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March 5th Snow Threat


WxUSAF

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I was looking at the mid levels which are faster.

yeah i knew that but it looked like freezing line was a hair slower to us on 12 v 0 but it's basically the same on wxbell. not that it's critical per se given temps are going to drop either way as it goes.

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yeah i knew that but it looked like freezing line was a hair slower to us on 12 v 0 but it's basically the same on wxbell. not that it's critical per se given temps are going to drop either way as it goes.

 

As long as we are at or below freezing by 7am, things look pretty good for a high impact event. Temps in the low/mid 20's by 1pm and lots of rippage. This is going to be fun. 

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As long as we are at or below freezing by 7am, things look pretty good for a high impact event. Temps in the low/mid 20's by 1pm and lots of rippage. This is going to be fun. 

yes probably. i'm leaning 4-8ish imby at this point i think.

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12z GFS has intense frontogenetical forcing in deformation zone after 06z Thursday. Surface low to our south will help draw arctic air south and with all that pacific and gulf moisture streaming in I think there will be some intense rates

I do not think it will take until 7am for DC area to be mostly snow, more like midnight-3am.  Temps are going to drop 20-25 degrees in 12-15 hours and I do not think the warm air will be able to get up and over some half out the door cold air mass but rather the rising milder air will be mixed out by the cold blast.

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yes probably. i'm leaning 4-8ish imby at this point i think.

 

 

Good range. 4" seems kinda easy at this point. 8" is a different story. Someone to the nw or even ne could pull off double digits. I'm just assuming an overall 10-1 ratio. We may have some fluff when things get cold but the beginning should be a <10-1 pasting for a time. 

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The only thing that would concern me (heck, it's not even that big of a deal with those rates), is the fact that the bulk of snow would be falling during the day. I realize that the BL and surface layer will be plenty cold, but the early March sun angle will factor in like it did not with the pre-dawn event last St Patty's Day (when here in Crofton we got 8.5"). Nothing we can do about, but something to keep in mind. Even over the elevated areas out west that were all snow on March 6, 2013, while they were plenty cold at the surface, they saw their accumulation rate ("efficiency") cut back a bit after 12Z.

I'll take what we get, but honestly would love it if most of it fell at night.

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The only thing that would concern me (heck, it's not even that big of a deal with those rates), is the fact that the bulk of snow would be falling during the day. I realize that the BL and surface layer will be plenty cold, but the early March sun angle will factor in like it did not with the pre-dawn event last St Patty's Day (when here in Crofton we got 8.5"). Nothing we can do about, but something to keep in mind. Even over the elevated areas out west that were all snow on March 6, 2013, while they were plenty cold at the surface, they saw their accumulation rate ("efficiency") cut back a bit after 12Z.

I'll take what we get, but honestly would love it if most of it fell at night.

Couldn't that downside be mitigated if there's a small base of frozen precip on the ground by the time the sun gets super high?

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The only thing that would concern me (heck, it's not even that big of a deal with those rates), is the fact that the bulk of snow would be falling during the day. I realize that the BL and surface layer will be plenty cold, but the early March sun angle will factor in like it did not with the pre-dawn event last St Patty's Day (when here in Crofton we got 8.5"). Nothing we can do about, but something to keep in mind. Even over the elevated areas out west that were all snow on March 6, 2013, while they were plenty cold at the surface, they saw their accumulation rate ("efficiency") cut back a bit after 12Z.

I'll take what we get, but honestly would love it if most of it fell at night.

 

I disagree. I'd rather be awake to see it fall.

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