Whitelakeroy Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 I wouldn't congratulate anyone just yet. This one has such huge bust potential. The NMM and ARW now only graze us (as we're missed to the SW), lol. HRRR looking similar to NMM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Ah ... nothing to congratulate yet as this will be totally a now-cast event as it gets going. Small narrow band that we will not know exact location until the event get going. Yeah the last few HRRR runs are like congrats very south central MI and Indiana! crazy south shift if that is where it goes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Temps and winds are overperforming big time right now. My thermometer is at 56F, my neighbor's is at 58F, and the winds are gusting well over 40MPH.Advisory level winds on trash day...fun times picking up pizza boxes, candy wrappers, and newspaper out of the yard over and over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 This would be crazy. Temp profiles support snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 This would be crazy. Temp profiles support snow too. nam4km_ref_ncus_7.png That would be nice But I give it a 2% chance of happening that way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 That would be nice But I give it a 2% chance of happening that way... The problem is that the area of precip is so narrow, even if it were to fall mostly as snow, the area that is going to get it is going to be VERY localized. Reminds me a lot of a warmer, clipper version of that NYE 2008 storm with how tiny and dynamic it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Tricky call around SE MI. 850 mb temps are pretty marginal for the bulk of the event especially as you head toward Detroit, which would be easier to get away with earlier in the season. OTOH, there looks to be a period of heavy precip rates and overnight/morning timing can't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 This would be crazy. Temp profiles support snow too. nam4km_ref_ncus_7.png I'm going to get up early in the morning like 3-4am to follow this one even though I think it will miss me a bit south.... APX's AFD earlier today was talking about possible TSSN and I can't miss out on a chance at that IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL F-GENRESPONSE AS THIS FEATURE DIVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THESOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE /NICE TOSEE MORE ROBUST MOISTURE SYSTEMS AGAIN/ WITH SHORTWAVE TAPPINGINTO PWATS NEARING 0.50 INCHES. WE MAY EVEN SEE A CONVECTIVEELEMENT TO THIS SYSTEM WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF7-8 DEGC/KM...WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THISWILL BE AN ALL OR NOTHING TYPE OF PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS OURAREA WITH INTENSE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE WITHIN THE F-GENBAND... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Bring it on, even though it probably happen. The convective element does look pretty favorable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Much warmer day today. Currently at 60* and cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 We just had thunder snow here about an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 IT's likely the Hi-Res overcorrected southward, as the latest runs have come back to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 A damp evening with higher temps making it feel more like spring. This weather should get the daffodils to bloom in a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Amazing how quickly the winds shut off after sunset tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 The latest HRRR places the rain/snow line from about downtown Detroit to Ludington later tonight. It stays there for the duration of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 01z HRRR keeps the rain/snow line pretty much stalled during the event. Here it is at 10z. Gonna be a tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 01z HRRR keeps the rain/snow line pretty much stalled during the event. Here it is at 10z. Gonna be a tight gradient. I'm on the good side of that line, but awfully close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 City Airport is 3/-5c and Mount Clemens is -1/-4c, great signs for cold air diving in from the NE. Although we are dropping fast here too already down to 39 after being 42 at the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Current wet bulb temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Still a balmy 55 here. Next snowflakes are probably another 7-8 months away for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 We hit 59 yesterday and reached 65 today. Two gorgeous days after Saturday's misery. Looks like we will get into the 70's Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The last time we reached 70+ three days in a row was Oct. 25-28 last year. Starting to wonder when we will hit 80 for the first time. Last year it was April 1st. This is going to be the third straight March without an 80 degree day. Not surprising as since 2000 we have only recorded a March 80 degree day in 2000, 2004, 2007, 2011, and 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Much of Iowa soared into the 70s today. CR topped out at 73. We'll end the month with two days of 70+ and one 80+, not bad at all for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 First snowflakes just got going here after a little virga to start. HRRR keeps trending north, the latest run has MBY getting 0.4" QPF, maybe I can squeak out a couple inches or so afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Heavy snow here. No mix right now. Huge flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Epic outside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Very nice cottonballs coming down here right now, around 1/4" so far and adding up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Epic outside... This is pretty intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Unbelievable flake size....holy smokes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Never seen anything like this in my life..everything is covered...but the flake size is just incredible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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