Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[bubba hotep]

nice pic

yeah I was pretty surprised to see the initiation near Dallas proper... just doesn't seem to happen too often.

There has been a fair amount of shear evident on the Mesquite radar... storm scale stuff, indicative of good updrafts and maybe some small hail.

The rain is good though... I could see a few nocturnal MCSs in the next week but after that the ridge might dominate for a while.

 

Today would make a great case study, esp. if someone had time lapse photos with a high quality camera to pair with the radar data. It was awesome watching individual updrafts, develop rain shafts, collapse, new updrafts going up, outflows, inflows, etc. today had it all in a relatively small area. 

[raindancewx]

Pretty decent call by the Cansips for May 2016. Cold in the West.

 

Didn't quite bring the cold north enough into NV/UT/WY, but good otherwise.

 

[bubba hotep]

One of the stronger signals in a while that we may see a MCS towards DFW later this evening

 

[radarman]

One of the more pronounced wind gusts of the day just SE of Mesquite metro airport, very close to the radar.... not sure if anyone has ever been over there, but I have to say it's a really pretty, pastoral area.  

 

Edit--- the other half decent velocity signature from earlier was around 645 pm near The Colony.

[bubba hotep]

Seeing reports of huge hail with this storm. This area was on the very edge of the SPC marginal from earlier today and has now produced several warned storms.

 

 

from @casaradar

 

[bubba hotep]

There could be big flooding problems in southern Dallas County, if that area starts to train and the cells out west grow upscale into a MCS and maintain. That area SE of Dallas is also putting on an awesome light show!

 

[bubba hotep]

Flash flood threat increasing for DFW tonight?

 

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0267
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1122 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN TX TO CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 300322Z - 300730Z

SUMMARY...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...WITH A NEW PERIOD OF
TRAINING AND MERGING CELLS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS AND FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGRY THROUGH 03Z
SHOWED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
TRAINING CONVECTION...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A FOCUS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THOSE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW AN AIRMASS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES INTO THE THUNDERSTORM
UPDRAFT REGION. THE 01Z PARALLEL RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS MUCAPES
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WEST TX. IN GENERAL...THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS ALTHOUGH THE
PARALLEL RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST DEPICTION OF
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. IT STILL SHOWS WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH 08Z.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

[1900hurricane]

Looks like it could be another bad flooding week.

 

[David Reimer]

We are going to have major issues with flooding later this week. Ted Ryan (WFO FWD) mentions a slow-moving warm core low later this week. Combine that kind of rain event with ongoing issues we could really have a massive flood threat develop. 

[SmokeEater]

Not good...

[Quixotic1]

We are going to have major issues with flooding later this week. Ted Ryan (WFO FWD) mentions a slow-moving warm core low later this week. Combine that kind of rain event with ongoing issues we could really have a massive flood threat develop.

David, do you remember such a scenario that hit Gainesville pretty hard? I want to say it was a warm core type setup in June of 2006 that gave them almost 8" or 9" overnight. The same system setup shop.in Dallas later and it was the first time I'd seen 35 N shut down on a Sunday. Been looking through records but can't find it.

[Roy]

Luckily for DFW this looks to set up the heaviest rains south of DFW. But, still looks rough. It looks like we could have severe flooding issues somewhere. 

 

My yard is still a swamp today...

 

On another note, after getting it a month ago, I finally got my weather station up today. Exciting to finally have something I have wanted for years.

[Quixotic1]

Luckily for DFW this looks to set up the heaviest rains south of DFW. But, still looks rough. It looks like we could have severe flooding issues somewhere.

My yard is still a swamp today...

On another note, after getting it a month ago, I finally got my weather station up today. Exciting to finally have something I have wanted for years.

What kind of station you get? Got my eye on a Davis Pro.

[bubba hotep]

Those upper level lows are notorious for wandering and being hard to pin down forecast wise. Trends so far this month say that the heaviest rain will be south over areas that can't really take anymore. Hopefully, things turn out better than expected.  

[Roy]

What kind of station you get? Got my eye on a Davis Pro.

Ambient Weather WS-1400-IP.  Can't really justify a Davis, but that would be neat.

[janetjanet998]

Soil moisture really high over Texas due to the wet past year or so

A slow moving warm core low could mean huge trouble or a tropical system this summer

Lakes and rivers running high

Lake medina west of San Antonio about to go over the spillway an amazing turn around from just two years ago

[Quixotic1]

Ambient Weather WS-1400-IP. Can't really justify a Davis, but that would be neat.

I have an ambient. Works very well. Well, it did until the battery literally exploded. For two years it gave very accurate readings with no maintenance at all.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Intriguing nugget from this morning's EWX AFD

In addition, there is a

potential for the system to attain warm core characteristics which

along with elevated or surface boundaries could lead to copious

mainly nighttime rainfall amounts. For now, rainfall amounts of 3

to 6 inches are expected across most areas with some totals up to

10 inches possible.

[bubba hotep]

I haven't seen many forecast like this for MBY since moving here:

 

 

The 00z Euro EPS had a northward shift/expansion of the heaviest rain for this upcoming period. 

[bubba hotep]

WPC broad brushing 5" along I35 with everything pointing to localized totals that will be much higher:

 

[bubba hotep]

Includes all but the far eastern counties of DFW

 

[bubba hotep]

DFW upgraded to slight for wind and hail

 

[jm1220]

Lake Medina is already overfilling according to Medina Lake Water. An aerial drone captured footage of the overflow. 

 

Flash flooding occurring now in the Hill Country near Llano and Mason. 

 

The LCRA has closed off Lake Austin, Lady Bird Lake (parts of the Colorado River in Austin closed off by dams) and the Colorado River east of Longhorn Dam due to water releases needed from Lake Travis. They're gearing up for this to be a pretty bad situation around here. I don't think this has been needed since close to a decade ago. 

[bubba hotep]

Lake Medina is already overfilling according to Medina Lake Water. An aerial drone captured footage of the overflow.

Flash flooding occurring now in the Hill Country near Llano and Mason.

The LCRA has closed off Lake Austin, Lady Bird Lake (parts of the Colorado River in Austin closed off by dams) and the Colorado River east of Longhorn Dam due to water releases needed from Lake Travis. They're gearing up for this to be a pretty bad situation around here. I don't think this has been needed since close to a decade ago.

There just isn't anyplace to put additional water. Maybe the far NE part of Texas and far edges of West Texas.

All the visible updrafts in my area have fat heavy looking bases. Will probably start to see some isolated downpours across the area here soon. Also, maybe some bigger hail given CAPE and lapse rates.

[bubba hotep]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0274

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

107 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHERN TX...FAR SOUTHERN OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 311700Z - 312300Z

SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN

COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW CELL

MOTION WILL PROMOTE FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION ARE DEVELOPING AND

EXPANDING COVERAGE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS...STRETCHING

FROM THE HILL COUNTRY NORTH TO RED RIVER. ALREADY SEEING NUMEROUS

OVERSHOOTING TOPS AS PER THE GOES-OTD ALGORITHM...AND THE

CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSIVE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH

ENTERING WEST TX...AS DEPICTED BY A 0856Z AQUA-MODIS PASS...AND

WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FOCUSING A BROADLY DIVERGENT FLOW PATTERN

ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX CURRENTLY...AND IS

INTERACTING WITH A WELL-DEFINED N/S AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG

SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.

RAP ANALYSES SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND PWATS OF

1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES...WHICH COUPLED TOGETHER WILL BE FAVORING

INTENSE RAINFALL RATES THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER

OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES/HR. THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FEED WILL BE

REINFORCED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BY ADDITIONAL DIURNAL HEATING AND

A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FETCH.

THE 12Z ARW AND 12Z NMMB BOTH INDICATE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL MAY

BE UNDERDOING THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE BASED ON

THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CONVECTION TO

CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY A BIT MORE THROUGH MID TO LATE

AFTERNOON AS STRONG INSTABILITY FOCUSES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AND

DOWN THROUGH THE TX HILL COUNTRY. SEVERAL AREAS OF CELL-MERGERS

AND OVERSHOOTING TOPS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE

RAINFALL RATES FURTHER.

THE GENERAL THINKING IS THAT THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS UNDERDONE WITH

THEIR AMOUNTS IN THE SHORT-TERM. BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND

RADAR TRENDS...EXPECT RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH 23Z OF 3 TO 6

INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHERE MERGING CLUSTERS OF

CONVECTION OCCUR. GIVEN THE LOCALLY WET ANTECEDENT

CONDITIONS...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

ORRISON

[bubba hotep]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0276

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

213 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 311800Z - 312300Z

SUMMARY...VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL FOSTER AN ENHANCED

THREAT OF SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...VERY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION

DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE PRODUCING

RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES/HR BASED ON MESONET DATA

FROM SOUTHEAST OK.

THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SETTLING SOUTHEASTWARD IS INTERACTING WITH AN

INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS POOLING NORTH TOWARD THE

RED RIVER WHICH IS COURTESY OF A BROAD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL

FETCH WHICH IS REFLECTIVE OF THE LARGER SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION

PATTERN OVER THE REGION.

HIRES MODELS OVERALL ARE NOT HANDLING THE MESOSCALE DETAILS OF THE

ONGOING CONVECTION PARTICULARLY WELL...BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF

INSTABILITY WITH THE AID OF SOLAR INSOLATION/DIABATIC

HEATING...THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST OK IS LIKELY TO

SUSTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE CELL MOTIONS

FARTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE NOTABLY MORE

PROGRESSIVE THAN WHAT WILL BE OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE RED

RIVER...AND THUS SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR THE RED RIVER ARE LIKELY

TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH

ABOUT 23Z GIVEN THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE

RED RIVER WHERE WHERE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL ENHANCE TOTALS TO

POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES.

[Chinook]

Some of you from Dallas keep talking about how interesting storms keep missing Dallas, north, south, east, and west. But this is no drought. Dallas-Fort Worth has 5.09" of rain this month, and average is 4.74". Some rain is just miles away from DFW now.

[Quixotic1]

Some of you from Dallas keep talking about how interesting storms keep missing Dallas, north, south, east, and west. But this is no drought. Dallas-Fort Worth has 5.09" of rain this month, and average is 4.74". Some rain is just miles away from DFW now.

I know. We got traumatized by no winter. Suffering from boredom.

[cheese007]

That storm just east of McKinney blew up fast. Quarter size hail and 60mph winds, also nearly stationary

[jm1220]

About to get nailed here in SW Austin. Storms south of here are severe warned now. Numerous flash flood warnings are out now west of here in the Hill Country.