Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,515
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    chrislittlenews
    Newest Member
    chrislittlenews
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
jaxjagman

Tn Valley March 4-6 Storm OBS

Recommended Posts

So are you saying this is like the storm around the 14th of Feb that was suppose to result in inches of snow but endedup going to KY and giving us sleet and ice?

Not sure to be real honest

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure to be real honest

Neither am I at this point either; honestly the snow drought has to end soon; seems like there is something wrong with the 18Z snow maps; the tabular out put would result in more snow than it is depicting around here; just makes me nervous to see the Euro suddenly flip, guess if it is not flipped back over night then I can really worry!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More than half of that qpf is sleet. But ratios should be good. At this juncture I think 2 inches of sleet and 3-6 inches of snow is not out of the question for Nashville.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More than half of that qpf is sleet. But ratios should be good. At this juncture I think 2 inches of sleet and 3-6 inches of snow is not out of the question for Nashville.

Agree,the ratios should be awesome

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Neither am I at this point either; honestly the snow drought has to end soon; seems like there is something wrong with the 18Z snow maps; the tabular out put would result in more snow than it is depicting around here; just makes me nervous to see the Euro suddenly flip, guess if it is not flipped back over night then I can really worry!

Neither am I at this point either; honestly the snow drought has to end soon; seems like there is something wrong with the 18Z snow maps; the tabular out put would result in more snow than it is depicting around here; just makes me nervous to see the Euro suddenly flip, guess if it is not flipped back over night then I can really worry!

I wouldn't worry about any model at this point. Right up to events some have been off this year. The bad thing is that not all the same models have been right. One handled a storm well then whiffed on the next storm and so on. But don't worry about the euro. It has consistently buried the western 2/3rds of the state and at 12z today it did again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN

907 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES

CONTINUE IN PARTS OF THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATE

CONTINUED SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE

OVERALL BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE SO LOWERED POPS A TAD AND REMOVED

THUNDER MENTION. SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER IN RESPONSE TO

UPPER TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS...AND TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM

OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN RISE THE REST OF THE

NIGHT AS WAA INCREASES AND SW LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 30 KTS. STILL

LOOKING AT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS

ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES

TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 18Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...00Z NAM...21Z

SREF...AND HPC CONTINUE OVERALL TREND FOR WINTER STORM ON

WEDNESDAY WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF QPF BEHIND A POWERFUL COLD

FRONT...ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO

CREATE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE RESULTANT DOMINANT PRECIP TYPES

AND ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR CWA. 00Z NAM IN PARTICULAR BRINGS COLD

FRONT MUCH MORE SLOWLY INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY VERSUS OTHER

MODELS AND KEEPS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STEADY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY

DESPITE STRONG CAA. THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE AS THE POTENT ARCTIC

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG CAA SHOULD FORCE COLD FRONT

MORE QUICKLY/FURTHER THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRASTICALLY FALLING

TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT A LA THE GFS/ECMWF. FORECAST ALREADY LEANS

IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE. OF

NOTE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A CONSIDERABLE WARM

NOSE AROUND 750MB FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE

FZRA/IP VERSUS SNOW. ALSO OF NOTE...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE NO

COMPARABLE SNOW EVENTS TO THIS ONE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHICH

SHOWS HOW UNUSUAL THIS UPCOMING WINTER STORM SETUP WILL BE.

Nashville don't beleive the NAM,good to hear..lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is apparently the year of the sleet storm.

Be worse though than than last one,isnt part of your neck of the woods still without power from the last storm,seem i heard it on the news

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Be worse though than than last one,isnt part of your neck of the woods still without power from the last storm,seem i heard it on the news

Parts of the Plateau are still in the dark. Crossville looks like freezing rain then 4-6 inches of snow. I generally get very similar weather to there or somerset KY.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

208 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE

MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW...

WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW

RAIN TO CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW IN MANY

AREAS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT

ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE WINDCHILLS INTO THE SINGLE

DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO...AND MAY AID IN SPORADIC POWER

OUTAGES WHERE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FALL.

ARZ036-048-049-058-MSZ001>005-007-008-010>012-TNZ021-022-049-050-

052>055-088>092-032300-

/O.UPG.KMEG.WS.A.0004.150304T1800Z-150305T1200Z/

/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.W.0004.150304T1800Z-150305T1200Z/

CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-

TIPPAH-ALCORN-TUNICA-TATE-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-CARROLL-

BENTON TN-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY-

FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST MEMPHIS...MARION...FORREST CITY...

MARIANNA...WEST HELENA...HELENA...SOUTHAVEN...OLIVE BRANCH...

HORN LAKE...HOLLY SPRINGS...ASHLAND...HICKORY FLAT...RIPLEY...

CORINTH...NORTH TUNICA...TUNICA...SENATOBIA...COLDWATER...

CLARKSDALE...LAMBERT...MARKS...CROWDER...SLEDGE...BATESVILLE...

SARDIS...MCKENZIE...HUNTINGDON...BRUCETON...CAMDEN...COVINGTON...

MUNFORD...ATOKA...BROWNSVILLE...JACKSON...HENDERSON...LEXINGTON...

PARSONS...DECATURVILLE...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...COLLIERVILLE...

MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...OAKLAND...GALLAWAY...BOLIVAR...

WHITEVILLE...SELMER...ADAMSVILLE...SAVANNAH

208 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST

THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT

FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH

IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4

INCHES...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES...AND ICE

ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

* TIMING...12 PM CST WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yes, seems to be correcting back south

Still slower than the GFS and Euro.It doesn't allow the colder air to get in quicker.Looking at my text comparing it to the euro and GFS around midnight it's almost 4C warmer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still slower than the GFS and Euro.It doesn't allow the colder air to get in quicker.Looking at my text comparing it to the euro and GFS around midnight it's almost 4C warmer

I would think that we should have models converging on a similar solution around the noon time frame right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would think that we should have models converging on a similar solution around the noon time frame right?

Cant see them changing much after that,who knows

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×