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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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Roy

Roy

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Hmm.  We haven't even seen an inch of rain yet where I am in North Fort Worth from the last two days. Could really use some more, so I hope it's wrong. But, not "too" wrong if you get my drift. Don't want 5 inches either.

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Roy

Roy

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I know it's bad elsewhere, but for the metro, this has been rather underwhelming rain-wise. Chris Robbins has busted severely with his 3-5 inches for DFW.

 

I haven't even seen 1.5 inches total yet. Nothing to sneeze at, but with the hype, it's a little disappointing that we will end this being behind in rainfall for the year still unless something major happens later in the week.

 

I am not liking that the models mostly aren't showing any more significant rain through the end of their runs for DFW.

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wxmx

wxmx

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The ULL has been digging a bit more than forecasted. Now it presents my backyard with some nice precip amounts for the next 48 hours. Furthermore, models are showing 12-24" of snow for the mountains to my south, with some staggering >3"/h rates tomorrow morning, blowing snow and thundersnow. I'm fighting the urge to skip work tomorrow :P

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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The ULL has been digging a bit more than forecasted. Now it presents my backyard with some nice precip amounts for the next 48 hours. Furthermore, models are showing 12-24" of snow for the mountains to my south, with some staggering >3"/h rates tomorrow morning, blowing snow and thundersnow. I'm fighting the urge to skip work tomorrow :P

 

This is basically a once in a lifetime event! Maybe not the snow in March down there but the ULL track is for sure. I wouldn't make it into work :lol: 

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wxmx

wxmx

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Quarter and golf ball sized hail in Tampico last night. Never saw hail, not even pea size in my 20 years living there. Lot of snow photos/videos from different parts of Mexico in my FB. Here, rain has picked up, and I guess snow has been accumulating to my south.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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PDO rose again, and I always think of it an imbalance, to 1.75 in February - so that bodes well for Spring fun/interesting weather. Don't know if we get close to May 2015 which was the wettest month in US history.

 

It peaked in March of '98, but the '97/98 Nino hasn't been a great analog. It will be interesting to see if it decouples from Nino and stays positive or if follows with a cooling trend over the summer. The cooling N. Atlantic combined with a +PDO could keep Texas wetter than you would normally expect heading towards a Nina. 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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Lake Travis less than 1 foot away from completely being full, first time since 2010. :thumbsup:

 

http://www.golaketravis.com/waterlevel/

 

The MJO looks to be getting active again and that may be signaling another wet period for Texas. Lake Travis full some time in April? I remember see articles that it would "never" be full again.

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Calderon

Calderon

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The MJO looks to be getting active again and that may be signaling another wet period for Texas. Lake Travis full some time in April? I remember see articles that it would "never" be full again.

The authors of those articles should've realized that the great droughts in Texas have always ended with great floods and prolific rainfall. There was minimal evaporation and loss last summer, so it really wouldn't take much to rise again, as is clearly the case.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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HRRR & NAM 4k fire some decent storms 

 

ETA: moisture appears to be returning faster or maybe just more of an eastward component to it than expected. Maybe that lets some decent storms slide across DFW in the wee morning hours? 

 

Looks like the latest run of the HRRR is a good bit NE with storms vs. runs from early in the evening. 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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Cdu4KoYUYAAKlvE.jpg

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 170713Z - 170945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK
ACROSS NCNTRL TX. WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
EAST TO WEST ACROSS CNTRL TX WITH ELY WINDS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TX. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE TOP OF A SHARP
TEMP INVERSION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A 30 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS
LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST TX AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO WARM ADVECTION
ACROSS NCNTRL TX WHICH IS AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION...WSR-88D VWPS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NCNTRL TX SUGGEST
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE WHICH WILL MAKE STORM
ROTATION POSSIBLE. THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NCNTRL TX ISOLATED WITH
ONLY ONE OR TWO MORE STORMS INITIATING THROUGH DAYBREAK. CELLS MAY
BE CONDUCIVE TO SPLIT DUE TO UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE THE
SFC INVERSION.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 03/17/2016

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