March Threats/Snow Storms Pt. II

[mitchnick]

Huh???

Here is how I remember the last few threats of the last two weeks.

Super front threat feb 14: the miller b ended up about where it was forecasted from 5 days out. The weird inverted trough feature actually trended way south and ended up over nj vs nyc and ct. So did the best lift with the front. Verdict no north trend. Perhaps south trend with trough feature

The feb 17 storm was well north and looked like several waves going north of us from 120 hours out. Then it shifted way south as models resolved the two wave idea before coming back north around 48 hours out only to adjust south about 50 miles at the end. Verdict: all over but definitely not an overall north trend as storm ended up way south of where it was from a week out.

Feb 21. Started as a low cutting way north I still have an image from 5 days out showing rain to buffalo with that. We were supposed to be 50 and rain. It trended way south as models weakened the low.

Feb 26. From 5 days out gfs and euro had a few runs that were a nice hit up the coast. Even a few that changed us to rain. Then around day 3-4 they shifted way south only to come back north some the last 48 hours. Verdict still ended south of the consensus 5 days out.

March 1. Not over yet but it's definitely been trending south the last 24 hours.

Is my memory going bad because that's honestly how I remember each event and from that I can't see how you can argue there has been an overall north trend in this pattern. I kind of side with ji here. The last few times I've needed the mythical north trend Iys let me down.

 

 

I think your memory is a bit wonky, my friend. I can count at least three events this winter that trended south, within what we might call the believable range.

If you're talking about trends out beyond 5 days, that's something else. I don't look at that stuff much..

do you two forget the storms that were aimed at us in JAN 3-5 days before that trended north and hit Boston? one of them was a playoff game on a Sunday?

how about Friday's storm the models originally gave us nothing and there was another storm before that one too?

I tell you what I'm going to do. I will go back and research the threads and then we won't have to rely on our memories, but I can't do it until later tonight or tomorrow.

[psuhoffman]

do you two forget the storms that were aimed at us in JAN 3-5 days before that trended north and hit Boston? one of them was a playoff game on a Sunday?

how about Friday's storm the models originally gave us nothing and there was another storm before that one too?

I tell you what I'm going to do. I will go back and research the threads and then we won't have to rely on our memories, but I can't do it until later tonight or tomorrow.

There were a few storms in January that trended north. Also some that trended south, in some cases so south the storm hit squashed to nothing. But yes in January there was a period that you could argue had a north trend. You said the last few weeks in your last post so that was the period I was looking at. Also it depends when you start looking as a baseline for the trend. If you use 120 hours the thursday storm was south. If you start at 48 hours then it was north. Those things make a difference.

[mitchnick]

do you two forget the storms that were aimed at us in JAN 3-5 days before that trended north and hit Boston? one of them was a playoff game on a Sunday?

how about Friday's storm the models originally gave us nothing and there was another storm before that one too?

I tell you what I'm going to do. I will go back and research the threads and then we won't have to rely on our memories, but I can't do it until later tonight or tomorrow.

One other thing. I suspect part of the problem is the time frame BEFORE the event actually hit you two are discussing.

I am talking 3-5 days out. Of course there were wobbles in the models <24 hours before ALL the events, some north and some south; that happens in EVERY STORM EVERY YEAR because the computers are not that good. But we'll see once I get a chance to locate what I am remembering.

[mitchnick]

There were a few storms in January that trended north. Also some that trended south, in some cases so south the storm hit squashed to nothing. But yes in January there was a period that you could argue had a north trend. You said the last few weeks in your last post so that was the period I was looking at. Also it depends when you start looking as a baseline for the trend. If you use 120 hours the thursday storm was south. If you start at 48 hours then it was north. Those things make a difference.

 

 

One other thing. I suspect part of the problem is the time frame BEFORE the event actually hit you two are discussing.

I am talking 3-5 days out. Of course there were wobbles in the models <24 hours before ALL the events, some north and some south; that happens in EVERY STORM EVERY YEAR because the computers are not that good. But we'll see once I get a chance to locate what I am remembering.

so I guess we're on the same page then 

[psuhoffman]

so I guess we're on the same page then

Yea we are. I think there has been a south trend from 5 days out. From 1-3 days it's been more mixed.

[eurojosh]

then you're not a very good student of climatology my friend

if you go back you will see that just about every event we've had of consequence in the last 2 weeks was first modeled to our south, and every event that hit Boston was first modeled to hit us hard

JI is a whiner and gets more jollies off computer runs than falling snow....fine, if that's what he wants to do, but to deny historical fact that can easily be researched on this Board is absurd

 

Aren't we beginning to confuse computer models with reality?  The storms didn't trend south or north, the model predictions did.  Those don't reflect climatology, they reflect incorrect algorithms based off the strength of LPs or HPs out West/North, and various (multiple) other complicating factors. 

[mitchnick]

Aren't we beginning to confuse computer models with reality?  The storms didn't trend south or north, the model predictions did.  Those don't reflect climatology, they reflect incorrect algorithms based off the strength of LPs or HPs out West/North, and various (multiple) other complicating factors. 

no, I am talking about model progs vs. verification and I believe psuhoffman is as well

[WinterWxLuvr]

Huh???

Here is how I remember the last few threats of the last two weeks.

Super front threat feb 14: the miller b ended up about where it was forecasted from 5 days out. The weird inverted trough feature actually trended way south and ended up over nj vs nyc and ct. So did the best lift with the front. Verdict no north trend. Perhaps south trend with trough feature

The feb 17 storm was well north and looked like several waves going north of us from 120 hours out. Then it shifted way south as models resolved the two wave idea before coming back north around 48 hours out only to adjust south about 50 miles at the end. Verdict: all over but definitely not an overall north trend as storm ended up way south of where it was from a week out.

Feb 21. Started as a low cutting way north I still have an image from 5 days out showing rain to buffalo with that. We were supposed to be 50 and rain. It trended way south as models weakened the low.

Feb 26. From 5 days out gfs and euro had a few runs that were a nice hit up the coast. Even a few that changed us to rain. Then around day 3-4 they shifted way south only to come back north some the last 48 hours. Verdict still ended south of the consensus 5 days out.

March 1. Not over yet but it's definitely been trending south the last 24 hours.

Is my memory going bad because that's honestly how I remember each event and from that I can't see how you can argue there has been an overall north trend in this pattern. I kind of side with ji here. The last few times I've needed the mythical north trend Iys let me down.

Not to argue your point, but on the Feb 21 storm, the Euro had mega snows in Tennessee modeled at about 4-5 days out.

[Ian]

People have such selective memories on 'trends'

[WinterWxLuvr]

People have such selective memories on 'trends'

I think you're right. Generally my memory, which is laughable at times, says the northern stream systems have come south, the strong cutters have weakened and been flat, and the little southern stream we've had has come a little north at game time.

[CAPE]

People have such selective memories on 'trends'

Its just silliness. I think tomorrow is a non event/underperformer unless you live in Manchester. I do like this anafront snow threat for late week tho. Allthough at this juncture we just cannot know what the outcome may be.

[Ian]

I think you're right. Generally my memory, which is laughable at times, says the northern stream systems have come south, the strong cutters have weakened and been flat, and the little southern stream we've had has come a little north at game time.

Seems about right to me. Definitely not all north trends that's for sure. We got snow out of several south/de amplifying trenders.

[CAPE]

I think you're right. Generally my memory, which is laughable at times, says the northern stream systems have come south, the strong cutters have weakened and been flat, and the little southern stream we've had has come a little north at game time.

Good post. That generally sums it up for much of this winter. Tomorow could be a decent frozen to freezing rain deal for the usual places NW. Even that did not look likely 2 days ago.

[Amped]

Well it's not a pretty setup on the GFS day 4-5, but it somehow gets the job done. Seems like we have had a number of these the last two years, before that we couldn't buy a 4-8" setup.

[Amped]

People have such selective memories on 'trends'

February 3rd last year trended north. That was a similar anafront setup so I think if you're going to have a selective memory that is a decent event to select.

[WinterWxLuvr]

February 3rd last year trended north. That was a similar anafront setup so I think if you're going to have a selective memory that is a decent event to select.

What was the end result? I can't remember that one.

[Fozz]

February 3rd last year trended north. That was a similar anafront setup so I think if you're going to have a selective memory that is a decent event to select.

Awful... my area ended up with mostly rain followed by a sloppy inch, while the M/D line maybe 20 miles away was pasted with 5-10". Nasty bust/screwjob in an otherwise great winter.

[kurtstack]

GFS continues to show that juicy overrunning wave along the frontal boundary for us Thursday.  Many seem skeptical about this system, but several models have been showing this evolution for the past few days, so it will be interesting to see if we can squeeze out a small or even moderate snow event with that setup.

[Amped]

Awful... my area ended up with mostly rain followed by a sloppy inch, while the M/D line maybe 20 miles away was pasted with 5-10". Nasty bust/screwjob in an otherwise great winter.

Those type of coldfronts take way longer than expected to get over the mountains.If you see a high pushing in from the northwest and there is not a low bombing off shore, you can be rest assured models will be 12hrs too fast with the coldfront on a 24hr forecast.  Not something my selective memory forgets.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Those type of coldfronts take way longer than expected to get over the mountains.If you see a high pushing in from the northwest and there is not a low bombing off shore, you can be rest assured models will be 12hrs too fast with the coldfront on a 24hr forecast. Not something my selective memory forgets.

My thoughts exactly when I made the comment earlier to Ji about the snowfall stripe.

[Jebman]

March 2015 will be better than March 2014. This is NO debbie downer winter.

I may just end up ABOVE climo for snow

And, stormtracker! It's about G.D. TIME you finally got rid of that debbie downer sig!

[stormtracker]

Well, after being consistent, GFS loses our anafront snow (actually just pushes it south now)

[Amped]

GFS never ejects the S/W from the southwest. The northen stream in Wyoming was further southwest on 12z which might have helped push it out.   I'm sure it will be uncanceled and recanceled at least 4 more times.

[Deck Pic]

Euro is a solid 6" for DC on Wednesday night

[stormtracker]

Euro is a solid 6" for DC on Wednesday night

Well damn.   GFS bails and then Euro comes to the party.

[AvantHiatus]

Euro is a solid 6" for DC on Wednesday night

Got any snowmaps tho? Must be insane east of the bay.

[Joe Vanni]

The 00z GGEM also looks like the older GFS runs. Easily the best run of the GGEM so far for the Wednesday night/Thursday event.

[mdsnowlover]

Euro is a solid 6" for DC on Wednesday night

judging by the snow map its more than 6in

[CAPE]

judging by the snow map its more than 6in

Looks like maybe 9" for DC, 12" for some places on the Delmarva. Not that it really means anything at this point. I can tell you just about anytime the Euro has had huge digital snow totals at this lead time this winter, has not verified here.

[Heisy]

The models trended on leaving more energy in the southwest, which would kind of suck if we wanted a secondary low to form on the boundary. We'll see