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nrgjeff

Winter Storm Feb 25 and 26

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18Z NAM is a hair south with the axis of heaviest snow...still greater than 0.5" liquid in Chatt...still waiting for boundary layer to saturate before the flakes come down but that is life on the northern edge...I am not sure what is up with that run of the HRRR but it is not a classic style dry slot....

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19z RAP:

 

VP6IdBe.gif

 

19Z RAP also gifts us with .25" of freezing rain, at least at TYS?... please no more of that.

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So, I am assuming that MRX is disregarding the 18z NAM, the last few runs of the RAP, the Euro, to some extent the UKI...and they must be riding with the GFS/HRRR.  Yesterday morning, we had dozens of cars stranded in Kingsport because the NWS didn't alert anyone to the snow impacts until it was too late and many had already gone to bed by the time the advisories were issued.  They better get this one right.

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18z NAM:

 

LzfvYwQ.gif

 

Normally, I take out the pic for comments.  However, again I want to point something out.  W NC has really filled-in w/ significant snow.  That is a trend I want to see if in NE TN.  The HRRR is beginning to get juicier.  So, all positive trends in hitting or surpassing snow totals by the NWS.

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18z NAM virtually erases any trace of a shadow in the NE Valley. 

 

Meanwhile, we can kiss Charlotte and Raleigh goodbye...

Yeah, definitely comforting to see that feature gone.

 

NAM, RAP,  and HRRR look to be in agreement. 3-6 inches seems like a good bet at this point which is more than the 2-4" advisory indicates.

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Need an obs thread for this event.  I think the folks in the southern end of the Valley should start it.  Be sure to tag it.

I am southern but way too junior in my weather knowledge to start a thread. How about someone from Chattanooga?

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MRX just not impressed with these totals for the central valley, my forecast is down to 1-3 lol.

Yeah my point forecast says the same thing while under a WSW at my location.  Zones don't say that.  Zones have Knox area 2-4 still, and Chatt area 3-6 still.

 

I think I remember someone saying the point forecast are computer generated.  Zone forecasts are not.

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I just look at last year's February storm and wonder, it was further south and weaker but a trowel extended up into East Tennessee so we got bombed. How similar is this one to that one? Looks quite similar to me.

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I'm sitting under 20 dbz returns nothing falling from the sky, but temp has dropped from 38 to 35, and dew point has risen from 23 to 25, humidity up to 65% from 57% all over the last hour.  Effects of saturation are under way.

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