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3/4 - 3/5 Post-Frontal Snow Chance


Capt. Adam

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A few things of note , change the title of this thread as it doesn't do this major winter storm justice .

as was originally opined this system has legs and has trended both wetter and colder.

Gone are the 700mb issues the NAM had yesterday along with the bust potential of a release SE.

This has a ability to put down a wide spread 8 to 12 .This storm gets colder as we get deeper into it so ratios increase on the back end.

PB you seem bullish on this one, and that does give me pause, because you seem to know what you are talking about, though you are pretty far from me ( central NJ, I think you are on LI? ) so don't know if you mean area wide. I am in that small spot on the NAM that gets less next SI.

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PB you seem bullish on this one, and that does give me pause, because you seem to know what you are talking about, though you are pretty far from me ( central NJ, I think you are on LI? ) so don't know if you mean area wide. I am in that small spot on the NAM that gets less next SI.

I think we see a lot of 8 inch amounts.

Someone gets 12 and where that happens gets sorted today.

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Gefs crushes the ares. Sref also. Should be a great day of model watching.

Gave my plowing days up in 96.  I sold my truck and plow and swore never to do again.   14hrs, 2hr break   24hrs, 4 hr break, 16 hrs, 6 hr break,  10hrs  9 hr break  6hrs plowing.  That was just the 3ft storm.  Picked up a lot of new work that others did not do.   Made $36K on one lot

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9z SREF

1q6f89.gif

Even though the SREFS %$^& this is where the heaviest snow axis should be with this S down towards the Philly area . The NAM is just to far NW with an arctic wave .

I still think we see a lot of 8s but the double digit totals may be off to  the SW .

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Even though the SREFS %$^& this is where the heaviest snow axis should be with this S down towards the Philly area . The NAM is just to far NW with an arctic wave .

I still think we see a lot of 8s but the double digit totals may be off to  the SW .

 

Beautiful subtropical moisture El Nino feed there. Nino 4 just hit the warmest reading since

the 09-10 El Nino this week.

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The NWS discussion relevant to the possible 3/4-5 system:

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...INTERACTING WITH A SW US
LOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING THAT
ECMWF/CMC/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD...WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW MEMBER SPREAD...WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO
DIFFERENCES IN INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH SW
LOW.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WED EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS WED NIGHT. A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...TRACKING NE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR 1/3 TO
1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO A
MOIST SW FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLY
EVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A WARM LAYER AT
700MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING BASED ON STRONG JET DYNAMICS
AND MODEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

SO POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

 

Considering that the last 6" or greater snowfall in March in NYC occurred on March 1-2, 2009 and that there have only been 5 such storms since 1970, this is a quite bullish idea. Details, of course, have yet to be resolved.

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Not that much south

9z plumes are around 5" for much of the area. 3z was around 10" and overall the precip shield was juicier.....but I think something was wrong with that run anyway. (Plus the SREFs are terrible in general).....looks like a nice 4-7" if I had to take a guess right now with 7-10" off to our south. I'd gladly take that as a nice way to close out this cold, snowy period
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I think safe bet is 4-8 NYC ..I believe by tonight oz NWS may issue watches ...or maybe by 12z ...we shall see ..

IMO this winter to say  "safe bet" this far out is is risky proposition at best - have to remember this is a very dynamic situation setting up and depends totally on timing as percip is moving in and colder air is moving in at the same time - where exactly to they end up mixing at just the right time to produce optimal results ? That question IMO cannot be answered yet

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Considering that the last 6" or greater snowfall in March in NYC occurred on March 1-2, 2009 and that there have only been 5 such storms since 1970, this is a quite bullish idea. Details, of course, have yet to be resolved.

That March storm was really nice. Got 10 inches from that.

 

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IMO this winter to say "safe bet" this far out is is risky proposition at best - have to remember this is a very dynamic situation setting up and depends totally on timing as percip is moving in and colder air is moving in at the same time - where exactly to they end up mixing at just the right time to produce optimal results ? That question IMO cannot be answered yet

I agree ; guess one step at a time let's see where models are by tonight oz suite
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