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March Threats/Snow Storms Pt. II


mitchnick

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Damn.  Guess I better put my AmWx spring and summer hibernation plans on hold. ;)   I know its long range, but we know March can produce (with lots of luck). I'm all in for anything that gives us 1 more shot.  Had too much fun yesterday to not want that just 1 more time.  How great would it be if we finally got our ever elusive -NAO to boot?

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Regional models have difficulty maintaining the largest scales/longest wavelengths (think continental scale and beyond even) when they are allowed to cycle on their own states.  The NAM, RAP, and HRRR all use some form of partial cycling for this very reason.  It also helps with satellite radiance assimilation, which requires bias correction, which requires large (global) samples of data to do correctly/consistently.

 

Thanks again.

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I don't think anyone is taking that seriously or at least I hope not. Potential seems to be there, but we need it at night or -20 daytime departures.

I'm only interested in the lw pattern being advertised on the ensembles. If we're going to repeat second half of march snow, the ensemble look is one that leaves the possibility open. Even during solid climo we waste good patterns more often than not

On a fun note....18z gfs drops 3-6" d9-10. Almost in range. :P

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I'm only interested in the lw pattern being advertised. If we're going to repeat second half of march snow, the ensemble look is one that leaves the possibility open. Even during solid climo we waste good patterns more often than not

On a fun note....18z gfs drops 3-6" d9-10. Almost in range. :P

We scoff at 3-6" around here.

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I'm only interested in the lw pattern being advertised on the ensembles. If we're going to repeat second half of march snow, the ensemble look is one that leaves the possibility open. Even during solid climo we waste good patterns more often than not

On a fun note....18z gfs drops 3-6" d9-10. Almost in range. :P

 

Staying up for the Euro tonight? ;)

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The 3" on March 25th (overnight) 2013 was the highest of the season for me. It's the system that "turned the tide" for sucky winters here in the D.C. area. March hasn't been the same since :)

 

4.8" here... my only WSW criteria total that season 

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It's important that people tell us how difficult it is for it to snow in mid to late March...I'm not sure but we will need really big departures plus it needs to snow at night and we will need rates and oh yeah luck...lots of luck...it's gonna be late March after all ;)

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It's important that people tell us how difficult it is for it to snow in mid to late March...I'm not sure but we will need really big departures plus it needs to snow at night and we will need rates and oh yeah luck...lots of luck...it's gonna be late March after all ;)

32F in late March is not the same as 32F in January. Also snow cover in Turkey is decreasing

tumblr_mz65seM0Sj1r0b2hgo4_250.gif

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It's important that people tell us how difficult it is for it to snow in mid to late March...I'm not sure but we will need really big departures plus it needs to snow at night and we will need rates and oh yeah luck...lots of luck...it's gonna be late March after all ;)

Yawn.
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We had a good snow last year on the 17th, the year before on the 18th and 25th. If we get more, it's not a surprise.

who said it would be a surprise? spin spin spin. plenty of talk about big potential, return of the miller A in -nao to go out with a bang etc.. it's d10 and beyond lol. worst thing ever is someone to say that. unfettered snow cheerleading.

 

INGWjkj.jpg

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