snowman19 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Euro is nothing like the GFS. Looks like rain if you ask meIt's rain per the euro and a lot of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Euro is nothing like the GFS. Looks like rain if you ask me It's rain changing to wet snow because it moves the first high off the coast so the low initially tracks inside the coast but as the incoming high approaches, the energy transfer to a coastal occurs as cold air is drawn in. Then to keep things interesting, there's another purely offshore coastal storm down off of the southeast coast which with the trough that the Euro has, I would expect that to make a run up the coast with continued favorable placement of the cold high to our north and west. Very very interesting. We may be in the 40s to near 50 for a part of next week, but winter is not done at all IMO. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 It's rain per the euro and a lot of it It's actually showing less QPF than the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Curious if you could reference a couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 My comparison to 2010 is in terms of precipitation/overall storminess. That's why I said sensible weather. Nobody cares and most people wouldn't notice if the average high was 56 instead of 50 during any given period. I would think temperatures are a large part of sensible weather. So no one notices or cares if an overall month is 6 degrees above or below normal? Ok, then. There were numerous beach worthy days in late April/early May in 2010, not that anyone noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 LOL at the D8-9 GFS. Tries to cut until running into the cold air, how many times are we gonna see that this year? Whether it verifies or not, at least the model recognizes the pattern. Are the models adaptive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I would think temperatures are a large part of sensible weather. So no one notices or cares if an overall month is 6 degrees above or below normal? Ok, then. There were numerous beach worthy days in late April/early May in 2010, not that anyone noticed. I don't remember, but the temps must have been 15+ for the temps to be beach-worthy. That's noticeable. Five degrees? Probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I don't remember, but the temps must have been 15+ for the temps to be beach-worthy. That's noticeable. Five degrees? Probably not. The point is we remember seasons that on a whole are 5 degrees below/above normal. A single day +/- 5 degrees? Of course, no one would remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I would think temperatures are a large part of sensible weather. So no one notices or cares if an overall month is 6 degrees above or below normal? Ok, then. There were numerous beach worthy days in late April/early May in 2010, not that anyone noticed. Okay, let me rephrase that. Nobody that isn't a weather weenie cares about a +5 temperature departure in March/April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Okay, let me rephrase that. Nobody that isn't a weather weenie cares about a +5 temperature departure in March/April. If the two months are a +5 then yeah people will notice because that's significant. It's not so much that they don't care it's that they have a short memory. Most weather events are forgotten, which is why historical storms are such a big deal. People will remember Jan 1996 and Sandy, but they'll forget a +5 April, but they'll definitely notice it on some days that month because a few of those days are probably in the 80s or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Are the models adaptive? Probably worthy of discussion somewhere else, but in a given pattern/season/period of time, no, they are not going to get "smarter". They are only going to "adapt" as programming changes are made to them by human beings. For the current "pattern" (and I'll leave it to a red tagger to best describe it using meteorological terms), I would say the GFS has been overamping systems/underestimating cold in the 6-10 day timeframe. Is this enough to now call it a bias of the modified (note I said modified, not upgraded) GFS? Not in general, but under certain patterns, namely the one we have been in, it would appear so to these untrained eyes and mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Hint at major snow storm March 15-16? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Hint at major snow storm March 15-16? 9 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Beware the Ides of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Beware the Ides of March. Well, we have an Anthony. All we need is a Brutus and a Caesar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Well, we have an Anthony. All we need is a Brutus and a Caesar. My middle name is Caesar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I'm convinced this pattern is locked through at least the first half of April. Then, we may see a total pattern reversal late in April or early in May. If we don't, it's going to be an extremely chilly wet spring here. WX/PT I thought most folks were saying the pattern "changes" next week. Is that not the case? I don't follow the long range stuff (beyond 7-10 days), as there's just too much uncertainty for me to invest energy in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 So much potential on the gfs. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 So much potential on the gfs. Wow. Specific time frame at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 So much potential on the gfs. Wow. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 For Long Island, the "torch" next week is now 40-41F on tues, and 46-47F on wed on the 18z GFS.....and thats it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Fantasy land but storms possible on 15th 18th and 23rd with cold air at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Lmao wow at the GFS 18z i was wrong when I thought winter was over. Take a look the next 3 weeks there are 3 snow event potentials... Take a look Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Mjo going into 7-8.Gfs shows -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Mjo going into 7-8.Gfs shows -nao Of course the nao goes neg in march lol just great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Lmao wow at the GFS 18z i was wrong when I thought winter was over. Take a look the next 3 weeks there are 3 snow event potentials... Take a look Sent from my iPhone That second pic tho. That storm looks healthy. I hope it comes to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Mjo going into 7-8.Gfs shows -nao Maybe we'll cash in after last march when all the potential trended south or east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Mjo is forecasted to go through the 7 roof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Does anyone else have that feeling of the winter going out with a bang with a KU event followed by a pattern breakdown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 While nothing is assured in terms of future snowfall opportunities, given the forecast pattern, I suspect that the odds of additional accumulating snowfall are above climatological probabilities for this time of year. The most recent runs of the GFS, even not taking the details literally, serve to highlight potential for some additional winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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