Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[Quixotic1]

So what kind of set up do you think? Detaching upper trough?

Not only is the vortex closer on the 18z but the high is stronger by 6 mb.

Honestly, I had no clue what the dynamic tropopause was. if I remember correctly, thicknesses favorable for snow are more dominant in +ENSO years, so if it's close, I'd bet the other way.

[jm1220]

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FOR THOSE WATCHING RAW MODEL OUTPUT THIS FAR

OUT...IT IS EASY TO NOTICE THAT TEMPERATURES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS

DROP BELOW FREEZING WHILE STILL INDICATING GOOD CHANCES FOR

PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THINK THAT OUR CHANCES

OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION ARE NOT QUITE AS GOOD AS RAW MODEL

GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING BECAUSE OF THE PROGGED POSITION OF THE

UPPER TROUGH ON THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE MAPS DURING THIS TIME. THE

DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE MAPS KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY

RESERVOIR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE SHALLOW COLD AIR CAN

CERTAINLY "OUT RUN" THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY RESERVOIR ALOFT...DEEP

COLD AIR WILL REMAIN TIED TO THIS RESERVOIR. THE DYNAMIC

TROPOPAUSE HELPS DETERMINE THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE...WHICH IS

MINIMIZED UNDER THE PV RESERVOIR ALOFT. A LOW THICKNESS

TROPOSPHERE DIRECTLY CORRELATES TO A COLDER AIRMASS ON

AVERAGE...MEANING THAT COLD AIR WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TIED TO THIS

FEATURE ALOFT. WITH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINING SOUTH OF THIS

RESERVOIR ALOFT...THINK THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR US TO RECEIVE DEEP

COLD AIR IS LOW...MAKING A COLD RAIN MORE LIKELY THAN A FROZEN

PRECIPITATION EVENT AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS

SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS.

 

You can see some changes in the DT maps from 12z to 18z:

 

12z

 

 

vs. 18z

 

 

You can see the changes in the DT maps from 12z to 18z and the corresponding changes at the surface. I agree with Cavanaugh and would like to see the tail of that PV streamer drag across N. Texas (esp. on the Euro!) before getting excited about this. Here is a good read on Texas snow setups http://www.nwas.org/digest/papers/2009/Vol33No1/Pg37-Ryan.pdf

It would be so hilarious that I miss sleet/ZR in Austin when up in NY where it rains ahead of the front (I'm heading back for Thanksgiving week). Not that I was ever a fan of freezing rain, but still...

[raindancewx]

Does anyone have a list of major snowstorms in (Old) Mexico? Trying to find out about famous/legendary snow storms down there. January 1967 was pretty famous but I don't know of many others.

 

Juarez and Chihuahua are hit fairly frequently with snow events but I've never been able to find Mexican snow records.

[Quixotic1]

Does anyone have a list of major snowstorms in (Old) Mexico? Trying to find out about famous/legendary snow storms down there. January 1967 was pretty famous but I don't know of many others.

 

Juarez and Chihuahua are hit fairly frequently with snow events but I've never been able to find Mexican snow records.

Wxmx would be a good person to ask.

[bubba hotep]

There appears to be somewhat better agreement b/w the 00z models on what will happen next week with the main threat for N. Texas being heavy rain. It looks like the record could finally fall with DFW only needing 2.80" to get the job done.

 

 

 

[David Reimer]

Cavanaugh has a good AFD for next weekend.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FWD&issuedby=FWD&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

He's awesome. Teaches quite a bit and talks about the possibility while keeping me grounded.

 

Enjoy it while you can! He'll be heading off to the Little Rock office as their new WCM in the coming months. A great promotion for him!

[Quixotic1]

Enjoy it while you can! He'll be heading off to the Little Rock office as their new WCM in the coming months. A great promotion for him!

Aww. Happy for him while at the same time, going to miss those AFDs of his.

[radarman]

Enjoy it while you can! He'll be heading off to the Little Rock office as their new WCM in the coming months. A great promotion for him!

Glad for him... he is awesome... unfortunate loss for the metro area however.

[Jebman]

You all can enjoy all the heavy snow in Texas, all i want for Thanksgiving is heavy rain. That's all I ask.

 

Of course, I'll receive fog and light drizzle. My rain bucket will total about a couple quadrillionths of an inch of rain.

Good news is -  NO flooding.

[bubba hotep]

There appears to be somewhat better agreement b/w the 00z models on what will happen next week with the main threat for N. Texas being heavy rain. It looks like the record could finally fall with DFW only needing 2.80" to get the job done.

 

 

 

The 12z Euro Op and the EPS mean are both over 3" #RecordBreaking 

[Chinook]

You all can enjoy all the heavy snow in Texas, all i want for Thanksgiving is heavy rain. That's all I ask.

 

Of course, I'll receive fog and light drizzle. My rain bucket will total about a couple quadrillionths of an inch of rain.

Good news is -  NO flooding.

Jebman, why don't you change your location on your profile? You talk about weather fairly often. What city are you in? Austin? San Antonio?

[raindancewx]

Might be time for me to take a ski trip soon. This is an interesting set up if you look at where the storms and highs are from the GFS

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS knocks the record out of the park with a grand slam of 6-7"+  and for good measure drops a foot plus of snow across the Panhandle  

[JoMo]

The GGEM and Euro are also very high on the TX Panhandle getting a lot of frozen precip. Not sure it would be all snow though.

[bubba hotep]

[David Reimer]

The 12Z GFS continues to look quite wet for the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday into the weekend. No doubt moisture from what is left of Rick and our upcoming tropical system will help. A fairly significant ice storm looks possible for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Based off forecast sounding data and the shallow arctic airmass anticipated I very much doubt there will be much in the way of snow accumulation in Texas. We'll have to watch the arctic airmass carefully since the shallow ones tend to hold a few surprises. Flooding seems like a good bet from the Big Country east through North and Northeast Texas by the weekend if the 5+ inch rain totals verify. Most locations have received a good freeze so vegetation will be dormant. Alas welcome to El Nino!

[David Reimer]

 

Two graphics from the 12Z GFS taking a look at Saturday morning. This morning's run of the GFS has light freezing rain falling across the Panhandle by early Friday morning. It picks up in intensity by Saturday morning resulting in more significant accumulations. The 06Z and 12Z GFS runs dropped over half an inch of freezing rain across the Panhandle into the northern half of the South Plains by Saturday. Obviously it is way too early to talk about specific accumulations but there certainly is the potential for a rather sizable event in those areas. I've included a sounding for Amarillo for Saturday morning off the 12Z GFS. You can clearly see the warmnose between 750 and 850 millibars. This sounding might indicate a switchover to sleet by this point but determining the exact precip. type isn't important this far in advance. A shallow cold airmass, an obvious warm nose, and impressive PWAT values for a late November event mean a variety of impacts possible across Texas by Friday-Saturday. 

[aggiegeog]

If things go according to the GFS the NM mountains will get another huge dumping of snow. At resort level they could be looking at another 2 feet plus.

[bubba hotep]

If things go according to the GFS the NM mountains will get another huge dumping of snow. At resort level they could be looking at another 2 feet plus.

 

I'll be up there the 1st week of December! but for work #boo I won't have time to snowboard but will try to get out for some pictures on a couple of afternoons. 

 

FWD cranking it up a notch! 

 

[aggiegeog]

I'll be up there the 1st week of December! but for work #boo I won't have time to snowboard but will try to get out for some pictures on a couple of afternoons. 

 

FWD cranking it up a notch! 

 

Amazing that in the year that look like it will go down as the wettest on record we had the driest 3 months on record in many locales.

[bubba hotep]

Amazing that in the year that look like it will go down as the wettest on record we had the driest 3 months on record in many locales.

 

Even crazier, if you buy into the analogs and the long range models then we will not only break the record but blow it away. I'm not sure how the stats work out but I'm sure someone out there can figure up the odds of betting the yearly record by 5, 6 or even 7"?!?! 

[Quixotic1]

Even crazier, if you buy into the analogs and the long range models then we will not only break the record but blow it away. I'm not sure how the stats work out but I'm sure someone out there can figure up the odds of betting the yearly record by 5, 6 or even 7"?!?! 

 

Figuring for beating it by 5", I come up with once every 642 years.

 

Beating it by 6" is once every 939 years.

 

Beating it by 7" is once ever 1388 years.  

 

I'm new to this stuff so, don't take it as gospel.  

[Chinook]

Two graphics from the 12Z GFS taking a look at Saturday morning. This morning's run of the GFS has light freezing rain falling across the Panhandle by early Friday morning. It picks up in intensity by Saturday morning resulting in more significant accumulations. The 06Z and 12Z GFS runs dropped over half an inch of freezing rain across the Panhandle

Today's 12z and 6z GFS also show sleet and freezing rain showing up at about midnight Thanksgiving, into Saturday (66hr forecast to 102 hour forecast) This is for the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and Kansas. Frozen travel-weekend?

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro is all kinds of crazy with 6 - 9" of rain across the DFW area.

[Chinook]

Football teams hosting games Thursday/Friday/Saturday that might be in the cold and/or rain

Texas (Thursday)

Nebraska (Friday)

TCU (Friday)

Houston (Friday)

Oklahoma (Saturday)

[Jebman]

Football teams hosting games Thursday/Friday/Saturday that might be in the cold and/or rain

Texas (Thursday)

Nebraska (Friday)

TCU (Friday)

Houston (Friday)

Oklahoma (Saturday)

The best and most entertaining football games are in the rain.

[wxmx]

Does anyone have a list of major snowstorms in (Old) Mexico? Trying to find out about famous/legendary snow storms down there. January 1967 was pretty famous but I don't know of many others.

 

Juarez and Chihuahua are hit fairly frequently with snow events but I've never been able to find Mexican snow records.

The January 1967 snowstorm is indeed the most famous among the 20th century snowstorms due to coverage and intensity. Mexico city, Guadalajara and Monterrey all received snowfall, plus almost half of the territory as well.

 

Some of the best known south TX snowstorms also affected Mexico, like Dec 2004 and especially Feb 1895. The latter holds the record of the most meridional snowfall at sea level in the Western Hemisphere (Tampico). In late Feb of 1894 there are records of a 80cm snowfall in Monterrey (31.5").

 

December 1997 also had a widespread snow event, but temps were borderline in a lot of cases.

 

A good chunk of Mexico's territory is well above sea level, so the northern plateau receives snow with some frequency (like Chihuahua and Ciudad Juarez, as well as Coahuila, Baja California, Sonora, Zacatecas, Nuevo León and Durango) even at levels around 3000 ft. The central plateau's snow events are much more rare, so even though Mexico city is at 7000+ feet asl, snow is pretty rare, other than in the places above 8500+ feet.

 

Snow in the coastal plains is almost unheard of, and probably places like Monterrey are where snow is a little more frequent (once a decade or so, including non accumulating snow). Coastal cities snow is once in a lifetime experience (like Matamoros in Dec 2004).

 

I don't think there's an official record of snow in Mexico available.

[nzucker]

The January 1967 snowstorm is indeed the most famous among the 20th century snowstorms due to coverage and intensity. Mexico city, Guadalajara and Monterrey all received snowfall, plus almost half of the territory as well.

Some of the best known south TX snowstorms also affected Mexico, like Dec 2004 and especially Feb 1895. The latter holds the record of the most meridional snowfall at sea level in the Western Hemisphere (Tampico). In late Feb of 1894 there are records of a 80cm snowfall in Monterrey (31.5").

December 1997 also had a widespread snow event, but temps were borderline in a lot of cases.

A good chunk of Mexico's territory is well above sea level, so the northern plateau receives snow with some frequency (like Chihuahua and Ciudad Juarez, as well as Coahuila, Baja California, Sonora, Zacatecas, Nuevo León and Durango) even at levels around 3000 ft. The central plateau's snow events are much more rare, so even though Mexico city is at 7000+ feet asl, snow is pretty rare, other than in the places above 8500+ feet.

Snow in the coastal plains is almost unheard of, and probably places like Monterrey are where snow is a little more frequent (once a decade or so, including non accumulating snow). Coastal cities snow is once in a lifetime experience (like Matamoros in Dec 2004).

I don't think there's an official record of snow in Mexico available.

People forget how much elevation much of Mexico has...there is permanent snow in much of the Cordillera Neovolcanica, which includes Orizaba (18,491'), Iztaccihuatl (17,160'), and Popocateptl (17,802'). The highest 4,000-5,000' of these mountains is often snowcapped during winter, and the peaks hold snow year round.

It can also snow frequently in the mountainous altiplano of northern Mexico, as well as higher parts of the Sierra Madre Occidental, which hits 10,000' in a few areas. Cities such as Chihuahua and the suburbs of Monterey are in the 4,000-6,000' elevation band which makes snowfall at least marginally possible. The higher mountains surrounding Monterrey are snow-covered in many winters.

Even southern parts of the interior altiplano, such as Mexico City in January 1967, can receive snowfall. It also snowed in the Federal District on March 5, 1940. The Cumbres de Ajusco National Park just outside Mexico City, which reaches 12,795' at Cerro Cruz de Marquez, has frequent winter snow. Southern suburbs of Mexico City have frosts and freezes nearly every winter due to their higher elevation and more forested character.

It can even snow on Baja California around 6,000' of elevation when strong Pacific storms drag a cold trough through California, leaving behind moisture. Snow cover satellite images occasionally show a few pixels of white in Baja.

Mexico is a fascinating example of how elevation affects climate since it's close to the equator yet filled with mountainous terrain. Copper Canyon is tropical at its bottom with semi-alpine ecosystems at its top, for example.

[Jebman]

Jebman, why don't you change your location on your profile? You talk about weather fairly often. What city are you in? Austin? San Antonio?

I am currently in Buda which is about 15-20 miles SSW of AUS on I 35.

I will be heading back ENE to Dale City, Virginia on Dec 15. Northern VA is going to get SWAMPED by immense amounts of rain from this very strong Nino, and I am going to be lovin' it. That is why I never change my location info, lol.

 

Dallas should get plenty of rain late week and this weekend. i think I'll eke out a quarter inch by early Monday. Austin has got to be one of the driest places in Texas.

[bubba hotep]

Wild! One thing I noticed this week while out on a trail run was how saturated the ground still is, like a sponge in many places. Also, many of the area surface ponds and small lakes are full to the rim! There will be almost 100% runoff from this event...