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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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1900hurricane

1900hurricane

Posted
Posted

That cell got its own Mesoscale Discussion.

 

mcd0929.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0929
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF WRN N TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 257...

VALID 150239Z - 150415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 257 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SVR RISK IN WW 257 HAS BECOME CONFINED TO PARTS OF
KING AND KNOX COUNTIES. THE SVR RISK ELSEWHERE IS NOW NIL.

DISCUSSION...A SOLITARY SUPERCELL TSTM ENHANCED DURING THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SVR HAIL POTENTIAL
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS IT TRACKS ACROSS PARTS OF KING AND
KNOX COUNTIES IN WRN N TX. FOLLOWING INITIAL DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FDR VWP NOW SAMPLES AROUND 200 M2/S2 OF 0-1-KM
SRH AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS INCREASED. HOWEVER...MLCINH HAS BEEN SLOW
TO INCREASE OWING TO AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- E.G. LOWEST-100-MB
MEAN MIXING RATIO AROUND 17.5 G/KG PER A MODIFIED 00Z OUN RAOB. AS
SUCH...SVR HAIL POTENTIAL...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO...REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 0400Z-0430Z. THEREAFTER...THE NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE FOR CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE...GIVEN THE DEARTH OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT.

THE SVR RISK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WW IS NOW NIL.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 06/15/2016


ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...

LAT...LON 33650017 33710011 33819987 33719966 33589970 33540005
33650017
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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

The ridge of death is coming. Looking forward to seeing if 120F is coming to Phoenix, and if Death Valley can actually get to 130F. Still expecting it to be hot enough to make the devil cry until August or so for much of the SW.

So, while we are on the subject, what's the hottest and coldest actual temps anybody has experienced?

Me: 116 in Las Vegas a couple of years ago and -22 in Manitoba a few years ago. I know. Pretty pedestrian.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

For heat, whatever the highest temp has been in DFW since the summer of '10. However, I want to say that I was on travel for a couple of the really hot weeks over the past few years, so I might have missed it. For cold, it got down to -28 one year on our drive to Colorado. It was early morning going over the Raton Pass in NM. That week had several nights get down in the -20s up in Steamboat and we got dumped on pretty good. 

 

The last couple of runs of the 4k NAM have looked pretty good for areas east of I35 tomorrow. 

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It's Always Sunny

It's Always Sunny

Posted
Posted

For heat, whatever the highest temp has been in DFW since the summer of '10. However, I want to say that I was on travel for a couple of the really hot weeks over the past few years, so I might have missed it. For cold, it got down to -28 one year on our drive to Colorado. It was early morning going over the Raton Pass in NM. That week had several nights get down in the -20s up in Steamboat and we got dumped on pretty good. 

 

The last couple of runs of the 4k NAM have looked pretty good for areas east of I35 tomorrow. 

Looks like models have backed off on that idea...residual outflow not as impressive so only isolated-scattered stuff east of I-35 seems possible today. 4K NAM always seems to go bonkers with convection. HRRR seems to have a good grasp on today.

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

I've been in -7F in Albuquerque with snow on the ground, thick clouds, and a stiff wind - Feb 2011. Around 115F in Vegas. 100F+ in the SE deserve its own category though if it is humid.

 

Agreed about the SE. I was in Slidell, LA once. It was insane. About 90 but the heat index was around 115. Had to change my clothes three times a day.

 

For heat, whatever the highest temp has been in DFW since the summer of '10. However, I want to say that I was on travel for a couple of the really hot weeks over the past few years, so I might have missed it. For cold, it got down to -28 one year on our drive to Colorado. It was early morning going over the Raton Pass in NM. That week had several nights get down in the -20s up in Steamboat and we got dumped on pretty good. 

 

The last couple of runs of the 4k NAM have looked pretty good for areas east of I35 tomorrow.

Raton Pass. I've only been over it in the summer, but I can see that being hairy in the winter. It's a nice drive though. After 8 hours of nothing on 287 etc. haha.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

I was in New Orleans late last July and I agree that it was absolutely torrid. The highs when I was there were 96-99, but the humidity made it feel like it was close to 110 if not higher. I was just pouring sweat. It was probably the worst heat-humidity combination I've ever been in-it's like being in a disgusting NYC subway but with the sun shining on you. 

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

I was in New Orleans late last July and I agree that it was absolutely torrid. The highs when I was there were 96-99, but the humidity made it feel like it was close to 110 if not higher. I was just pouring sweat. It was probably the worst heat-humidity combination I've ever been in-it's like being in a disgusting NYC subway but with the sun shining on you.

Man it's awful. You can feel the sweat come.out of your pores.
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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

DFW 100 degree watch? DFW has hit 98 so far this summer but has yet to reach 100 with the avg 1st 100 degree being July 1st. Guidance suggest that DFW could get to mid-July without getting to 100 but it doesn't look like a slam dunk. Then beyond that, the climate models are a mix of slightly below to slightly above temps for July and August. 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Got a nice pulse type storm today. Probably an inch or so but in a brief period of time. Couldn't drive more than 15 mph it was so heavy. Those things are always awesome to break the tedium of summer.

 

Yea, it was pretty sketchy flying out of DFW this afternoon. Made for some great views but a few of the updrafts were a bit too close for comfort :lol: 

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

Yea, it was pretty sketchy flying out of DFW this afternoon. Made for some great views but a few of the updrafts were a bit too close for comfort :lol:

yeah there were some fierce dynamics today. The one I got under had a bizarre rope like cloud hanging from it. No way it was a spin up but it did look like one roping out. When it collapsed, we got some serious wind. My truck was rocking and hooting at the stoplight.

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cstrunk

cstrunk

Posted
Posted

There were a few small thunderstorms/showers in my neck of the woods yesterday evening. We got a small shower IMBY in Tyler, but nothing substantial. I drove through a very heavy downpour on I-20 that only lasted for about a mile and it was over. I will say that the sunset last night was very pretty, backlighting a storm to the southeast that had beautiful mammatus. I'll try to remember to post a picture later.

 

We haven't had any substantial storms in Tyler for quite a while though, after having missed the last ones in early June.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

3.5" of rain at a location near Lake Travis-rain has been hit or miss-where I am, just a few showers. 

 

And yes, first 100 degree day in Austin. First of many... :axe:

 

By July 4th it could be a roaster in TX with the ridge building in on the Euro. We could be making a run for 105 with the 24C 850 temps advertised. 

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