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3/1-2/2015 SWFE/Wave Discussion


SR Airglow

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1995-96   107.6"

2014-15   102.0"

 

Should be doable upon this next system... 

 

Interesting to see the NAM > 60 hour total over .7" liq equ.  

 

It is the NAM, but other models trending toward more moisture lends some I would think.   Low end warning... NCEP heavy snow discussion mentioned that this system would be more moist relative to intensity to other parameters...  

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Should be doable upon this next system... 

 

Interesting to see the NAM > 60 hour total over .7" liq equ.  

 

It is the NAM, but other models trending toward more moisture lends some I would think.   Low end warning... NCEP heavy snow discussion mentioned that this system would be more moist relative to intensity to other parameters...  

 

Compared to last weekend, this one certainly has the feel of more upside potential.

 

I'm not completely clear on the mechanics of this. 

This seems like mostly an overrunning event in which case upside potential will be largely determined by how juiced and the track of the wave moving overhead.

 

But another factor that seems to be trending better today is the weak low that forms off the south coast. Can anyone explain the reasons for this low? I could be wrong but not seeing anything obvious like strong PVA around at h5, maybe at h850.

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Compared to last weekend, this one certainly has the feel of more upside potential.

I'm not completely clear on the mechanics of this.

This seems like mostly an overrunning event in which case upside potential will be largely determined by how juiced and the track of the wave moving overhead.

But another factor that seems to be trending better today is the weak low that forms off the south coast. Can anyone explain the reasons for this low? I could be wrong but not seeing anything obvious like strong PVA around at h5, maybe at h850.

The digging shortwave in the lakes is causing the upper level flow to the southeast of it to be more cyclonic. This is in contrast to earlier progs that didn't have this or even last weekend have the flow less curved and more straight out of SW.

As the flow goes more cyclonic in the upper levels, you get a bit of divergence and it will promote low pressure at the sfc. Esp with the aid of the enhanced baroclinicity to the south of SNE.

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The digging shortwave in the lakes is causing the upper level flow to the southeast of it to be more cyclonic. This is in contrast to earlier progs that didn't have this or even last weekend have the flow less curved and more straight out of SW.

As the flow goes more cyclonic in the upper levels, you get a bit of divergence and it will promote low pressure at the sfc. Esp with the aid of the enhanced baroclinicity to the south of SNE.

 

Thanks Will.

I figured baroclinicity had some role.

The digging shortwave over the lakes is so far away. Like over Michigan state at 6z Monday in a relatively low amplitude trough when the low is already popping up off the coast. Good learning...  I didn't realize a digging shortwave can have that kind of cyclogenic influence from so far away.

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NAM coming in more amped again...this thing has been on a pretty distinct trend the past 24 hours.

 

If it keeps doing that, we'll introduce ptype issues for a chunk of the southern areas. But it's also going to increase the chances of warning criteria snows.

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I'm in!

 

Can't do Friday (going up to Maine for the weekend), but I probably could make any improptu GTG the other days.

 

BOS is probably like 1 in 3 to break it IMHO in this next event...show me a few more juiced model runs through 12z tomorrow and it may go to even money odds on the Vegas line.

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Thinking the same

Boston folks should have a mini gtg / shots or something if/when it does, as it seems likely next week.

Once(?) in a lifetime occurrence in something we so love merits some celebration.

I'm in if I'm in town(flying out on Thursday for Europe and won't be back until the 15th), have to pass on the shots though as I'm on antibiotics :(.

And to stay slightly on topic, NAM is beautiful.

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