Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[bubba hotep]

I am not impressed. There will be busts, busts everywhere. It is just barreling north, and radar estimates show basically an inch for most people so far over DFW. Another couple hours and it's done. 

 

2-isolated 3 inches in spots. Nowhere near the 3-5 or 4-6 everybody was forecasting. Not even enough to cause flooding.

 

There was a huge area of convection yesterday evening anchored offshore of Corpus and it is still going this morning. Radar is indicating 15"+ offshore in that area! My guess is that area of convection disrupted inflow to Bill as it moved north and prevented it from being as proficient of a rain producer as anticipated. 

[NTXYankee]

Yeah, this seems more typical of a complex of storms, nothing major really, probably a good thing.

[jm1220]

1.25"-2" of rain generally across Austin this morning. This afternoon may be quite active if the sun can heat things up for a while-models indicate the possibility for training and heavy rain amounts under storms.

[Roy]

Yeah, I bet those storms to the south did disrupt a bit. Definitely been raining pretty decently for awhile, but just not enough to really add up fast. At the same time, don't want historic flooding either.

[DoctorMu]

Looks like it's training all the way down to Matagorda bay almost.. interested in how that band sets up as it gets closer to the metroplex.. if a band like that sets up in Dallas or Tarrant counties, then i could easily see how the 5-6" of rain verifies

 

 

The stream moved east of CLL about 1:30 am.  Received 4 " of rain IMBY.  It could have easily been 6-8"

[NinjaWarrior2]

0z RGEM had Houston getting 15-16" of Rain in 18 hours, no joke.

[bubba hotep]

There was a huge area of convection yesterday evening anchored offshore of Corpus and it is still going this morning. Radar is indicating 15"+ offshore in that area! My guess is that area of convection disrupted inflow to Bill as it moved north and prevented it from being as proficient of a rain producer as anticipated. 

 

And that area is still rocking! Good thing that set up offshore or there would have been massive flooding.

 

 

[Jebman]

Pretty sure I'll see wall to wall sunshine today here in Buda. I'll top out around 88-90. Not a bad Texas spring day in mid June. East Texas better get to buildin' that ark. That feeder band aint gonna move all day.

 

We dodged this one. Water vapor says no more rain for me, i am on the wrong side of this storm if I want rain. Go south or east, young man, lol

[Quixotic1]

C'mon guys! A June tropical event isn't something you see every year. Pretty circulation to it.

[radarman]

Center of rotation passed SW of Ft. Worth near Cleburne... Not really a shocker for 2015...

 

[DoctorMu]

C'mon guys! A June tropical event isn't something you see every year. Pretty circulation to it.

 

The center of circulation flew by CLL late last night.  Gusts to 40 mph.  Our cat was freaking out.

 

That impressive cluster of storms continues to lurk just to our south.

[DoctorMu]

I am not impressed. There will be busts, busts everywhere. It is just barreling north, and radar estimates show basically an inch for most people so far over DFW. Another couple hours and it's done. 

 

2-isolated 3 inches in spots. Nowhere near the 3-5 or 4-6 everybody was forecasting. Not even enough to cause flooding.

 

4.1 in. total now IMBY, but that seems to be the exception in the Brazos Valley.  Bill's brief stay was a wham bam thank you m'am.

[Roy]

It was pretty on radar and pretty windy as well. Ended up with 2.5 inches or so, with some areas higher here in North Fort Worth, so there were some decent totals. Dallas sure got shafted though...lol.

 

Anybody able to explain why the heaviest rain was on the west side of the center?

[Quixotic1]

The center of circulation flew by CLL late last night.  Gusts to 40 mph.  Our cat was freaking out.

 

That impressive cluster of storms continues to lurk just to our south.

So DFW Obs: temp of 79, dew at 75. Wind out of the south at 25 gusting to 38. Pretty impressive dew point.

I'm wondering where those storms are heading. My guess is they'll wander NE.

[jm1220]

Flood Advisory for Austin, training cells with up to 2" more rain already in some places.

[dan11295]

Some very heavy rainfall NW of Fort Worth now, Bowie picked up 1.03" last hour. (1.73" in 2 hours). Also looks like Bill has begun the turn to the NE.

[Jebman]

As usual it has taken the infinite wisdom of the National Weather Service 48 hours to comprehend what I knew all along starting on Monday, lmao. NOW they call for 1-3 inches of rain across our area - and how much have i received in Buda so far? Not even one quarter of an inch?

 

I knew all along that this was an east Texas, maybe northeast Texas event.

 

Duh. And I'm not even from the Southwest.

[bubba hotep]

We lucked out here in the DFW area with these totals:

 

 

Even with these lower totals there are reports of flooding around the area. This would have been an unimaginable disaster, if we would have received the area wide 6-8" with localized 8-10" totals that were being tossed around a couple of days ago. 

[jm1220]

Serious flooding now in north and east Austin-creeks are overflowing again, and reports coming in of water rescues. Some spots have 4" of rain so far under training cells. I'm being missed on the SW side of town by a few miles at most.

[bubba hotep]

Serious flooding now in north and east Austin-creeks are overflowing again, and reports coming in of water rescues. Some spots have 4" of rain so far under training cells. I'm being missed on the SW side of town by a few miles at most.

 

Saw some pictures from that area just now, crazy! Esp. how small the training cells are. Once again, Texas really lucked out for the most part with Bill. Can't imagine what we would be seeing if they higher totals would have panned out. 

[1900hurricane]

Texas really has lucked out so far with regards to heavy rainfall. Even with some areas seeing around a foot of rainfall so far, things could have been way worse last night. A band/thunderstorm cluster set up offshore and dropped some really mind-boggling rainfall (Dual-Pol estimates, which in some cases still have been underestimating totals with respect to observed measurements, indicated as much as 24-30 inches of rain fell in the band last night!), but it ended up hogging the majority of the moist inflow. If that band hadn't set up offshore, it's likely the areas downsteam of the low-level flow from its location could have seen double the rainfall or perhaps even more.

 

Here's a grab from Radarscope from earlier today that I pulled from my Twitter account of KCRP radar Dual-Pol rainfall estimates. That band really stands out. Time is in UTC.

 

[bubba hotep]

Sun is out and we are picking up our highest gust so far... maybe the remnants of the old eye?  

[Snowlover11]

On tvn weather chad as some crazy flash flooding, a car is slowly moving down th road

[CranberryWX]

Just a little over 2" total in my back yard spread out over two days.

[jm1220]

http://interactives.kxan.com/photomojo/gallery/20163/1/

 

Some photos of Austin-area flooding. 

[aggiegeog]

I got 2.6" out of the system, about what was expected.

[cstrunk]

I got 2.6" out of the system, about what was expected.

 

I probably got 0.25" at most. Very spotty in this area.

[aggiegeog]

I probably got 0.25" at most. Very spotty in this area.

Yep, the coastal band cut off the moisture which did not allow the expected band to really set up.

[bheberto]

Crazy month of rain in Texas that erased the drought. Here's a viz of CoCoRaHS data over the last five years, check out May 2015: 

 

More charts / stats can be found here. 

[bubba hotep]

Nice little surprise storm this evening with a good bit of lightning and good soaking. Didn't look like much as it blew in but really blossomed as it moved into Collin County.