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2/25 event venting/whining/whatever thread


BullCityWx

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LOLL

Big bust for most everyone in the Carolina's and Georgia.

We just live too far South. Time to face reality.

Tired of hearing live too far in the South. It was a bust for a lot of folks, pure and simple. No excuses about where we live. Where was the model showing a 7000' warm nose raging up this way? Oh wait, that's right, nowhere..

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I feel like for the majority of us, we just like to lay the blame on the Mets bc it's easy. When in reality for the majority that use these forums we set our own expectations based off of models and not the Mets. We get mad when a model shows a foot and the local mets say 2-4, we get mad when the Mets finally cave to what the models are saying and then it doesn't happen. It's amazing the emotions these storms bring out. I'm one of the worst, you can ask my wife.

 

You are wise beyond your years.  Unless you're old and then you're just really smart!

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Snippet from this mornings FFC AFD, 50 miles and a lot of people. Pretty good meteorologically? Nice bar for that profession. Kindof like baseball where batting ..300 is considered pretty good. Boy did I screw up in college, should've picked meteorology and acting.

THE SHARP SOUTHERN EDGE OF

THE SNOWFALL IS ABOUT 50 MILES OR SO NORTH OF WHAT WAS PREDICTED

YESTERDAY. METEOROLOGICALLY SPEAKING...NOT BAD AT ALL BUT OF

COURSE IT JUST HAPPENS TO BE RIGHT ACROSS METRO ATLANTA. WOULD

LIKE TO REITERATE WHAT WE EMPHASIZED YESTERDAY THAT IT IS

IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF EVENTS LIKE THIS

WITH 100 PERCENT ACCURACY.

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No need to get nasty on mets its a tough thing to call and they really didn't do that bad all things considered, I think us weenies tend to err on the high side when we look at these systems because we see the POTENTIAL outcome and start acting as if that is what the outcome would be.....oh well I am a optimist on these storms I see it as nothing to lose and everything to gain so I will take my 1" that is pretty much gone already lol and move on.....gonna end up with 1.5" sleet/ice Tues week, almost 4" this past Tues, and 1" last night so call it 6" for the year which is right at 100% of climo for me.

 

I am much more a severe weather/hurricane guy so bring on spring

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This storm under achieved according to models. For the future which model was most accurate in everyone's opinion.

This answer will vary depending on location. For my location the NAM was closer to reality. GFS was too low. Ended with right at 7 inches. Again, this will vary from locale to locale.

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Well I wound up with 3/4 inch of slop here. It never ceases to amaze me.... every major event in my backyard for the last 20 years has busted on the low side... every single one..... 

 

Even the best event of my 30 year lifetime(January 2011) was a bust. We got 5.75 inches but nws gsp was calling for 9 to 11 here.  

 

 

I actually wound up with more snow from the early week teaser system... what a joke!

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I pretty much nailed the forecast.  Here is just ONE of the things I posted yesterday in the discussion thread.

 

"In my opinion, based on model data, the cold air supply just isn't THAT strong and with this low ticking north every model run since yesterday, Wake is going to be right smack dab in the transition zone.  Northern wake, lots more snow.  Southern Wake near JoCO, more rain mixed in.  "

 

I was getting a lot of heat for it.  I knew how it would go.  I've seen this scenario MANY times over my 31 years in Wake.

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What the hell?! Where's all the snow we were supposed to get?! There's like 2" out here!

Well...We could all move to Boston,but the truth is as much as I love snow. I love N.C. and the diverse weather experiences this state provides more. It's the chase of the storm and the comaraderie in this forum as much as the end result. You guys that took the time to analyze and share your thoughts,Thank You! I had a great time guys. Now where did I put that premergent.

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I think the main issue was that the models treated this storm as if it was in the heart of winter. In reality the storm happened at the tail end of winter, in the Southern US. Common sense tells you not to expect 8 inches w/ borderline temps

No. It was just that the models are trash. The low tracked well to the east of where the models were showing it. Not sure how that affected y'all,but it affected me. If every model shows me jumping up to 70 degrees before an intense squall line comes in, then I am expecting that. Instead that all happened to the south.

Even hilarious that the 0z runs STILL showed it going to the west of here.

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Well...We could all move to Boston,but the truth is as much as I love snow. I love N.C. and the diverse weather experiences this state provides more. It's the chase of the storm and the comaraderie in this forum as much as the end result. You guys that took the time to analyze and share your thoughts,Thank You! I had a great time guys. Now where did I put that premergent.

pack has been stocking it up all winter.
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