Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[1900hurricane]

Anywhere east of the I35 corridor that picks up significant rainfall over the next few days could really have issues by the end of the week. Could be significant tropical rainfall from whatever eventually comes out of the Gulf.

 

Yeah, to emphasize this point, the 12Z ECMWF puts down a swath of a foot plus of rainfall near and just east of the center of a landfalling tropical storm.

[David Reimer]

Things are looking much more interesting for East and Southeast Texas this upcoming week. in all likelihood we will see a weak tropical system develop which will move towards the Texas coast. A relative non-event for the tropical weenies but significant because it's going to bring a crazy amount of moisture inland. It's worth noting the Trinity River from Dallas to the coast is still running near or in flood. Looks like May won't be our only rainy month after all. 

[jm1220]

Creeks came out of their banks again this morning in Austin. Doesn't look to be as bad as Memorial Day weekend, but it shows how vulnerable we still are after all the rain last month. If this potential tropical system impacts us, we're screwed. Looks for now like that will be focused on east Texas. 

[DoctorMu]

Things are looking much more interesting for East and Southeast Texas this upcoming week. in all likelihood we will see a weak tropical system develop which will move towards the Texas coast. A relative non-event for the tropical weenies but significant because it's going to bring a crazy amount of moisture inland. It's worth noting the Trinity River from Dallas to the coast is still running near or in flood. Looks like May won't be our only rainy month after all. 

 

Yep, virtually every model has 91L trucking towards the SE Texas. Then moving just west of I-45 through the heart of Texas.

 

Major dumpage ahead.  T-storms should move briskly,with accumulation expected to be substantial, and thus a risk of flooding expected around Houston.

 

 

Whole lotta lemon-ade expected:

 

[bubba hotep]

O6z GFS would be a wild ride for the DFW area!

[NTXYankee]

O6z GFS would be a wild ride for the DFW area!

12z continued that trend as well and FWD made mention of the shift west in the heavy rain from 06 output. Going to be interesting.

[bubba hotep]

00z GFS has DFW in the NE quadrant, max winds of whatever is left plus a tornado threat. Looks like 6-7"+ area wide. 

[jhamps10]

00z GFS has DFW in the NE quadrant, max winds of whatever is left plus a tornado threat. Looks like 6-7"+ area wide. 

 

Start building the arc now I guess

[jm1220]

This area could be in some very serious trouble if the latest predictions pan out. If the low tracks over Hays County or just south of there and trains huge rain over the source regions for the rivers that massively flooded last month, this could be round 2 for places like Wimberley. The creeks and rivers around Austin are in serious danger too. The SE flow on the northeast side will have an orographic lift component and training potential into the Hill Country. 

[Jebman]

I have never seen South Central Texas this wet since I started making trips down here to visit relatives beginning back in the early 1980s. There is standing water on some fields down here, and now Tropical Storm Bill will bring several inches of rain over already saturated ground. It's been HELL tryin' to keep up with mowing the lawn down here! I'll be down here in South Central Texas until at least late November, lol

[Jebman]

This area could be in some very serious trouble if the latest predictions pan out. If the low tracks over Hays County or just south of there and trains huge rain over the source regions for the rivers that massively flooded last month, this could be round 2 for places like Wimberley. The creeks and rivers around Austin are in serious danger too. The SE flow on the northeast side will have an orographic lift component and training potential into the Hill Country. 

Onion Creek still has a goodly amount of water in it. I am beginning to wonder if this could get as bad as October 30-31, 2013 for Onion Creek in Buda.

[canderson]

I'm a bit concerned about Lake Lewisville. Adding 6" or so to it will I'd imagine lead to even more widespread flooding that they saw in late May.

[bubba hotep]

I actually like '83 - 84 a lot after looking a things a bit more. I'm thinking '57, '83, '87, '91 and '14 right now.

The precip for JJA, 3 of the years had tropical systems landfall in the upper Texas coastal area and that is probably skewing things a good bit:

We are getting our tropical system to skew things

[jm1220]

Still a fair amount of uncertainty for rain amounts today and tomorrow. 6z models seemed to shift the axis east a bit and mostly have the huge rain axis east of Bastrop, but the storm seems to be wobbling west a bit this morning and may come in west of Matagorda Bay. The models also might be turning this north a bit faster. It's probably good news for Blanco and Hays counties southwest of here.

[kayman]

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161248Z - 161515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES THIS MORNING...RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM BILL. THE
ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL IS NEARING THE MIDDLE
TX COAST AS OF 1240Z...AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NWWD TODAY
WHILE MAKING LANDFALL. MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION
HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE SERN SEMICIRCLE OF T.S. BILL -- MAINLY OVER
THE GULF WATERS. AS SUCH...INLAND PRECIPITATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WIDESPREAD AMIDST THE BROAD NERN QUADRANT OF T.S. BILL. THIS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION BETWEEN GENERALLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN BANDS...AS NWD FLUXES OF HIGH
THETA-E AIR ACCOMPANIED BY MIDDLE 70S SFC DEWPOINTS EXTEND FARTHER
INLAND WITH TIME GIVEN THE MOTION OF T.S. BILL. AS SUCH...AN OVERALL
UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE RELATED TO T.S. BILL
EXISTS.

MEANWHILE...REGIONAL VWPS AND 12Z RAOBS SAMPLE THE BROAD...STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF T.S. BILL...BETWEEN
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE TN
VALLEY/PORTIONS OF THE SERN CONUS. GIVEN THE MODEST FORWARD MOTION
OF T.S. BILL...THIS WILL SUSTAIN A FAIRLY BROAD...INLAND-ADVANCING
ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. WITH AROUND 20-30
KT OF 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE VWPS/RAOBS -- LOCALLY
ENHANCED WHERE BACKED/ELY SFC WINDS EXIST ALSO BOLSTERING LOW-LEVEL
SRH -- THE RISK FOR A FEW MINI-SUPERCELL TORNADOES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING AS DIABATIC SFC HEATING OCCURS IN THE
MOIST-NEUTRAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED AT
SOME TIME TODAY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SUCH ISSUANCE MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO. THE 12Z RAOB AT LCH
ALREADY SAMPLED AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AND IT MAY TAKE VERY
LITTLE SFC HEATING FOR THE TORNADO RISK TO INCREASE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AND RELATED THETA-E DEFICITS AND
INSUFFICIENT CLOUD BREAKS COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF A GREATER TORNADO
RISK UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY -- ESPECIALLY IN ERN TX. AS SUCH...THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/16/2015


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 29249424 28729614 29159676 30409749 31119759 31729695
31959516 31629363 30309232 29589258 29249424 

 

 

Seems like the Storm Prediction Center is monitoring the possibility of isolated tornadoes and possible severe storms with the landfall of T.S. Bill in Southeastern Texas. 

[Jebman]

It's starting here in Buda which is about 20 miles south of AUS along I-35. These tropical showers are highly efficient rain producers.

[jm1220]

0.75" in an hour in parts of Austin with the first feeder band.

[jm1220]

1.2" of rain downtown now and 0.75" at the airport. Starting to become a little optimistic however that most of the rest of what falls will be east of here. Short range models are pretty enthusiastically keeping the heavy rain closer to Hwy 77 and I-45 and away from the creeks and rivers in the Hill Country. The storm is also finally making a pronounced north turn on radar. More showers like these will get us to 2" maybe but nothing like what east of us will see.

[Jebman]

Sun is out here in Buda, this is starting to make me think that most of the rain will be east as TS Bill continues on a due north trajectory. I'll probably see only an inch or so here. We lucked out with the first feeder band which barely dropped a quarter of an inch. Thats not too bad, but unfortunately for communities farther east, torrential flood provoking rainfall with be common. i've been pretty sure all along that most of this rain would be well east of Buda. We can easily handle 1 inch of additional rain.

[Quixotic1]

Watching from afar in Leicester UK.

Saw AFD mention may 1990. That was the worst flooding I had ever seen. 20, 30, 35, and 45 were all under water. Bill could do that if it pans out right (or wrong). Huge areas of South Dallas were washed away. I think the corp of engineers has fixed the levy problems since.

Good luck to everyone. Hope it's interesting without being dangerous.

[Roy]

Will be interesting to see the totals we get out of this. It seems to me the totals from the media are way too high west of Tarrant County....they have 3-4 inches for Parker etc., while the system is producing hardly nothing west of the track and it's going to go maybe as far east as far western Tarrant when it goes north. It may track right over my house, which would limit my amounts a bit from what they are forecasting. I definitely think Dallas County will get drenched, as well as far eastern Tarrant and on north.

[jhamps10]

Will be interesting to see the totals we get out of this. It seems to me the totals from the media are way too high west of Tarrant County....they have 3-4 inches for Parker etc., while the system is producing hardly nothing west of the track and it's going to go maybe as far east as far western Tarrant when it goes north. It may track right over my house, which would limit my amounts a bit from what they are forecasting. I definitely think Dallas County will get drenched, as well as far eastern Tarrant and on north.

 

the way I understand the system is going to develop the moisture on the west side overnight... West of Parker county I tend to agree may be overdone but we'll see... 

[Jebman]

It now appears that the very heavy rain will pass well east of AUS overnight. We here in Buda have seen a tenth of an inch of rain so far today. We have seen plenty of sunshine and clouds. My thinking is that the heavy rain axis will be located well east of Austin and will smash into Dallas throughout Wednesday as the storm moves due north. The areas that do get the torrential tropical rains, the communities well east of Austin, will get 3 to 6 inches over the next 48 hours or so. But for us locally, probably hit or miss shower activity, with perhaps an inch or so of rain by early Thursday. In Austin and Buda, probably some small stream flash flooding which will be short lived thanks to the heavier rain staying well east of us throughout this event.

 

Pray hard for Dallas and the Trinity River and for ppl who live near that watercourse. It looks like they are all in the crosshairs of Bill overnight and through Wednesday.

 

i do not know Texas weather the way I know Virginia weather, but it does seem that the local NWS kind of overforecasted rain amounts here in and near AUS and near Buda where I am. Three to six inches of rain does seem a bit of a stretch, given radar trends today and given actual empirical ground truth and given that the really heavy bands have stayed well east all day long.

[jm1220]

It now appears that the very heavy rain will pass well east of AUS overnight. We here in Buda have seen a tenth of an inch of rain so far today. We have seen plenty of sunshine and clouds. My thinking is that the heavy rain axis will be located well east of Austin and will smash into Dallas throughout Wednesday as the storm moves due north. The areas that do get the torrential tropical rains, the communities well east of Austin, will get 3 to 6 inches over the next 48 hours or so. But for us locally, probably hit or miss shower activity, with perhaps an inch or so of rain by early Thursday. In Austin and Buda, probably some small stream flash flooding which will be short lived thanks to the heavier rain staying well east of us throughout this event.

 

Pray hard for Dallas and the Trinity River and for ppl who live near that watercourse. It looks like they are all in the crosshairs of Bill overnight and through Wednesday.

 

i do not know Texas weather the way I know Virginia weather, but it does seem that the local NWS kind of overforecasted rain amounts here in and near AUS and near Buda where I am. Three to six inches of rain does seem a bit of a stretch, given radar trends today and given actual empirical ground truth and given that the really heavy bands have stayed well east all day long.

We'll probably see more tomorrow with the developing afternoon storms and any bands on the south side, but agreed-the danger for more than minor flooding should be done here. It looks like a period of heavier rain may be pushing into at least the eastern part of town. 

[jm1220]

On a knife edge in Austin-definitely some good rain in Williamson, Bastrop and NE Travis Counties but the city fringed with some showers. Looks like some may be developing to the SW, but hard for me to see how more than another inch falls tonight around the city. The precip shield is on the move and isn't that large in size. 

[DoctorMu]

Get on board.  Significant training around CLL.

 

Bill has picked up the pace, but we're going to ride this band for awhile.  Gusty winds.

[jhamps10]

Get on board.  Significant training around CLL.

 

Bill has picked up the pace, but we're going to ride this band for awhile.  Gusty winds.

 

Looks like it's training all the way down to Matagorda bay almost.. interested in how that band sets up as it gets closer to the metroplex.. if a band like that sets up in Dallas or Tarrant counties, then i could easily see how the 5-6" of rain verifies

[Jebman]

That area of showers has finally reached us but we only got a brief drizzle out of it. It is moving due north, on a beeline for Dallas. They should see steady heavy rain at some point in the early morning hours well into Thursday.

 

I have seen three sixteenths of an inch of rain so far out of TS Bill.

[Roy]

I am not impressed. There will be busts, busts everywhere. It is just barreling north, and radar estimates show basically an inch for most people so far over DFW. Another couple hours and it's done. 

 

2-isolated 3 inches in spots. Nowhere near the 3-5 or 4-6 everybody was forecasting. Not even enough to cause flooding.

[jm1220]

It'll be interesting to see how T-storms fire this afternoon-the sun is out here in Austin. That may give many more rain than the main rain shield. I was surprised we had a flood warning mostly for a period of showers.