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3/1-3/2 Winter Storm


Zelocita Weather

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How many times now this winter is it euro or gfs vs ggem ukie nam rgem, this is ridiculous now. Terrible model performance all around

There used to be a time when most of us thought the euro was In its " kill zone " inside 4 days. That's really over. I don't care what the ver score says the model has been bad this winter.

The GFS has improved and I think the GEM has led the way more times this year than I can remember.

But yes I agree. The continuity has been awful this year.

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There used to be a time when most of us thought the euro was In its " kill zone " inside 4 days. That's really over. I don't care what the ver score says the model has been bad this winter.

The GFS has improved and I think the GEM has led the way more times this year than I can remember.

But yes I agree. The continuity has been awful this year.

 

I wonder if there is a way to quantify verification scores during stormy periods, or in regions with lower than expected average geopotential heights? Verification scores only tell part of the story, what we really care about is how they perform the one day of the week where the weather is intriguing... RU was curious about that too.

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I wonder if there is a way to quantify verification scores during stormy periods, or in regions with lower than expected average geopotential heights? Verification scores only tell part of the story, what we really care about is how they perform the one day of the week where the weather is intriguing... RU was curious about that too.

I know chris usually posts the ver scores But it's a great point. We sit and look at run after run and it's hard to convince someone that a model has not acted poorly inside a specific period when we all see it correct.

I am not sure how they or if they can parse the periods. I Guess you can. I just don't think they do.

Hats off to NCEP , hard to convince me that the GFS ensembles were not great this year.

That was a pretty good upgrade.

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I know chris usually posts the ver scores But it's a great point. We sit and look at run after run and it's hard to convince someone that a model has not acted poorly inside a specific period when we all see it correct.

I am not sure how the if you can parse the periods. I Guess you can. I just don't think they do.

Hard off to NCEP , hard to convince me that the GFS ensembles were not great this year.

That was a pretty good upgrade.

 

My guess is that even the Euro is having trouble with the interaction between the Pacific Jet and the massive

wall of -EPO/+PNA blocking. 

 

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It's hard to get too excited about any snow Monday when it looks like it will be followed by a drenching rain a few days later.

 

Not the time of the year where you worry about a snow pack though. The GFS has a follow-up wave to the cutter that gives more snow on Thursday too. Something to keep an eye on moving forward.

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