CarlislePaWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 CTL's lates discuss from 6:39 said warm air isn't exciting the LSV and they don't expect snow until 06z Thursday. Said they'll have to lower totals. That makes no sense. My point and click this morning said that the precip would not be all snow until 06Z. There's been no change in the expected timing. They had the mix beginning at 03Z, which is in about a half hour. I think they are going to overreact to the reductions and then bust low. They have me as 1 to 3 overnight with 2 to 4 tomorrow. That's a range of 3-7" which sounds reasonable. This see-sawing back and forth with accumulations is making me nauseous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I wanna feel good PSU lol, but no bulge of precip. coming north to us. Hey, this might be the last shot - regardless of what happens, I'm excited for 40s and ample sun next week with the +1hr daylight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Just when it looked liked the SREF was converging on a solution between 5"-6" on the 15Z The 21z comes along and the spreads widen and total jumps to 8.5" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Downgraded to WWA for Dauphin, Cumberland, Perry and Lebanon Counties. 3-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 That makes no sense. My point and click this morning said that the precip would not be all snow until 06Z. There's been no change in the expected timing. They had the mix beginning at 03Z, which is in about a half hour. I think they are going to overreact to the reductions and then bust low. They have me as 1 to 3 overnight with 2 to 4 tomorrow. That's a range of 3-7" which sounds reasonable. This see-sawing back and forth with accumulations is making me nauseous. Yup! No wonder the general public gets confused. Storm didnt begin and they change accum 3 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Oh they did cancel the WSW after all. Go figure. WHTM for the win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 New map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Just when it looked liked the SREF was converging on a solution between 5"-6" on the 15Z The 21z comes along and the spreads widen and total jumps to 8.5" Sent from my iPhone You have the same map for both timeframes. Can you post the 21Z map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 You have the same map for both timeframes. Can you post the 21Z map? My bad Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 My bad Sent from my iPhone That's an enormous spread considering we are essentially 18 hours from this storm being DONE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Downgraded to WWA for Dauphin, Cumberland, Perry and Lebanon Counties. 3-5 inches. Well...doesn't that present an interesting dilemma? What is going to happen when everyone around here is closing in on 6" and the storm still has hours to go? Has anyone ever seen a WSW downgrade followed by a WSW upgrade? I wonder if they are even allowed to make a third change to the warnings? So, the NAM bumps us back up and the SREF's increase the mean by 50%. Hold on to your seats folks, it's gonna be a bumpy ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 about a 70/30 rain sleet mix here... temp 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 starting to hear some pingers in hershey....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 about a 70/30 rain sleet mix here... temp 35 Same for me here, djr, and right on schedule. Temp here is 36.0 and falling slowly. I'll bet we're over to all snow by midnight. BTW...how much rain did you guys get today? My gauge is reporting 0.29" since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Sleet's started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Oh they did cancel the WSW after all. Go figure. WHTM for the win? CTP must be going for their record of the number of forecasts for 1 event before it even starts. During The last 2 events over the last 2 weekends they must have changed the snow amounts 10 times. I wish for just 1 time, they would make a forecast and stick with it until the event at least gets underway. All of the guidance today has done nothing but ramp up amounts, so I have no idea why they downgraded at this time. I have no idea what ABC-27 is basing their forecast on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Sleet in Marysville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 That's an enormous spread considering we are essentially 18 hours from this storm being DONE It seems likely that tomorrow will be a rough day for many meteorologists out there as there will probably be many busts hi and low with this system. AllWeather, How have the HRRR & RAP preformed out near Kentucky today? The last few runs they have been consistently showing nice snow amount in Harrisburg Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Been snowing here for hours but just not heavy enough to do anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 It seems likely that tomorrow will be a rough day for many meteorologists out there as there will probably be many busts hi and low with this system. AllWeather, How have the HRRR & RAP preformed out near Kentucky today? The last few runs they have been consistently showing nice snow amount in Harrisburg Sent from my iPhone That's a good question that I don't know the answer to. Haven't been putting my view in that area all day, so I couldn't say. Should be honing in now, so I would imagine what you see till tomorrow AM is pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 And now the view from the peanut gallery: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 What a bunch of morons. Scheisskopf und Scheisskopf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 DT should trademark the hell out of the *** NONSENSE ***. These tards look like even bigger ***holes than they are in real life when they try to be DT. At least DT knows what he's talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Been snowing here for hours but just not heavy enough to do anything. Steady light snow here, same deal so far.. not much accumulation. Bit of a dusting on the cars and probably on the snow. It seems likely that tomorrow will be a rough day for many meteorologists out there as there will probably be many busts hi and low with this system. AllWeather, How have the HRRR & RAP preformed out near Kentucky today? The last few runs they have been consistently showing nice snow amount in Harrisburg Sent from my iPhone My uncle in Paducah, KY is getting hammered pretty good as forecasted.. looking at a 6-10" snowfall. He had 10"+ from the 2-16/17 storm, which I'm beginning to wonder if this storm ends up being similar to how that one played out...where we see the max amounts in the Ohio Valley/KY in particular and decent amounts but not widespread snowbomb amounts east of the Apps. I've had 1 storm this year that took about 30 hours to get over 6" and he's going to get two in the same season where a 6"+ storm is more of a once every few years type ordeal. KY I-24 Exit 4 http://511.ky.gov/kylb/cameras/routeselect.jsf?textOnly=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 i would say almost all pingers and a few flakes mixed in in hershey.... coming down good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Gfs took a big step to the Euro. That S&S map might be pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Pouring sleet here... temp 34 and ever so slowly falling... edit: about 80% sleet, 10% rain, 10% massive snowflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Virtually over to all sleet now with the first wet flakes beginning to come down as well. Looks like my prediction of going over to all snow before midnight will come true. Temp down to 35.6. Let the games begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 0z Nam, Rgem and now Gfs all continue to ramp up amounts for the LSV. Good agreement so far at 0z tonight with the 3 models showing near 6 inches around Harrisburg to closer to 8 inches in York and Lancaster. Radar looks great with precip all the way back to deep in the heart of Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 So does Abc27 stick with there coating-3" call from the MD border north at 11? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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