Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[bubba hotep]

We got it pretty good last night but have been getting hammered all morning! However, it looks like it has been even worse just a few miles to my SE.

 

 

NWS Fort Worth ‏@NWSFortWorth  4m4 minutes ago

8 AM:Rockwall has picked up 2.7 inches of rain today. Royse City has 2.46 in the last hour alone

 

 

ETA: FWD Update

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
902 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

.UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA WHERE HI RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ROCKWALL COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN COLLIN COUNTY HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR OR TWO AND THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS
NOW MOVING INTO HUNT AND FANNIN COUNTIES. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAYSON TO
COLLIN COUNTY THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO INCREASED POPS IN
AND AROUND THE WATCH AREA.

TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREA...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING BUT
ARE STRUGGLING TO PERSIST VERY LONG...LIKELY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAIN AREA AND THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED RAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA. THE 12Z FWD
SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR STORM BUT THE
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTSIDE OF OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD BE
REALATIVELY BRIEF IN TIMING GIVEN THE SHORTER LIVED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION.

JLDUNN

[bubba hotep]

We lucked out here in the DFW area with these totals:

 

 

Even with these lower totals there are reports of flooding around the area. This would have been an unimaginable disaster, if we would have received the area wide 6-8" with localized 8-10" totals that were being tossed around a couple of days ago. 

 

Getting the areas Bill forgot about!

 

[bubba hotep]

And the rain just keeps on coming, seeing reports of 8"+ in areas! This system was totally missed by the models, I don't think any  model had more than +0.5" of rain for N. Texas today.

 

 

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0258
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN TX...SOUTHERN OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 211844Z - 212200Z

SUMMARY...VERY SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM
FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEFINED AND VERY SLOW MOVING VORT ACROSS
NORTHEAST TX HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING A
COMPACT CLUSTER OF VERY INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTREMELY HIGH RAINFALL RATES REACHING OVER 3 INCHES/HR HAVE BEEN
NOTED WITH THE ACTIVITY...AND THIS HAS BEEN RESULTING IN SOME VERY
HIGH STORM TOTALS SO FAR THAT ARE LOCALLY APPROACHING 8 INCHES
BASED ON DUAL-POL ESTIMATES.

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE OVERALL VORT TRACKING SLOWLY
TO THE WEST...AND THIS SHOULD DRIVE THE STRONGER CORES OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION GRADUALLY OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE NOT DONE WELL IN
HANDLING THE ONGOING CONVECTION AS THEY HAVE INSISTED ON THE
CONVECTION FOCUSING FARTHER EAST AND WEAKENING RAPIDLY.
SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION HAS NOT OCCURRED YET...AND
WITH NEW INSTABILITY DRIVEN CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE COMPACT MCS FEATURE...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PWATS ARE NEAR 2 INCHES AND THERE IS A PERSISTENT 25 TO 30 KT FEED
OF SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW INTO THE CONVECTIVE CORES NEAR THE VORT
CENTER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE VERY INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES...AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES LOCALLY
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

ORRISON

[bubba hotep]

NWS Fort Worth ‏@NWSFortWorth  5m5 minutes ago

2:18 PM Texas DPS reporting a bridge collapse in Hunt County. Highway 118 between CR 4414 and 4411. No injuries.

 

[jm1220]

Gusty T-storms in Austin now-I'd say up to 40 mph or so where I am. 

[bubba hotep]

We are getting hammered pretty good right now! This was a massive fail for the HRRR (unless it changed its tune in the last couple of hours) ;

[bubba hotep]

From FWD:

 

[bubba hotep]

[cstrunk]

Holy cow. I don't know if I've ever been in a thunderstorm with so many close CG lightning strikes. Very intense. I'm glad my yard is getting the first good soaking in about a month.

[bubba hotep]

Holy cow. I don't know if I've ever been in a thunderstorm with so many close CG lightning strikes. Very intense. I'm glad my yard is getting the first good soaking in about a month.

 

There was some crazy lightning with that system for sure!

[DoctorMu]

The front has been pretty much a bust so far in CLL.  Just a trace of rain yet no reduction in humidity.  Mon-Wed could yield a shower or two as the front regresses and stalls.  A chance of a stray shower this pm.

 

HOU saw rain last night and early this morning. Good lightning show to the south last night.

[bubba hotep]

Is this a new SPC graphic? I have never seen it before:

 

[bubba hotep]

This place is dead! We got a surprise storm on Tuesday morning and ended up with close to an inch of rain. Then that afternoon we just missed getting a nice downpour from a little cell that popped up but stayed to our SW:

 

 

[cstrunk]

I've only had one good rain in the past month IMBY, from the crazy lightning storm last week. My yard could definitely use another soaking. Hopefully I can score one this weekend (just hope it doesn't ruin any fireworks shows!). Seems like everywhere around me has been getting the occasional heavy thunderstorm.

[bubba hotep]

The morning storms moving across the Red River should leave an outflow boundary across the northern burbs of DFW. Maybe we can score some afternoon storms 

 

ETA: Newest update expands the "slight" to cover a good portion of DFW

[bubba hotep]

Latest run of the HRRR drops anywhere from 0.25 - 2" of rain across DFW this afternoon and evening. Below is what FWD is thinking for later on

 

[cstrunk]

Latest run of the HRRR drops anywhere from 0.25 - 2" of rain across DFW this afternoon and evening. Below is what FWD is thinking for later on

 

 

Not much to talk about so far. Maybe something will develop overnight.

[DoctorMu]

Just a trace of rain yesterday and 0.3 in on the 1st.  Sprinklers may have to be engaged tonight or tomorrow.  This would be the latest start date I can remember.  

 

21.27 inches since April 12 and 7.0 inches in June.  Just hope there isn't famine after the feast.

 

 

Just a tease late week NW of DFW and SE of CLL

 

[cstrunk]

Just a trace of rain yesterday and 0.3 in on the 1st.  Sprinklers may have to be engaged tonight or tomorrow.  This would be the latest start date I can remember.  

 

21.27 inches since April 12 and 7.0 inches in June.  Just hope there isn't famine after the feast.

 

 

Just a tease late week NW of DFW and SE of CLL

 

Me too. After a wet spring, summer has taken firm hold IMBY. 2 inches at best in June. My lawn could use a drink. It doesn't look like it'll be getting one anytime soon.

[bubba hotep]

Boo the 18z GFS!

 

RUN TIME: 07/09/2015 18Z Dallas / Fort Worth- Dallas / Fort Worth International Airport,TX,United States
 

16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 0 " and Convective: 0 "

[DoctorMu]

Boo the 18z GFS!

 

RUN TIME: 07/09/2015 18Z Dallas / Fort Worth- Dallas / Fort Worth International Airport,TX,United States

 

16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 0 " and Convective: 0 "

 

The Death Ridge is settling in.  

 

Boring, Hot, Dry...we'll be on our knees begging for tropical weather systems within 10 days.

[cstrunk]

The Death Ridge is settling in.  

 

Boring, Hot, Dry...we'll be on our knees begging for tropical weather systems within 10 days.

 

We got Bill and he severely disappointed me. Definitely need a tropical wave to head this way soon.

[DoctorMu]

We got Bill and he severely disappointed me. Definitely need a tropical wave to head this way soon.

 

The GFS is bleak through 7/29.

 

This is the best fantasy coverage I could find, and that doesn't help either of us.

 

[Quixotic1]

That's like an October CFS snowfall map.  

[bubba hotep]

So '83 is fading rapidly as an analog, since it was weakening heading into the winter months and this El Nino is certainly not showing any signs of weakening...  I'm starting to think N. Texas will be very 2014ish with lots of borderline events that stay in the "oh what could've been" category of 34 - 36 degrees. However, will we get lucky like we did this past winter with that one really good stretch that basically saved us. Also, HM made an interesting post on Twitter this afternoon for those of you who are into the QBO:

 

NDJ surface temp anomalies for Nino years. Left is E to W QBO and right is W to E QBO, long term-wise.

 

[cstrunk]

Really looking forward to 100F temperatures this weekend... Not! 

[Quixotic1]

So '83 is fading rapidly as an analog, since it was weakening heading into the winter months and this El Nino is certainly not showing any signs of weakening...  I'm starting to think N. Texas will be very 2014ish with lots of borderline events that stay in the "oh what could've been" category of 34 - 36 degrees. However, will we get lucky like we did this past winter with that one really good stretch that basically saved us. Also, HM made an interesting post on Twitter this afternoon for those of you who are into the QBO:

 

NDJ surface temp anomalies for Nino years. Left is E to W QBO and right is W to E QBO, long term-wise.

 

Analogs are kinda gruesome. 

ENSO is up in the air.  We are typically cooler, however it's mostly due to all the rain.  A Super Nino would almost guarantee the whole country gets flooded with pacific air.  I'm not liking the placement either.  Right now it looks basin wide but it could easily go east based.  that would be awful..

EPO still looks hopeful.

Solar looks good.  Maybe the drop in solar can get some high latitude blocking from the AO and NAO?

PDO looks hopeful.  

Not sure what the QBO will mean.  I thought the sun's activity had a big impact on that.

 

 

I'm hoping for 87-88 or 2002-2003.  97-98, 94-95, 82-83 were disasters.  

 

I am becoming Ji.  

[bubba hotep]

I'm about to lose my mind! I'm done with summer

[DoctorMu]

Some potential relief on the was for E Texas and HGX area as the upper level ridge begins to break down...and eventually move West young man!   There are some westward bound showers crossing the LA border this afternoon.  Thursday - Sunday have the highest pops in SE TX.    20-30%, but we'll take anything at this point.

 

Once the front becomes a trough in the Gulf, we could see even more Gulf moisture and showers in early August.

 

Long term forecast through March from NOAA brings  with confidence the stereotypical El Niño late fall/winter - cool, wet

 

 

Upper level ridge which has dominated TX weather since the first week of July is starting to give some ground and with that cooler temperatures and better chances for rainfall. 

Upper level heat ridge which has been anchored over TX for weeks has shifted just enough to the NNE to allow for a weak disturbance and deeper moisture to arrive into SE TX from the east. Tail end of a weak boundary that has drifted into the northern Gulf and across central FL and then extends WNW toward the SW LA coast. LCH morning sounding came in with a respected 2.3 in PWS, but there is a strong moisture gradient over SE TX with CRP sounding showing 1.6 in. Deepest moisture is along and E of I-45, but spreading westward. Radar from Houston, Lake Charles, and Fort Polk all show at least a couple of westward moving boundaries from storms yesterday and overnight over SE LA which have migrated W to WSW. Visible images show these boundaries and their associated enhanced cumulus growth. HRRR and TX TECH models are in agreement on storms developing over W LA/Sabine River region and moving WSW to SW on the southern side of the upper level ridge now centered over NE OK. Expect storms to develop on old outflow boundaries once convective temperatures in the mid 90’s are reached. Sub cloud layer is somewhat dry and will support gusty downburst winds as is common with SW moving thunderstorms this time of year. Main question is how far SW will storms be able to penetrate into the area of drier air and subsidence which is clearly noted over C TX. Think areas east of I-45 have the greatest chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms with chances quickly dropping west of I-45. Recently…within the last 15 minutes storms have begun to form over Newton, Co TX which gives support to the model guidance suggesting isolated to scattered late day activity.

As for the heat…BUSH IAH topped 99 on Saturday…the hottest of 2015. Afternoon heat index values continue to bump up against heat advisory criteria of 108, but are not widespread enough for an official advisory. Most areas are maxing out in the 103-106 range for a few hours between 3-6pm each day. While it is hot…it is late July…and high temperatures are only running a couple degrees above average. 

Could see some additional activity on Monday with the upper ridge remaining just north of the region. Will not go any higher than 20% since subsidence will still need to be overcome and would like to see how this afternoon plays out and just how for storms are able to move into SE TX.  

Upper ridge builds back SW into TX mid week and then on to the SW US by late week into next weekend as a strong northern stream short wave drives into the Midwest and helps carve out a deep eastern US trough. With the ridge building west this opens the door for a cool front to move down the plains and toward SE TX Friday-Sunday. Boundary will likely become diffuse as it nears the region, but will certainly be able to work with increasing moisture to produce the best chance of rain the area has seen in 3-4 weeks. Increased cloud cover and thunderstorms will help cool afternoon highs away from the upper 90’s and return heat index values to more manageable levels. 

Suspect this boundary/trough axis will likely migrate off the Gulf coast and into the northern Gulf waters by this time next week. This may allow for a brief period of offshore winds and slightly lower dewpoints (less humid). Such a trough would need to be monitored for any sort of tropical system formation since it will be early August over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

[jm1220]

This could finally be the day Austin hits 100-currently 97 at Camp Mabry with a couple of hours of heating left. We've hit 98-99 numerous times in the last couple of weeks.