Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[Quixotic1]

The Euro is more interesting than the GFS, if you want more rain! Different 500 mb setup over the next week or so but I don't see any reason to buy the dryer GFS at this point.

Was looking at the 12z operational. Had the upper level low ejecting right out over our area. Was praying for at least a hint of cold air to work with. Maybe some convection?

ETA: going to break out the calculator at the end of the year to see how statistically impressive this year's record rainfall is.

[aggiegeog]

For North/East Texas, December looks like it will average near normal temp wise with lows around 40 and highs around 55 with showers every few days. A couple borderline winter events are possible and maybe we sneak in a good cold bowling ball to give some snow. Definitely not a torch for us. Arctic air could become a factor late in the month or more likely early January. This should be a fun winter.

[bubba hotep]

For North/East Texas, December looks like it will average near normal temp wise with lows around 40 and highs around 55 with showers every few days. A couple borderline winter events are possible and maybe we sneak in a good cold bowling ball to give some snow. Definitely not a torch for us. Arctic air could become a factor late in the month or more likely early January. This should be a fun winter.

I haven't really looked at anything since before Thanksgiving but I have been leaning towards colder in the 2nd half of December.

[Quixotic1]

Cloud porn....

[bubba hotep]

Cloud porn....

Nice! Where is that from?

[bubba hotep]

Nice! Where is that from?

Ok, now I see it all over my Twitter feed No clouds out here in New Mexico

[Quixotic1]

Nice! Where is that from?

Eldorado and DNT. Facing the SW. Looked almost supercell-ish!

[1900hurricane]

The latest 240 hour ECMWF is something I can get behind.

[Quixotic1]

Ok, now I see it all over my Twitter feed No clouds out here in New Mexico

Any snow OTG?

[Quixotic1]

The latest 240 hour ECMWF is something I can get behind.

What did you like about it? I'll be honest: my map reading of anything but surface leaves much to be desired. I look for the 540 line and the freezing line at 850.

[1900hurricane]

60 kt low level jet is a good starting point. Of course, I am a severe weather guy.

[Quixotic1]

60 kt low level jet is a good starting point. Of course, I am a severe weather guy.

Touché. Probably a better shot you're way. Not sure about moisture availability up our way yet. Nothing better than thunder though.

[bubba hotep]

60 kt low level jet is a good starting point. Of course, I am a severe weather guy.

 

The parallel isn't nearly as juiced as the operational but I can't see upper level maps to tell if that is just timing differences or what. 

[bubba hotep]

Hmmm, models are turning dry for the 1st half of December but luckily no cold air will be wasted during that time.

[bubba hotep]

November temp anomalies are in and they don't really look like any Nino's outside of one...

 

Maybe I'm missing some other warm Novembers but most stronger Nino's had pretty widespread cold anomalies in November. 

[Captmorg70]

November temp anomalies are in and they don't really look like any Nino's outside of one...

What year Is it like?

[raindancewx]

It looks like backwards 1976 to me.

 

 

Bit like 1987

 

 

Bit like 1994

 

 

[bubba hotep]

I was thinking more 2009ish 

[Quixotic1]

I'm going to throw this out there as much as I hate that winter

[raindancewx]

NOAA has the PDO down to 0.47 for November 2015. Will be interesting to see what it is by JISAO. It's down quite a bit over both Nov 2014 and Oct 2015.

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

 

201411 1.29 201412 1.91 201501 1.73 201502 1.54 201503 1.33 201504 0.88 201505 0.29 201506 0.70 201507 1.20 201508 0.83 201509 0.86 201510 0.88 201511 0.47

[aggiegeog]

 

NOAA has the PDO down to 0.47 for November 2015. Will be interesting to see what it is by JISAO. It's down quite a bit over both Nov 2014 and Oct 2015.

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

 

201411 1.29 201412 1.91 201501 1.73 201502 1.54 201503 1.33 201504 0.88 201505 0.29 201506 0.70 201507 1.20 201508 0.83 201509 0.86 201510 0.88 201511 0.47

 

Interesting.

[raindancewx]

I'm going to throw this out there as much as I hate that winter

It's interesting to see the similarities with 1994 and 2009. I would argue 1987 is close too.

 

 

 

Bastardi had both 1994 and 2009 as lightly weighted analogs for the winter but who knows what he used for the Fall forecast.

[bubba hotep]

It's interesting to see the similarities with 1994 and 2009. I would argue 1987 is close too.

Bastardi had both 1994 and 2009 as lightly weighted analogs for the winter but who knows what he used for the Fall forecast.

I've never been big on '09 given the warmth across the NE Pacific this year. That area crashed hard in '09 but maybe this big Gulf of Alaska low will start working over those warm anomalies a bit.

[raindancewx]

I'm a big believer that in my area (NM), the PDO has to be "neutral" (+/-0.5) on average from Nov-Apr in order for us to get a lot of snow.

 

If you split ENSO & the PDO into nine categories from El Nino +PDO to La Nina -PDO, we do best in the "El Nino =PDO" phase. Neutral +PDO is actually very similar to El Nino Modoki in the SW from what I can see.

 

Most of our legendary winters happen with an =PDO and El Nino. In 1914-15 a weather station about three miles south of the airport in Albuquerque got 40" of snow. By my criteria, 1914-15 would also fit into the El Nino, =PDO phase.

 

Needless to say, I'm curious to see if JISAO shows a drop in the PDO for November like NCDC/NOAA. I do lean towards the PDO remaining in the 0.8-1.2 range for Nov-Apr on average, a less crazy level than last year, but still positive.

 

The AMO, when it's cold from Nov-Apr, tends to strong favor snowy Januaries here and un-snowy Decembers - so that is worth watching too. Figures below are for the Albuquerque airport.

 

 

  

[Quixotic1]

It's interesting to see the similarities with 1994 and 2009. I would argue 1987 is close too.

Bastardi had both 1994 and 2009 as lightly weighted analogs for the winter but who knows what he used for the Fall forecast.

I like 2009 and 87. Two out of three ain't bad. 12z runs looked hopeful. If the AO goes negative, game on. I see blocking starting to show up.

In 94-95 we had storms roll through. Think the NWS was caught off guard. Severe levels but it was 35 degrees and nothing but straight up rain. The possibilities.....

[aggiegeog]

I'm a big believer that in my area (NM), the PDO has to be "neutral" (+/-0.5) on average from Nov-Apr in order for us to get a lot of snow.

If you split ENSO & the PDO into nine categories from El Nino +PDO to La Nina -PDO, we do best in the "El Nino =PDO" phase. Neutral +PDO is actually very similar to El Nino Modoki in the SW from what I can see.

Most of our legendary winters happen with an =PDO and El Nino. In 1914-15 a weather station about three miles south of the airport in Albuquerque got 40" of snow. By my criteria, 1914-15 would also fit into the El Nino, =PDO phase.

Needless to say, I'm curious to see if JISAO shows a drop in the PDO for November like NCDC/NOAA. I do lean towards the PDO remaining in the 0.8-1.2 range for Nov-Apr on average, a less crazy level than last year, but still positive.

The AMO, when it's cold from Nov-Apr, tends to strong favor snowy Januaries here and un-snowy Decembers - so that is worth watching too. Figures below are for the Albuquerque airport.

Great post. Hard to say for sure with the small sample size, but the El Nino, neutral PDO does seemnto be good for y'all. I know the mountains had a great November this year, hope things pick back up by around Christmas.

[bubba hotep]

So the first victims of this Winter are those who went warm and dry in the NW? I wish I had some free time (and money) and could get away to Whistler for the next couple of weeks. 

 

[bubba hotep]

The MEI came in at 2.308 for November, only behind 1997 and 1982. Current mid/long range forecast seem to match up pretty well with '82 with cool W / warm E and above normal precip in the NW and lower Mississippi Valley. That certainly jives with where the models are placing the best precip with the next couple of systems (IMBY focused).

[raindancewx]

These are the splits in Albuquerque snowfall by AMO / Monsoon intensity (June 15-Sept 30 rain) for snow in El Nino years. The AMO controls January snowfall in El Nino years, with December tending to be quiet if January is to be snowy, and December tending to be snowy if January is to be quiet. The monsoon prior to an El Nino is a good indication of how much snow we get in our top month, ~9 inches is typical for a top snowfall month if the monsoon is active, while ~5 inches is typical for a top snowfall month if the monsoon is quiet.

 

 

 

[bubba hotep]

These are the splits in Albuquerque snowfall by AMO / Monsoon intensity (June 15-Sept 30 rain) for snow in El Nino years. The AMO controls January snowfall in El Nino years, with December tending to be quiet if January is to be snowy, and December tending to be snowy if January is to be quiet. The monsoon prior to an El Nino is a good indication of how much snow we get in our top month, ~9 inches is typical for a top snowfall month if the monsoon is active, while ~5 inches is typical for a top snowfall month if the monsoon is quiet.

Nice! One thing that I will be watching will be the AMO. When do we flip to -AMO? Texas generally does much better rain wise during the -AMO phase. Northern NM up into the Front Range looks to be iffy during the -AMO with the PDO phase playing a bigger role.