psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 A south trend on this type of event makes no sense to me...none why not? I was worried about a north trend yesterday when the threat that the SW energy might eject in one piece, that is NOT happening. This is not one amped up wave but several weak ones riding along the frontal boundary. None of them is strong enough to be much resistance to the cold high pressing down. THis is VERY similar to the early March storm last year. I was in central PA last year and for days we were expecting 8-12" of snow and I ended up with party cloudy skies while DC south got a nice snowstorm. No two systems end up the same but this is similar enough to be wary of the south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yes, I understand that. But typically models overdo cold push and mountains normally slow it down. I only see the GFS doing this. Any quantitative evidence of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 why not? I was worried about a north trend yesterday when the threat that the SW energy might eject in one piece, that is NOT happening. This is not one amped up wave but several weak ones riding along the frontal boundary. None of them is strong enough to be much resistance to the cold high pressing down. THis is VERY similar to the early March storm last year. I was in central PA last year and for days we were expecting 8-12" of snow and I ended up with party cloudy skies while DC south got a nice snowstorm. No two systems end up the same but this is similar enough to be wary of the south trend. You yourself made a post about a north trend being more likely than a south trend. The NAM even has a stronger high than the GFS. A common bias is for the gfs to overdo cold air push. Earlier this month it had 850's at -20 in Savannah, which never came close. I don't buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Any quantitative evidence of this? This reads more like rhetoric than anything else. Years of watching them do it. Doesn't mean I'm right, just what I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 You yourself made a post about a north trend being more likely than a south trend. The NAM even has a stronger high than the GFS. A common bias is for the gfs to overdo cold air push. Earlier this month it had 850's at -20 in Savannah, which never came close. I don't buy it. I explained in my post why I was worried about a north trend yesterday. I thought if the models were falsely ejecting the energy too weak it might lead to a stronger more amped up system. If anything it has trended the other way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 In this situation though, even if models were overdoing the cold air, we would merely change to snow sooner and still pick up a fair amount of qpf with the slow cold front producing anafrontal precip across a wide area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yes, I understand that. But typically models overdo cold push and mountains normally slow it down. I only see the GFS doing this. Look at the last 2 runs of the 4km NAM. It hasnt come south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Years of watching them do it. Doesn't mean I'm right, just what I think. The trend is your friend. Trending colder and further south, just like the last storm trended further north. The trends in all of the models will indicate what is more likely, not nam is always north and gfs south, the ensemble is shifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Look at the last 2 runs of the 4km NAM. It hasnt come south? It's correcting from being the most northern solution. Not really worth debating. We will know in about 12-15 hours. On another note, getting windy here...and the temp is moving up rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 We're in noise mode. I thought ellinwood's map was really good. Widespread 4-8". Gfs is right there. I'm not sure what everyone is expecting. There is no organized lp or rapid devlopment, or closed ull, or pivot. Double digits are going to be reserved for a lucky few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Wow, the south trend continues on the gfs. I hope the euro holds to 12z form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's correcting from being the most northern solution. Not really worth debating. We will know in about 12-15 hours. On another note, getting windy here...and the temp is moving up rapidly. Yup. I think we are all in a good spot to get a 5-8" event. Agree with Bob, double digits prob not realistic for most. Folks in N KY, Ohio, N. PA, and NYC are not liking the trends though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 We're in noise mode. I thought ellinwood's map was really good. Widespread 4-8". Gfs is right there. I'm not sure what everyone is expecting. There is no organized lp or rapid devlopment, or closed ull, or pivot. Double digits are going to be reserved for a lucky few. Yes the only way anyone will get screwed is if they are expecting 10+ amounts like the 12z euro is showing. 4-8 will still verify if it changes over late and ends early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I feel like we're missing some folks. Where are Ian, Bob Chill, and Matt Been busy livin the dream. Models look pretty good tonight. I think we're in pretty good shape here in immediate DC metro for a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yes, I understand that. But typically models overdo cold push and mountains normally slow it down. I only see the GFS doing this. water vapor loop sort of has the look of a storm that isn't going to go too far north: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html looks like there's a road block up north and it's being shoved east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Holy GGEM..about 0.85" frozen QPF for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 UKIE is coming out now - looking at the precip maps, I would assume we are going to like this run. Looks wet after 12z Thursday (assuming we flip sometime around then based on prior runs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Holy GGEM..about 0.85" frozen QPF for DC Looks like it flips to frozen at 5 a.m. and is all snow by 9 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ian just posted for CWG on facebook. He might be busy with workI have tomorrow's forecast.. Switched with Dan this week. GFS seems well covered tho. it's all OPM watch now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 UKIE is coming out now - looking at the precip maps, I would assume we are going to like this run. Looks wet after 12z Thursday (assuming we flip sometime around then based on prior runs). Hard to tell but maybe 20mm or a little less after 12z? 22 mm or so after 12z. Very similar to last run. Based on squinting at meteograms it looks like changeover might be a hair later than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 UKIE is coming out now - looking at the precip maps, I would assume we are going to like this run. Looks wet after 12z Thursday (assuming we flip sometime around then based on prior runs). is it wet up here near the PA line? my UK isnt updated yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Hard to tell but maybe 20mm or a little less after 12z? Looking at Meteograms, looks like a bit more than that - probably about 22mm or so after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The CWG map is more bullish than i expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 is it wet up here near the PA line? my UK isnt updated yet Adding up panels, not quite as wet as down here but you would flip earlier. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?run=00&mode=latest&map=na&mod=ukmet〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The CWG map is more bullish than i expected. It's so vague there is really no way it can be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looking at Meteograms, looks like a bit more than that - probably about 22mm or so after 12z. yeah...about 0.85" after 12z. My guess is me and you go frozen at around 11z, and snow around 13z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 00z UKIE meteogram - http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=ukmet&run=00&var=std〈=en&map=us And using 12z THUR as flip hour, DCA is 23mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 00z UKIE meteogram - http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=ukmet&run=00&var=std〈=en&map=us And using 12z THUR as flip hour, DCA is 29mm That is alot of frozen QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 yeah...about 0.85" after 12z. My guess is me and you go frozen at around 11z, and snow around 13z. I feel good that we will verify WSW criteria, especially if Euro holds. It'd be my biggest snowfall of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just took a quick glance at the GEFS (yes, I know that we are 24 hrs or so from the start)... but it is wet... 72 hr precip max total is 2.23" right over DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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