metwannabe Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 further S shift would leave us here wondering WTF just happened,especially the W parts Lol do you have a snow blower lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Lol do you have a snow blower lol? you're cruel..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 need to start a thread,who's doing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45901-tn-valley-march-4-6/ started a thread for March 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Sticking with the euro,still taking it off the NC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 the euro crushes us guys,with the exeption of the east Valley getting 3" the rest of the Valley is 8-12" should say most of Tn is gonna get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 What a dreadful looking week coming up. GFS says we won't see the sun for 10 days once the rain comes with a big meandering upper low while the Euro seems to kick it out quicker. In the meantime 2-4" of rain on the southern end of the valley with the potential for more across the whole area; a serious flood potential could be developing...I am headed to the Desert Southwest for spring break in a week where the current forecast in Phoenix and Death Valley are highs in the upper 80s and all sun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Looks like a rather wet period like Mr.Bob said.Both the GFS and Euro is showing an inverted trough in the Valley with a system coming up from the GOM.The end of the period for the TRI area maybe a late season snow delight,both models are hinting at this.The weeklies look like they will keep us chilled into April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 That low on the gfs has been taking a tropical storm path. It was forming off the Yucatan then coming across the gulf into Louisiana, then straight up to Memphis where it meanders east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 That low on the gfs has been taking a tropical storm path. It was forming off the Yucatan then coming across the gulf into Louisiana, then straight up to Memphis where it meanders east. Euro shows it also just timing differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 To bad we missed this during the winter time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Late season cold snap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 ENSO Alert System El Nino NOAA s guidelines have been met AccuWeather.com Forums.png www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov products analysis_monitoring lanina enso_evolution status fcsts web.pdf.png Next winter so what does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 so what does that mean? At the beginning of February, I mentioned this as a reason for Feb going cold and snowy. The southern branch, especially GOM, has awakened and now really about to go nuts. Gong to rain like crazy. If we get any more cold, winter will come back - maybe some big spring snows in the mtns at least. As for next winter, Niños are fickle creatures. If it stays weak, we are in business. If it is moderate to strong, the the winter will be basically cold rain. We are in real trouble right now to echo Mr Bob. The rivers in NE TN are full. We get very much rain at all and flooding is going to be a real issue. Back to next winter...the Niño looks on the high end of a weak Niño. I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I do think the sun being in such a weak state is making it tough for the Niño to reach weak levels. IMO, should have been there earlier than now. During the 90s and strong Ninos, the sunspot numbers and strength were through the roof. It would be interesting to see if the sun went quiet again towards the end of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Well, this is interesting....look at the sunspot numbers this winter and compare them to DJF temps...might explain why Niño has struggled to finally reach Niño levels. Also correlates(?) to cold temps - maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Every CPC teleconnection today now points to a late season cold outbreak after mid-month. The AO is set to really tank, PNA to positive, and the NAO flirting with negative. We will see if those hold in the coming days as they have been less than sold indicators this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Well, this is interesting....look at the sunspot numbers this winter and compare them to DJF temps...might explain why Niño has struggled to finally reach Niño levels. Also correlates(?) to cold temps - maybe. image.jpg I am a firm believer in sunspots and the correlation it has with the weather; something to keep in mind, we are seeing less sunpsots now than they were back in the Little Ice Age and we have computerized telescopes on the sun 24/7; just something to consider. We honestly should know within a few years what impact it has by then it should be undeniable that the earth is cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 At the beginning of February, I mentioned this as a reason for Feb going cold and snowy. The southern branch, especially GOM, has awakened and now really about to go nuts. Gong to rain like crazy. If we get any more cold, winter will come back - maybe some big spring snows in the mtns at least. As for next winter, Niños are fickle creatures. If it stays weak, we are in business. If it is moderate to strong, the the winter will be basically cold rain. We are in real trouble right now to echo Mr Bob. The rivers in NE TN are full. We get very much rain at all and flooding is going to be a real issue. Back to next winter...the Niño looks on the high end of a weak Niño. I will take it. Ok, that is what i was assuming was meant; I was honestly expecting more snow in my area this Winter but we all know that seasonal snow is first flake to last flake; the water table is high in northern middle TN too looks like we are actually headed into another wet Spring and Summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 If the PDO remains in a warm state next year and we have an El Nino it should make for a decent winter. When both are present the southeast has below normal temps and above normal precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Every CPC teleconnection today now points to a late season cold outbreak after mid-month. The AO is set to really tank, PNA to positive, and the NAO flirting with negative. We will see if those hold in the coming days as they have been less than sold indicators this winter. Just don't think winter is done with,one last surge seems a distinct possibility.We got to thread the needle,a rather small needle needless to say..lol The AO looks even better than yesterday.The MJO is into at this time phase 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 March 18 1925- F4 tornado rips a 60 mile path from near Buck Lodge (8 miles north of Gallatin) to Barren County, KY. Homes are swept away in many communities, including Keytown, Angle, Oak Grove, and Liberty. As many as 8 people die in one home. Trees are blown down in steep valleys as well as on hilltops. At least 27 people are killed in Sumner County. Crossing into KY, the tornado strikes Holland, killing 4, and Beaumont, killing 8 more. Over 150 homes are damaged or destroyed. There are a total of 39 fatalities, and 95 injuries. This is the deadliest tornado ever to strike Middle Tennessee.2002- Widespread heavy rainfall begins during the afternoon of the 17th and lasts into the early morning of the 18th. A total of 5 persons are killed across Middle Tennessee, three in Robertson County, one in Lewisburg, another in Nashville. All 5 deaths are vehicle-related. Manchester receives the most rainfall -- 6.44" in 24 hours, with Dickson reporting 5.45", Warner Park (Nashville), 4.12", and Morrison (Warren County), 3.67".March 19 1996- Nashville receives 8.7" of snow.March 20 1968- Nashville measures 8.2" of snow in a rare late-season winter weather event.March 21 1907- Temperature at Nashville reaches 89, setting a record high for the month.1932- F4 tornado strikes 2 miles west of Pulaski, killing 5 people in one of 10 destroyed homes. Homes are said to have been destroyed as completely in the valleys as on the hilltops. There are $120,000 in damages. F2 tornado hits Cannon County, striking near the Mt. Ararat, Sugar Tree, and Rock House communities. Ten homes are destroyed, and a woman and her son are killed in one of them. Overall, 5 tornadoes are reported across Middle Tennessee.1955- Columbia records its greatest one-day rainfall ever, with 5.75".March 22 1955- Nashville measures precipitation for the 11th consecutive day, setting a record.1968- An unusual late-season snowstorm strikes the mid state, as Murfreesboro (5 N) receives its greatest one-day snowfall ever, measuring 10", as does Lebanon (3 W), with 9".1991- F2 tornado hits Lewis County. The tornado moves from Sweetwater to Hohenwald. Three homes, eight trailers, and six businesses are completely destroyed by the tornado. A four month old baby girl is killed after being blown from her father's arms at an apartment in Hohenwald. Lots of historic events in Mid Tn March 18-22 for Mid Tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 March 18 1925- F4 tornado rips a 60 mile path from near Buck Lodge (8 miles north of Gallatin) to Barren County, KY. Homes are swept away in many communities, including Keytown, Angle, Oak Grove, and Liberty. As many as 8 people die in one home. Trees are blown down in steep valleys as well as on hilltops. At least 27 people are killed in Sumner County. Crossing into KY, the tornado strikes Holland, killing 4, and Beaumont, killing 8 more. Over 150 homes are damaged or destroyed. There are a total of 39 fatalities, and 95 injuries. This is the deadliest tornado ever to strike Middle Tennessee. 2002- Widespread heavy rainfall begins during the afternoon of the 17th and lasts into the early morning of the 18th. A total of 5 persons are killed across Middle Tennessee, three in Robertson County, one in Lewisburg, another in Nashville. All 5 deaths are vehicle-related. Manchester receives the most rainfall -- 6.44" in 24 hours, with Dickson reporting 5.45", Warner Park (Nashville), 4.12", and Morrison (Warren County), 3.67". March 19 1996- Nashville receives 8.7" of snow. March 20 1968- Nashville measures 8.2" of snow in a rare late-season winter weather event. March 21 1907- Temperature at Nashville reaches 89, setting a record high for the month. 1932- F4 tornado strikes 2 miles west of Pulaski, killing 5 people in one of 10 destroyed homes. Homes are said to have been destroyed as completely in the valleys as on the hilltops. There are $120,000 in damages. F2 tornado hits Cannon County, striking near the Mt. Ararat, Sugar Tree, and Rock House communities. Ten homes are destroyed, and a woman and her son are killed in one of them. Overall, 5 tornadoes are reported across Middle Tennessee. 1955- Columbia records its greatest one-day rainfall ever, with 5.75". March 22 1955- Nashville measures precipitation for the 11th consecutive day, setting a record. 1968- An unusual late-season snowstorm strikes the mid state, as Murfreesboro (5 N) receives its greatest one-day snowfall ever, measuring 10", as does Lebanon (3 W), with 9". 1991- F2 tornado hits Lewis County. The tornado moves from Sweetwater to Hohenwald. Three homes, eight trailers, and six businesses are completely destroyed by the tornado. A four month old baby girl is killed after being blown from her father's arms at an apartment in Hohenwald. Lots of historic events in Mid Tn March 18-22 for Mid Tn My grandparents lived in Buck Lodge. The scars left by tornadoes like that stay for generations. I can remember walking with him through the woods and stiil able too see the wind field. I believe it was an F4 back then they just knew it was an especially bad tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Back to the flood potential.The Euro now is showing the inverted trough in the Valley with a warm front lifting N with a cold front headed S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Nashville disco FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD...A MILD...CLOUDY AND WET PATTERNIS EXPECTED. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GRADUALEVOLUTION OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THISTROUGH...FEEDING MOISTURE INTO MID TN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ACHANCE OF RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THEWEEK...THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTOTUESDAY AS A WAVE COMES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THEN THURSDAY ANDFRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND EXPANDS TO OURWEST. THIS WILL SET UP A FETCH OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE AS A SURFACELOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTSCOULD TOTAL SEVERAL INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK...PERHAPS 3 OR 4INCHES IN SOME AREAS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Can I exchange the flood card for the severe one that only results in epic lightning and loud booming thunder with no damage? k thankx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Teleconnections do not paint a pretty picture after mid month. The signal is there for more snow when combined with a wicked MJO. At the very least, we are looking at severe flooding and some huge mountain snows if those verify. As with anything in WX, nothing is certain but would appear we may not be done. Will make for cold ground when gardens get planted in early May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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