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nj2va

March 5th Storm Obs/Nowcasting

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Moderate sleet at 32 degrees. Sleet is sticking to all surfaces including the roads. Once this goes over to all SN it'll pile up.

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stunning.

SPC calling out the NAM

E...THIS OBSERVED ELEVATED WARM LAYER AT KIAD WAS

AS MUCH AS 2-3C COLDER /750-700 MB/ THAN THE 06Z NAM POINT FORECAST

BUT SIMILAR TO THE 06Z GFS FORECAST PROFILE.

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Looking at the radar I wouldn't be surprised if the Manchester crowd hits double digits.

Definitely - They will get banded all day long - it was well modeled

The meso only confirms it

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SPC calling out the NAM

E...THIS OBSERVED ELEVATED WARM LAYER AT KIAD WAS

AS MUCH AS 2-3C COLDER /750-700 MB/ THAN THE 06Z NAM POINT FORECAST

BUT SIMILAR TO THE 06Z GFS FORECAST PROFILE.

Upgrades doing their job.

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I liked this statement

 

 

AS COLDER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO TRANSITION

SOUTHEASTWARD...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH A

FAVORABLE ELEVATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH SHOULD

CONTRIBUTE TO A SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR INCREASINGLY HEAVY

SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET ALSO INITIALLY POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES ARE

LIKELY TO LOCALLY EXCEED 1 IN/HR WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. THE 12Z

OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM WASHINGTON-DULLES SUBSTANTIATES THIS NOTION

WITH CONSIDERABLE COOLING HAVING OCCURRED BELOW 700 MB OVER THE PAST

12-HOURS...WITH ONLY A NEGLIGIBLE ABOVE-FREEZING ELEVATED LAYER

/AROUND 0.5C/ REMAINING AT 850 MB AS OF 12Z. OF NOTE RELATED TO

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THIS OBSERVED ELEVATED WARM LAYER AT KIAD WAS

AS MUCH AS 2-3C COLDER /750-700 MB/ THAN THE 06Z NAM POINT FORECAST

BUT SIMILAR TO THE 06Z GFS FORECAST PROFILE.

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36 and rain in RIC. Would you guys say you're changing over earlier than expected? It seems that way. That gives me hope down here, but the HRRR says no dice. Expecting a sleet bomb.

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8:00 1.2 inches. .5 in the past hour. Moderate snow 30 degrees. The intensity of the snow has really picked up over the past 15 minutes or so. I am getting hammered right now with moderate snow being driven on a stiff N/W wind. 

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I liked this statement

 

 

AS COLDER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO TRANSITION

SOUTHEASTWARD...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH A

FAVORABLE ELEVATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH SHOULD

CONTRIBUTE TO A SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR INCREASINGLY HEAVY

SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET ALSO INITIALLY POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES ARE

LIKELY TO LOCALLY EXCEED 1 IN/HR WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. THE 12Z

OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM WASHINGTON-DULLES SUBSTANTIATES THIS NOTION

WITH CONSIDERABLE COOLING HAVING OCCURRED BELOW 700 MB OVER THE PAST

12-HOURS...WITH ONLY A NEGLIGIBLE ABOVE-FREEZING ELEVATED LAYER

/AROUND 0.5C/ REMAINING AT 850 MB AS OF 12Z. OF NOTE RELATED TO

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THIS OBSERVED ELEVATED WARM LAYER AT KIAD WAS

AS MUCH AS 2-3C COLDER /750-700 MB/ THAN THE 06Z NAM POINT FORECAST

BUT SIMILAR TO THE 06Z GFS FORECAST PROFILE.

 

 

But, but, the NAM...

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Meso discussion saved into the thread for posterity:

 

mcd0124.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST THU MAR 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WV AND WESTERN/NORTHERN VA TO DC METRO/MD/SOUTHEAST
PA/NJ/DE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 051258Z - 051800Z

SUMMARY...INCREASINGLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1
IN/HR...PARTICULARLY INCLUDING A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
WV...WESTERN/NORTHERN VA...FAR SOUTHEAST PA...THE DC METRO...NJ/MD
AND NORTHERN DE.

DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA VICINITY BY
MID/LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AMPLIFYING
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. NEAR-SURFACE SUB-FREEZING AIR CONTINUES TO STEADILY
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE SURFACE
WET-BULB 32F ISOLINE EXTENDING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN VA...NEAR
THE DC METRO AREA...TO NEAR PHILADELPHIA/CENTRAL NJ AS OF 12Z.

AS COLDER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
SOUTHEASTWARD...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH A
FAVORABLE ELEVATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR INCREASINGLY HEAVY
SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET ALSO INITIALLY POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES ARE
LIKELY TO LOCALLY EXCEED 1 IN/HR WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. THE 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM WASHINGTON-DULLES SUBSTANTIATES THIS NOTION
WITH CONSIDERABLE COOLING HAVING OCCURRED BELOW 700 MB OVER THE PAST
12-HOURS...WITH ONLY A NEGLIGIBLE ABOVE-FREEZING ELEVATED LAYER
/AROUND 0.5C/ REMAINING AT 850 MB AS OF 12Z. OF NOTE RELATED TO
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THIS OBSERVED ELEVATED WARM LAYER AT KIAD WAS
AS MUCH AS 2-3C COLDER /750-700 MB/ THAN THE 06Z NAM POINT FORECAST
BUT SIMILAR TO THE 06Z GFS FORECAST PROFILE.

..GUYER.. 03/05/2015


ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 37098013 37548142 38458163 40137779 40467420 39547430
39267498 38447776 37098013 

 

 

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36 and rain in RIC. Would you guys say you're changing over earlier than expected? It seems that way. That gives me hope down here, but the HRRR says no dice. Expecting a sleet bomb.

It went from sleet to snow in about 30 minutes for me. Happened fast.

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