Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Pittsburgh, PA Thread: Late Winter/Early Spring 2015


Recommended Posts

NAM looks amazing for later this week. If the GFS were biting on this I'd feel better about it. My gut says this may end up further SE than what the NAM shows. We definitely want the cold front to be slow, so if a stronger wave can develop along it that may help to slow it down. 00z wise, the UKMET, NAM, and Canadian would all be a solid snowfall. I didn't see what the Euro had.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 877
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Looks like NWS isn't putting much weight into these big solutions either:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT
RACING TOWARD THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A
QUICK END TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PROVIDE A QUIET BUT
COLD END TO THE WEEK. TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
SEPARATE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like NWS isn't putting much weight into these big solutions either:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT

RACING TOWARD THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A

QUICK END TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PROVIDE A QUIET BUT

COLD END TO THE WEEK. TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY...BUT

BY SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES AS MODEL SOLUTIONS

SEPARATE.

This might very well be the case - but factually incorrect at this point. "Most" of the models show the sig storm idea, not front racing off the coast. Could be a sign of increased GFS confidence

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This might very well be the case - but factually incorrect at this point. "Most" of the models show the sig storm idea, not front racing off the coast. Could be a sign of increased GFS confidence

Yeah that part about most models had me scratching my head too.

 

Anyways, 12z GFS is better looking for sure vs previous runs.

gfs_namer_075_precip_p24.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I swear if this thing misses us to the south again I am gonna lose it. I may move away to a tropical island and cut all contact with technology. With that being said the GFS is coming into alignment with the other models. Hopefully we can get the last minute north shift ala 2010.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 products issued by NWS for: Pittsburgh PA


Flood Watch
FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA1111 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015...The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a floodwatch for the following rivers in Pennsylvania...West Virginia...  Monongahela River Near Charleroi affecting Fayette...Washington  and Westmoreland Counties  Monongahela River Near Elizabeth affecting Allegheny...Washington  and Westmoreland Counties  Cheat River At Rowlesburg affecting Preston County.  A low pressure system developing today in the Southwest UnitedStates will sweep eastward over the next 36 to 48 hours bringingwidespread precipitation to our region. Across the Monongahela andCheat river basins, the precipitation is expected to fall primarilyas rain. Rainfall amounts anticipated at this time across theseriver basins are expected to range from 1.00 to 1.75 inches.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...SAFETY MESSAGE...a watch means that flooding is possible but not acertainty. rainfall of 1.50 inches to 2.00 may cause flooding.actual rainfall amounts and potential flooding will ultimately dependon the direction and speed of the storm. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREASHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED FOR IMMEDIATEACTION SHOULD HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OCCUR OR A RIVER FLOOD WARNINGBE ISSUED.&&PAC003-125-129-031611-/O.NEW.KPBZ.FL.A.0002.150305T1044Z-150306T0645Z//ELZP1.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/1111 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a* Flood Watch for  The Monongahela River Near Elizabeth* from late Wednesday night to late Thursday night.* At 10:15 AM Monday the stage was 11.4 feet.* Minor flooding is possible.* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.* Forecast...Flood stage may be reached by Thursday morning.$$
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I get the funny feeling that this is going to be a rain changing to snow scenario with most of the moisture gone by the time the front moves through and it changes over. Seen it play out like that many times over the years. Hope I'm wrong.

You could be right, but given this is a wave riding up the cold front I think it would take the front getting stalled pretty far NW of what most guidance has now to allow that to happen. I'm more concerned about a wiff to the SE still.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 products issued by NWS for: Pittsburgh PA


Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA241 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015PAZ007-013-014-020>023-073-074-030300-/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0019.150303T1700Z-150304T0000Z/MERCER-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GROVE CITY...NEW CASTLE...BUTLER...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...INDIANA...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL241 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM NOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE TO .05 INCH.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN AN INCH.* SNOW/ICE BEGINNING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF  SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY.* SNOW/ICE ENDING...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY  TUESDAY EVENING.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO  SNOW...SLEET AND ICE COVERED ROADS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZINGRAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING ANDREPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICEBY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOKPAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.&&$$
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 I'm more concerned about a wiff to the SE still.

 

Yeah, that could definitely happen as well. We're still going to get a mix to rain tomorrow into Wednesday from the first low tracking well to our west. After that, we just have to hope for good timing to get a track that gives us some decent snow Wednesday night. A lot of things have to work in our favor once again for this to pan out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...