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Early spring thread


Eastatlwx

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NWS GSP says the following which to my non-expert eye looks promising for spring weather:

 

AS OF 325 AM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE ONLY HINTED AT DURING
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MAJOR
WESTERN CONUS HEIGHT FALLS FORCE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST...WITH
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST COAST BY DAY
7.

 

 

However, folks in the winter pattern thread are suggesting a cold March; don't know what to think.

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Contrary to last year, the SST in the gulf are not below average however this may change as we progess through the season, the current tends to float around obviously like other ocean currents. This above anomaly if persisent will increase the moisture available from the gulf fueling thunderstorms, in the short to medium range we will have a sneak peek at spring temperature wise and hopefully precipitation wise pt.1

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post-12398-0-93368000-1425055554_thumb.j

post-12398-0-57521300-1425055574_thumb.j

post-12398-0-91440200-1425055656_thumb.j

post-12398-0-24512100-1425055716_thumb.j

post-12398-0-34634800-1425055727_thumb.j

post-12398-0-65570900-1425055742_thumb.j

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Shawn what does this mean?

 

Well, in my opinion not much.  Just throwing what kind of severe outbreak out there for what could be possible.  There are too many model differences and the setup even on the GFS isn't very good for a true severe outbreak at this point.

 

Just wanted to put it out there IN CASE something changes.  Dr. Forbes has this to say about it:

 

A chance of isolated severe thunderstorms in south AL, southeast MS, southeast LA, GA, western SC.  TOR:CON - less than 2, with damaging gusts the main threat. Computer models differ and the upper trough has positive tilt, reducing confidence and possibly holding down the threat relative to yesterday's forecasts.

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This is good.... a May thread in February. :D

 

I'm over winter... I should already have cabbage and broccoli planted out.

 

I just purchased some seeds from Victory Seeds (first time using them?  Wondering if anyone has experience with their products?)

 

My family think that I'm crazy doing it so soon and believe I have sealed the deal for one more Arctic and possibly Wintry storm in doing so around this area.

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I just purchased some seeds from Victory Seeds (first time using them?  Wondering if anyone has experience with their products?)

 

My family think that I'm crazy doing it so soon and believe I have sealed the deal for one more Arctic and possibly Wintry storm in doing so around this area.

I have used Victory Seeds with great success.  I bought my seeds from Southern Exposure Seed Exchange back in early January just to make sure I go the hard to find ones while still in stock.  They keep forever so why not.

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Lows will ride along the southeast ridge deflecting them towards the lakes which draw up gulf moisture and warm air advection into our region, however there is going to be cold air damming stuck in place initially because confluence in the short range, as storms ride along the boundary we will receive plentiful rain, however this looks to be a short term warm up and cold should spread eastward in the medium range.

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LOL, the big warm up talked about below produces above normal high temps for this area for a total of one day in the 7 day forecast;  6 days below normal high temps; however, it would be largely above normal for mid January:

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE STORY CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A WARMER/WET
REGIME...AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THUS...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
WITHIN HYBRID CAD/LIGHT PRECIP REGIME ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A VERY WET COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN STATES DURING MID-WEEK. COOL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY WEEKS END...AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS.
 

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LOL, the big warm up talked about below produces above normal high temps for this area for a total of one day in the 7 day forecast; 6 days below normal high temps; however, it would be largely above normal for mid January:

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE STORY CONTINUES TO

REVOLVE AROUND THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A WARMER/WET

REGIME...AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH FORCES HEIGHT RISES ALONG

THE EAST COAST. THUS...AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS

WITHIN HYBRID CAD/LIGHT PRECIP REGIME ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL

REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A VERY WET COLD

FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY

RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN STATES DURING MID-WEEK. COOL WEATHER IS

ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY WEEKS END...AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER

TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CONUS.

and it's in association with alot of rain. I don't know about you but 50's and 60's with sun sure would feel great.
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and it's in association with alot of rain. I don't know about you but 50's and 60's with sun sure would feel great.

 

I would like that as well but it is looking like the third consecutive spring with a persistent east coast trough with just an occasional brief shift in the pattern.  Rain wise the current 7-day forecast looks typical for a February during a strong El Nino year.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Wow!

 

I'm sorry, Eastatlwx, but I couldn't make heads or tails of all those screen grabs you posted above.  I suppose they were five different types of images of the same storm, but where are they located?  Was this a current image when you posted?  Were we all in danger?  Should I take cover now?  I am still alive?

 

Context, man.  Context.

 

And why are these images posted in this thread as opposed to the March Observations?

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I'm sorry, Eastatlwx, but I couldn't make heads or tails of all those screen grabs you posted above. I suppose they were five different types of images of the same storm, but where are they located? Was this a current image when you posted? Were we all in danger? Should I take cover now? I am still alive?

Context, man. Context.

And why are these images posted in this thread as opposed to the March Observations?

sorry man, it was the supercell in eastern North Carolina today, I forgot to put on the cities and towns, I look forward to posting more when severe weather arrives.
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Well written article from Michael Ventrice on the current El Nino - http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/evidence-that-the-atmospheric-oceanic-system-is-evolving-towards-a-strong-el-nino/

 

"BOTTOM LINE: Amplification of the current El Nino event is anticipated this Spring. We suspect that this year’s El Nino event will likely be stronger than last years event. This suggests the upcoming summer will feature another active tropical cyclone season over the West Pacific and Eastern Pacific. Like what was observed last year and written in a number of blogs (example), strong West Pacific typhoons can impact circulation in the Northern Hemisphere that results in downstream impacts across the U.S. that often generates colder than average temperatures. Further as the current set up stands today, the Atlantic Hurricane Season is looking like to be another dud. More details to come in the official Hurricane and U.S. Summer outlooks."

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