Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[Chinook]

Days in this month which Texas has not had a preliminary tornado report:

May 1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 12, 17, 20, 21, 24.

The other 18 days before today, Texas had at least one preliminary tornado report.

[jhamps10]

18Z NAM 4k keeps a band of storms across the DFW area early tomorrow morning. Lines up pretty well with the afternoon AFD from FWD. Let the record watching begin! #WettestMonthorBust

 

watch it ends up were .01 short lol

[NTXYankee]

It also sounds like they aren't so sure of a complete week of dry weather.  Haven't looked at long term model data recently, but wonder what June holds in store for us.  Before sounded like a ridge setting up but begins to sound like perhaps a long wave trough again setting up out west towards the end of the week.

[Quixotic1]

watch it ends up were .01 short lol

Like 09-10 when we missed the seasonal snowfall record by 0.3"

[TXWXCHX]

There is a 30+ acre lake on my family's property that apparently has suffered major damage from the heavy rains. Thankfully if there was a failure it would just release into the Sabine floodplain, but it would take out the road into that part of the property. It seems that all of Texas besides maybe the Trans-Pecos region has seen some kind of major effects from the storms and/or floods.

I have concerns regarding rural/farm infrastructure - pond dams, small bridges over creeks, etc; we have had minor flooding of these structures for the last three weeks, some small bridges being overtopped several times. I myself am watching our own small pond dams with keen interest... they wouldnt take out very much on their own, but the cumulative effect on property and local logistics could be significant.

[Quixotic1]

It also sounds like they aren't so sure of a complete week of dry weather. Haven't looked at long term model data recently, but wonder what June holds in store for us. Before sounded like a ridge setting up but begins to sound like perhaps a long wave trough again setting up out west towards the end of the week.

Haven't looked either. My guess would be the state of the EPO as a factor.

In 1990 we had a wet spring like this. Freeways underwater etc. it translated into a wet and muggy summer. Cooler than normal.

[1900hurricane]

As bad as the flooding is now, it would be a whole lot worse without the reservoirs. All the lakes on the Brazos, Trinity, and Colorado were low coming into this spring and that allowed them to catch that much more water and prevent it from going downstream. Without them, the flooding in the middle and lower basins would be horrendously bad.

[jm1220]

As bad as the flooding is now, it would be a whole lot worse without the reservoirs. All the lakes on the Brazos, Trinity, and Colorado were low coming into this spring and that allowed them to catch that much more water and prevent it from going downstream. Without them, the flooding in the middle and lower basins would be horrendously bad.

Exactly. The flooding on the Colorado was bad around Austin but I'm sure would have been worse had Lake Travis needed to be opened. It's incredible what's happened to that lake this month-it's risen more than 31 feet this month (8 of those feet were in one morning when Burnet County was nailed by training storms) and is still 18 feet away from full. The lake snakes along for many miles in western Travis County-it's a huge basin. Today it rose almost 3 more feet from the rain early this morning and I'm sure will rise more in the coming days with the rain this weekend. 

 

That said, the flooding on the Colorado past Austin has been quite serious-the Bastrop and La Grange areas experienced significant flooding, and a dam was compromised in Bastrop State Park. The rain on Monday happened in a very bad spot for Austin and places SE-it happened first east of Mansfield Dam which is the start of Lake Travis and west of downtown and places east of there. That caused the creeks to rise and flood in the downtown area. Then, rain picked back up around Bastrop, which saw up to 6" of rain, and worsened the flooding there. It passed over much of eastern Austin and the airport, which "only" saw maybe 2". Western and north Austin and Bastrop saw the much higher amounts. 

 

The heaviest rain for the flood which devastated Wimberley and San Marcos fell well west of them in Blanco County on Saturday. The terrain in western Hays County is steep, which enabled essentially the wall of water to cascade down the river. We're not Flash Flood Alley for nothing. 

 

I plan on heading to Lake Travis tomorrow to take some "before and after" photos-the last time I was there was early last month when the lake was essentially a puddle compared to now. The "Sometimes Islands" which appear on the lake when dry conditions exist are all but gone now. They've been around long enough  (since the 2011 mega drought) that tree saplings have been appearing on them. This morning, a houseboat was swept out onto the lake during the thunderstorm and required boat rescues. It will be funny to see the long winding staircases and boat docks once again submerged, lol. 

[jm1220]

GFS ratchets up the heat next week with a large ridge popping over Texas. 850mb temps go well over 20C, over 30C in west TX. I'm ready for it-whatever dries us out. 

[bubba hotep]

We got hammered again this morning. I would love to see how many lightning strikes there have been within a 5 mile radius of my house during the past week  

 

The other day when I was poking around things looked pretty interesting for June. I'll try to pull together and post some plots this evening. The jist of things is that June looks above normal precipitation wise for much of Texas, even with the first  7 or so days being dry.

[bubba hotep]

What a difference a year can make:

 

[bubba hotep]

NWS Fort Worth ‏@NWSFortWorth  21m21 minutes ago

DFW has had only had 5 years where we went thru the month of May without hitting 90°. The last time was June 3, 1983

 

I think that the latest ever 90 was June 12th. The 18z GFS gets DFW to 90 on the 6th, then it is below until the end of the run. Could we break another record?

 

ETA: The 12z Euro and EPS look like they keep DFW below 90 over the next 10 days 

[Quixotic1]

NWS Fort Worth ‏@NWSFortWorth  21m21 minutes ago

DFW has had only had 5 years where we went thru the month of May without hitting 90°. The last time was June 3, 1983

 

I think that the latest ever 90 was June 12th. The 18z GFS gets DFW to 90 on the 6th, then it is below until the end of the run. Could we break another record?

 

ETA: The 12z Euro and EPS look like they keep DFW below 90 over the next 10 days

Check out December 1983 to get really excited....

[CranberryWX]

After the 1.50" that fell yesterday afternoon, my backyard CoCoRaHS gauge recorded 18.06" in May with several Trace amount days. An ASOS station in Houston recorded 20.40" for the month.

[radarman]

NWS Fort Worth ‏@NWSFortWorth 21m21 minutes ago

DFW has had only had 5 years where we went thru the month of May without hitting 90°. The last time was June 3, 1983

I think that the latest ever 90 was June 12th. The 18z GFS gets DFW to 90 on the 6th, then it is below until the end of the run. Could we break another record?

ETA: The 12z Euro and EPS look like they keep DFW below 90 over the next 10 days

With so much surface moisture it will be interesting to see if temps underperform due to diurnal cumulus formation.

[Roy]

I don't know what to do without my evening thunderstorm every night. How boring! lol

[BlizzardWx]

I come to visit Texas for the first time in my life (fiancée's family in Abilene) and it looks bone dry. I guess my chance to see those Texas storms will have to wait for another day.

[bubba hotep]

With so much surface moisture it will be interesting to see if temps underperform due to diurnal cumulus formation.

 

The models have trended a bit more stout with the ridge and it looks like DFW breaks into the 90s by the weekend. So we will miss the record by 6 or 7 days... Then it looks like chances for rain start to return by the middle of next week.

 

[bubba hotep]

I don't know what to do without my evening thunderstorm every night. How boring! lol

 

Yeah, I find myself checking the SPC Meso site at lunch looking to see how the evening storm ingredients are coming together, maybe next week. 

[bubba hotep]

Hmm, the old GFS was storm happy on the other side but will the new be the opposite or is that a legit threat? Could enough vorticity transfer to the BOC to cause some early season mischief? A system into Texas anytime soon would be a major problem. 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

I don't know what to do without my evening thunderstorm every night. How boring! lol

 

Seriously! It was my hobby every night all May to hop on TVN and watch streams and follow the tornadoes. Hopefully it gets more active soon.

[bubba hotep]

Check out December 1983 to get really excited....

 

I actually like '83 - 84 a lot after looking a things a bit more. I'm thinking '57, '83, '87, '91 and '14 right now.  

 

May precipitation anomaly:

May temp:

Rolled forward for the Summer - JJA Temp

 

 

The precip for JJA, 3 of the years had tropical systems landfall in the upper Texas coastal area and that is probably skewing things a good bit:

 

And now for next winter? DJF temps:

 

DJF precip:

 

More Texas snow and a couple of good old fashioned Nor'easters? Mid-Atlantic nor'easters often times start out as N. Texas snow storms, I always liked seeing snow in Dallas when I lived in the DC area. 

[Quixotic1]

I actually like '83 - 84 a lot after looking a things a bit more. I'm thinking '57, '83, '87, '91 and '14 right now.  

 

More Texas snow and a couple of good old fashioned Nor'easters? Mid-Atlantic nor'easters often times start out as N. Texas snow storms, I always liked seeing snow in Dallas when I lived in the DC area.

Good post Bubba. We could use more winter posts now. Once the spring storms are gone, it's all we got.

The analogs I like best are 57 and 87. 87 - 88 was pretty good here.

83-84 is soooo memorable. The cold was unheard of. People driving across lakes. Ice fishing. Nuts. Snow that fell on the 16th was still around January 1st.

The paucity of second year Ninos made me dig through the old MEI numbers. It was scary. Mid 19-oughts, early 40s and early 1990s looked like good fits ENSO wise. But the early 90s were a disaster here. 40s were meh. Oughts looked good.

What is your thought on the weakening solar and change in QBO? Perhaps some reshuffling in high latitude blocking?

[1900hurricane]

Winter posts? Ewww. Warm season weather all the way!

 

I'm starting to get interested in the period beginning five to seven days from now. Model guidance starts to show a weakness between ridges developing over Texas about that time and a piece of vorticity falling into it from the north. With this type of look, I wouldn't be surprised to see at least some locally heavy rain return to the state. Also, if any shenanigans do manage to develop to the south (although I'm not holding my breath at this point), that could be an enticing gap.

[jm1220]

Today was Austin-Bergstrom Airport's first 90 I think. It's a little ways from downtown and usually runs slightly behind Camp Mabry which is closer to downtown. So far, this isn't too bad-when it hits the 90s in Manhattan it's unbearable-the ever present humidity mixes with the gunk that comes from buses, cars, the trains/subways, etc and creates a smoggy soup which is just disgusting. At least in Austin the heat is "clean", lol. I know it's going to get a lot worse though. 

[DoctorMu]

The UL ridge is beginning to slink away to the SW and W.  A trough slides by later today in eastern counties.  Deep moisture builds and some t-shower action increases, particularly this weekend.  PW values starting to simmer...

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1212 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWS PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 84 DEGREES. AN ELONGATED VORT LOBE WILL
MOVE TOWARD SE TX FROM THE NE LATER THIS AFTN. THE NCEP 4 KM WRF
IS AGGRESSIVE WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE VORT MAX AS IT
MOVES SW. THE RAP IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOMETHING SIMILAR. ADDED
VCSH FOR IAH TAF AND TSRA MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY IS THE 4 KM
WRF IS CORRECT. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN RATHER QUIET TODAY YET THEY
ALL SHOW THE VORT APPROACHING. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BROADLY
DIFFLUENT SO AM LEANING A BIT TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WRF/RAP.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDS AFTN. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING NW TO SE ORIENTED UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NE TEXAS ON EASTERN FLANK OF
UPPER RIDGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ARE TWO
POTENTIAL TRIGGERS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL THINKING COVERAGE OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT SHOULD
COVER IT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST. PWAT FROM CRP
AND FWD MORNING SOUNDING JUST 1.3 INCHES...SHV MORE LIKE 1.6
INCHES. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS...GOING WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC START. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO
TEMPS.

[aggiegeog]

A few strong storms mainly along I-20. Strong winds here in downtown Tyler but skies are still clear for the moment.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like I picked the wrong day not to go down to the office in Dallas! Pretty epic storm that collapsed on itself with a massive outflow

 

 

From Dan Henry:

 

 

 

 

ETA: Reports of 2"+ rain in under an hour in N. Dallas with this cell and lots of wind damage

[1900hurricane]

Winter posts? Ewww. Warm season weather all the way!

 

I'm starting to get interested in the period beginning five to seven days from now. Model guidance starts to show a weakness between ridges developing over Texas about that time and a piece of vorticity falling into it from the north. With this type of look, I wouldn't be surprised to see at least some locally heavy rain return to the state. Also, if any shenanigans do manage to develop to the south (although I'm not holding my breath at this point), that could be an enticing gap.

 

Although we might be running a day or two behind, it looks my line of thought from last week seems to be holding up well. If I recall correctly, model guidance wasn't particularly enthusiastic about rainfall output (although it was 7-9 days out), but from a pattern recognition standpoint, it was hard to ignore the setup being shown, which is favorable for summertime heavy rainfall during the summer in Texas. Now we're already seeing flooding on the SE side of Houston from a training band of rain, and I suspect we'll see more little events like this over the next couple of days. With the lack of a real strong surface focus, the rains probably won't be particularly organized, but there will be at least some more at least locally heavy rains and flooding in addition to what we're seeing so far today.

[bubba hotep]

Although we might be running a day or two behind, it looks my line of thought from last week seems to be holding up well. If I recall correctly, model guidance wasn't particularly enthusiastic about rainfall output (although it was 7-9 days out), but from a pattern recognition standpoint, it was hard to ignore the setup being shown, which is favorable for summertime heavy rainfall during the summer in Texas. Now we're already seeing flooding on the SE side of Houston from a training band of rain, and I suspect we'll see more little events like this over the next couple of days. With the lack of a real strong surface focus, the rains probably won't be particularly organized, but there will be at least some more at least locally heavy rains and flooding in addition to what we're seeing so far today.

Anywhere east of the I35 corridor that picks up significant rainfall over the next few days could really have issues by the end of the week. Could be significant tropical rainfall from whatever eventually comes out of the Gulf.