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Ellinwood

Feb. 26 Storm DISC+OBS

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So... 1-3" around DC, jackpot RIC->VA Beach?

Including Friday's possible Flurry/-SN activity in here as well.

Nah...  Jack pot will be south east of Richmond.              NE NC up toward the New Port news area.    Richmond will probably see a few hours of heavy snow, but nothing compared to down toward Tidewater area.         

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It seems this system will bring a blend of flurries and "snow showers" to our area.

Unless it wobbles NW, most of us will be in the coating to an inch category.

 

The southern most people in this sub-forum get 0.1 to 0.24.

 

Here are the GFSX (MEX) MOS Graphics:

 

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nice trends overnight

if the models were showing snow over us yesterday and the trend started last night, it would continue today....<fingers crossed>

 

Very nice trends, I want the 12z runs to bring that 0.25 line over DC.

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Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
604 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

...WINTER STORM TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...

.A STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST TODAY WILL SHIFT TO OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY MORNING. AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...SNOW WILL THE MAIN WEATHER TYPE. SOME
RAIN WILL BE MIXED IN EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS...EAST TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...BEFORE CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WINTER STORM WILL EXIT BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ015>017-032-251915-
/O.CON.KRNK.WS.W.0004.150226T0000Z-150226T1400Z/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-PATRICK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
DANBURY...BOONE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...INDEPENDENCE...
WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...STUART
604 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...NORTH TO
ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM MOUNT ROGERS TO
STUART VIRGINIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 7 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF AFTER DAWN THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS CAN BE EXPECTED...AND THIS SNOW
WILL BE WET...AND HARDER TO TRAVEL ON.

* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING IN THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OR ANY DAMAGE
CAUSED BY THE SNOW TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA EMAIL AT
[email protected] OR AT PHONE NUMBER 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...
4 3 2 4.FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB
AT HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOVOR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

YOU ARE ALSO WELCOME TO POST REPORTS ON OUR FACEBOOK OR TWITTER
PAGES.

&&

$

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I don't see any need to rush. They can wait until after the 12Z suite. 

WWA's going to be moved further north at some point? Something needs to be issued soon I would think.

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Let's work some magic and get that 0.5" line to IAD.

Do you think there's even a chance for that?

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Finally!.. The northward trend.

Can this be explained by any teleconnections or upper air patterns, or is just it a coincidence this has been the trend all season?

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Can this be explained by any teleconnections or upper air patterns, or is just it a coincidence this has been the trend all season?

or maybe a new model going its own ways :lol:

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It seems this system will bring a blend of flurries and "snow showers" to our area.

Unless it wobbles NW, most of us will be in the coating to an inch category.

 

The southern most people in this sub-forum get 0.1 to 0.24.

 

Here are the GFSX (MEX) MOS Graphics:

 

attachicon.gifMEX.BQPF12.001.gif

Most of us meaning those who live in Baltimore on north?

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WWA's going to be moved further north at some point? Something needs to be issued soon I would think.

 

Yeah with the 1" criteria during the morning commute, I would assume they would be issued during the afternoon update

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WWA's going to be moved further north at some point? Something needs to be issued soon I would think.

 

At some point I would not be surprised, though I don't know how "soon" is necessary.  Regardless, since the snow will be starting pre-dawn tomorrow and it will be rush hour, it seems very likely that an advisory would go up just for that even if only a light amount of snow falls in the end.  Would not be surprised at delays and the like either.

 

(ETA:  Ninja'd by Shane, above!)

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At some point I would not be surprised, though I don't know how "soon" is necessary.  Regardless, since the snow will be starting pre-dawn tomorrow and it will be rush hour, it seems very likely that an advisory would go up just for that even if only a light amount of snow falls in the end.  Would not be surprised at delays and the like either.

 

(ETA:  Ninja'd by Shane, above!)

:ph34r:

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Hearing from the SE Forum that the low might be further south than expected. RAP and HRRR don't look that encouraging. Maybe an over performer in the works for ATL and Upstate SC. DC might get an inch

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