Reb Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Jeff, has it started to fall there yet or just virga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Jeff, has it started to fall there yet or just virga? Just virga here in Chatt right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 18Z NAM is a hair south with the axis of heaviest snow...still greater than 0.5" liquid in Chatt...still waiting for boundary layer to saturate before the flakes come down but that is life on the northern edge...I am not sure what is up with that run of the HRRR but it is not a classic style dry slot.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 19z RAP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 19z HRRR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 From MRX. Seems about right for the southern Valley and underdone on the northern. Time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 First flakes here in Madison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Has anyone posted the 18z NAM? Seems pretty robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 First flakes here in Madison. Thats good to hear! As the crow flys you are what about 20 miles south of the TN line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 18z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocop Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 19z RAP: 19Z RAP also gifts us with .25" of freezing rain, at least at TYS?... please no more of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 So, I am assuming that MRX is disregarding the 18z NAM, the last few runs of the RAP, the Euro, to some extent the UKI...and they must be riding with the GFS/HRRR. Yesterday morning, we had dozens of cars stranded in Kingsport because the NWS didn't alert anyone to the snow impacts until it was too late and many had already gone to bed by the time the advisories were issued. They better get this one right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 18z NAM virtually erases any trace of a shadow in the NE Valley. Meanwhile, we can kiss Charlotte and Raleigh goodbye... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 19Z RAP also gifts us with .25" of freezing rain, at least at TYS?... please no more of that. Where do you see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 18z NAM: Normally, I take out the pic for comments. However, again I want to point something out. W NC has really filled-in w/ significant snow. That is a trend I want to see if in NE TN. The HRRR is beginning to get juicier. So, all positive trends in hitting or surpassing snow totals by the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Need an obs thread for this event. I think the folks in the southern end of the Valley should start it. Be sure to tag it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Any obs from the plateau? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Look at the 18Z High Resolution NAM... Backs up Jeff's totals pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 18z NAM virtually erases any trace of a shadow in the NE Valley. Meanwhile, we can kiss Charlotte and Raleigh goodbye... Yeah, definitely comforting to see that feature gone. NAM, RAP, and HRRR look to be in agreement. 3-6 inches seems like a good bet at this point which is more than the 2-4" advisory indicates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocop Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Where do you see that? ISU meteogram generator, but looking a little closer the snow totals don't seem to jibe with the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 ISU meteogram generator, but looking a little closer the snow totals don't seem to jibe with the map. By golly you're right, that is weird. I seriously doubt we get any zr out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Need an obs thread for this event. I think the folks in the southern end of the Valley should start it. Be sure to tag it. I am southern but way too junior in my weather knowledge to start a thread. How about someone from Chattanooga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 MRX just not impressed with these totals for the central valley, my forecast is down to 1-3 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 MRX just not impressed with these totals for the central valley, my forecast is down to 1-3 lol. Yeah my point forecast says the same thing while under a WSW at my location. Zones don't say that. Zones have Knox area 2-4 still, and Chatt area 3-6 still. I think I remember someone saying the point forecast are computer generated. Zone forecasts are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm in south Monroe, still just virga here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I just look at last year's February storm and wonder, it was further south and weaker but a trowel extended up into East Tennessee so we got bombed. How similar is this one to that one? Looks quite similar to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The low is just SE of New Orleans and strengthening rapidly. It's dropped about 6 mb in the last 6 hours. It should fall under 1000 soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm sitting under 20 dbz returns nothing falling from the sky, but temp has dropped from 38 to 35, and dew point has risen from 23 to 25, humidity up to 65% from 57% all over the last hour. Effects of saturation are under way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Chattanooga surely is starting to get precip, if not yet soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 20z RAP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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