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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

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Perhaps they could remove the Stage 3 Watering Restrictions?  Not that anybody's yard needs watering now.

We just moved in to a new construction house in early April with newly planted sod. Even I am not watering at this point. There really is no reason to, but I have seen some!

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Perhaps they could remove the Stage 3 Watering Restrictions? Not that anybody's yard needs watering now.

Isn't Colin County ntmwd??? They went from stage 3 to twice a week

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Isn't Colin County ntmwd??? They went from stage 3 to twice a week

 

I just checked the site and we're off stage 3 but the city (Frisco) has all kinds of confusing controlling stuff on their water efficiency plan.  Basically it's once a week using automatic sprinklers unless the weather data says otherwise.  which means if it's dry, they won't let you.  If it's wet, they won't let you.  

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What is it with storms in Texas this year not being able to move off a boundary. They don't want to move any closer to me than they have to.

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It is pouring like crazy in SW Ft Worth, this sucker isn't moving at all... good thing there's no creek to flood in Benbrook except the lake... I bet Altamesa by the toll road is underwater right now

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Fort Worth area rainfall. This should be the total for the day, unless another storm pops up.

 

2015_05_28_0300z_KFWS_stormtotal_fortwor

 

The crazy thing, last night the heaviest rain stayed just S of the airport and tonight it is just to the W. So close to just blowing up the record!

 

CGB0eK9UMAA547e.jpg

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The crazy thing, last night the heaviest rain stayed just S of the airport and tonight it is just to the W. So close to just blowing up the record!

 

CGB0eK9UMAA547e.jpg

Typical in these patterns. Austin-Camp Mabry is almost at 17" this month, the airport is about at where DFW is. Some pockets on the north side near the Williamson County border/Round Rock may be close to 20". San Antonio is at just over 7". Today's soaker in Austin did the same thing-the southwest side of the city maybe 3-4 miles from Camp Mabry had 2" of rain if not more, Camp Mabry reported nothing. 

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Yesterday was the first day in while that I did not record any rain though there was some within a couple miles of my house on my drive home yesterday.

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I wonder if we will add a few more to the total over the next few days?

 

CGG5EvTU0AAJagz.png

 

Pretty far to the W of DFW but I wouldn't be surprised to see something spin up closer in given the outflow boundary and how unstable things are. FWD is sending up a special 18z sounding, so that will be interesting to see.

 

CGG3w8lW8AEy2_q.png

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I was just barely barely above the white blobs on that rainfall map for the North Tarrant area. The backyard was a lake, which I had not seen since all this rain started.

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18Z FWD sounding was pretty meh. 0-6KM SHR of 27kts.. Strongest winds throughout the entire sounding are 40kts at 250mb. MLCAPE of ~1100J/KG, SBCAPE of ~3700J/KG.. Most impressive thing was the moisture, PWAT of 1.3in, SFC DP of 71.

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Looks like the heaviest rain later on could be north of I-20, which would be a bit of a change over the last couple of days. It also looks a lot more widespread than the past couple days.

 

mcd0146.gif

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0146
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED......NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 281945Z - 282345Z

SUMMARY...STRONG CONVECTION TRAINING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTH TX...ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONG
INSTABILITY (WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000
J/KG). KLBB RADAR SHOWS ONE HOUR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OVER 2
INCHES...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH CAPE VALUES... THESE AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY HAIL CONTAMINATED.

THE CONVECTION IS TRACKING ACROSS AN AREA WITH ONE AND THREE HOUR
FLASH FLOOD VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH...AND TRAINING RAISES THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND AS UPPER
DIFFLUENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE EXITING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...THAT THE ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN OK ON NEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.
THIS AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL INTO SOUTHERN
OK.

HAYES

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The instability seems plenty sufficient to sustain this for a while further. CAPE throughout south/central TX is around or over 3000, helicity suggests possible additional tornadoes on the southern end of the line, LI is -8 to -10, and temps shot up this afternoon where clouds cleared. We reached the upper 80s here in Austin once the earlier convection cleared. The severe T-storm watch should be extended east soon. 

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Looking like 4"+ now in parts of the DFW area-training echos there for a while. In Austin, a burst of some stronger winds and heavy rain with lightning, but nothing too bad. This weakened coming out of the Hill Country like a lot of our MCS's do. 

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At the rate it's been raining here in Collin I'm pretty sure I'll need to build an ark

EDIT: Now getting quite a few uncomfortably close lightening strikes. Guess I'm not gonna sleep tonight

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DFW less than an inch and a half away from all time monthly record. April 1942 and April 1922 would have to be surpasses.

Shattered the 82 May record by 3", wow.

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There is a 30+ acre lake on my family's property that apparently has suffered major damage from the heavy rains. Thankfully if there was a failure it would just release into the Sabine floodplain, but it would take out the road into that part of the property. It seems that all of Texas besides maybe the Trans-Pecos region has seen some kind of major effects from the storms and/or floods.

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Shattered the 82 May record by 3", wow.

 

Unreal.  ETA:  '82 was a Super Nino.  A harbinger of things to come?

 

So had time to tally up the numbers:

 

April 1922 - 17.64"

April 1942 - 16.97"

May 2015 - 16.07" (Through 6 AM CDT 5/29/2015)

 

So, 1.57" to go for the all time record.  0.90" for second place.  I have my doubts about the last three days as the impending cold front is supposed to be a quick mover with support at the 850 level.  Still, it's been wise to bet on the heavy side this month.  We will see.  

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About 18" for the month in Austin after last night. The storms were kinda mehh here but after this weekend we may reach 20" if the front produces.

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Unreal. ETA: '82 was a Super Nino. A harbinger of things to come?

So had time to tally up the numbers:

April 1922 - 17.64"

April 1942 - 16.97"

May 2015 - 16.07" (Through 6 AM CDT 5/29/2015)

So, 1.57" to go for the all time record. 0.90" for second place. I have my doubts about the last three days as the impending cold front is supposed to be a quick mover with support at the 850 level. Still, it's been wise to bet on the heavy side this month. We will see.

The 12z NAM 4k would get it done! Looks like 9" around the airport :lol:

 

nam4kmSGP_prec_precacc_060.gif

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Just heard that loop 12 where it goes under 30 will be off limits for A WEEK! That's going to cause a traffic nightmare on the side roads etc

I hope that is not the case I live in Grand Prarie and have to take that to work everyday. I sat in that disaster for close to 3 hours this morning.

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