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Ice/Wintery Mix Event 3/1


stormtracker

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I'm going by the 1000-500 mb thickness chart.   The 5400 line moves north of DC around 10 am and Baltimore around 11:30 to noon.  Anything that falls before then should be snow.   It could be mixed snow and sleet for an hour at the turnover.

problem is, very little precip in our area before 1PM, and nothing before 10AM

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I'm going by the 1000-500 mb thickness chart. The 5400 line moves north of DC around 10 am and Baltimore around 11:30 to noon. Anything that falls before then should be snow. It could be mixed snow and sleet for an hour at the turnover.

The 540 line is a very basic method of predicting snow. It's pretty old school and only one method. It's good to look at thicknesses from the top down...1000-500, 850-700, 1000-850. Also look at forecast soundings and see where the temp line relates to 0c and how spread the dew point depressions and wet bulb is. Then factor in the ground temps and precip rates.

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The 540 line is a very basic method of predicting snow. It's pretty old school and only one method. It's good to look at thicknesses from the top down...1000-500, 850-700, 1000-850. Also look at forecast soundings and see where the temp line relates to 0c and how spread the dew point depressions and wet bulb is. Then factor in the ground temps and precip rates.

As soon as you open a gift account, we can pony up for these pointers.  :pimp:

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problem is, very little precip in our area before 1PM, and nothing before 10AM

Dry is always the enemy.

I don't usually make fun of the NAM, but look at the 12 hr precip panels at 21z tomorrow from the latest run and the 12z from this morning. Looks like two different storms.

Also noticed the RAP came in with a different look over the past couple of hours. Makes me wonder about data and about accuracy

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As soon as you open a gift account, we can pony up for these pointers. :pimp:

There are general rule of thumbs to look for with thicknesses. Google each of the ones I gave you to get the general numbers for freezing/snow etc. soundings are much better to look at but thicknesses are another tool.

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