Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Dude it's half and half here already. Not really seeing how we get out of this without some nasty conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12z Euro Ensemble mean and control run look great for the LSV. Both have between 7 and 9 inches across the LSV, with MDT near 8. Here is a breakdown of the 50 individual ensemble members for the LSV. 10 members have Less than 6 inches( all of these are over 3 inches though) 34 members have 6 inches or more. 6 members hammer us with around 10 inches or more. In summary, 80% of the members deliver a 6 inch + snow storm to the LSV! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm certainly mindful of these frontal boundary setups where the fronts pressing south as AllWeather alluded to. I said last night that I'd rather be watching this evolve from our region than from the DC area. One factor is these waves are pretty close to each other, precip might never really end during the day tomorrow in some places in between events.. so the close proximity might hang up the front a bit more. On the other hand, this doesn't look like a frontal passage with marginal cold behind it. This will have arctic cold pressing down into this moisture, which will serve to make this a snow bomb in a narrow corridor. Also could make for a sharper cutoff of precip on the northern side as well. As for a rough guess on amounts attm, I do think roughly the route 22 corridor and south (and then from I-81 southeast in eastern Penn) looks pretty decent for generally a 4-8" type deal, with 2-5" N and NW of that (west of I-81 in eastern Penn). A narrow corridor in the southern tier depending on where the best QPF ends up could have a 10-12" swath. Another thing that might need considered as the event progresses is ratios, as the arctic air presses south. Could make folks with more moderate QPF (e.g. that corridor between the turnpike and 80) end up with pretty big amounts as well. Gonna be interesting haha. Thanks Mag. Yeah, these events always have me on edge, but I think the airmass in general is one that makes me have less pause. I think ratios will be low for the few hours after the changeover, but get better into the early morning hours as the mid levels start to cool and create better conditions for overall snow growth. The thing that is really impressive to me is the deep moist layer in the sounding profiles. Basically saturated all the way up around 500mb. I love to see that signal in the soundings if you want a good, substantial snowfall. Bufkit places a good period of snow growth for the southern tier per the NAM and judging by the Euro output, I could see the same situation. Now, lets take a look at the new 18z GFS. First thing I noticed, the model is really cold. It's still pushing the 850 line south the fastest, and now it dries out the northern edge crazily. I'm not saying the model is incorrect by any means (knowing the luck for the southern tier this year, watch it be right lol), but looking at the upper level depiction and the 850-700mb layer, I would feel there would be a good swath of snow still located in the LSV and MD/PA line. Instead it shows a brutal cutoff, which is what Allweather brought up beforehand. Until other models show the cutoff of the main precip shield that far south, I'm still skeptical, which is why as excited as I am, I'm still weary that something will find a way to go wrong. It can never be easy can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 small pingers here in Ephrata. Would love for the cold to hold and less rain/zr. That just makes a mess of stuff. Nice afternoon getting caught up on emails and catching the 18z coming in. Hoping for a nudge north for a CTP/LSV special. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 CTP updated map for the snow part of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 roads here are bad. 81 was down to 25 in spots. Traffic was heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Thanks for all the updates. I was at the Eden Resort in Lancaster today. Lots of sleet when I left around 3:30. Route 30 was getting slick but didn't run into problems making my way home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Up to 31. Hope it warms up soon. Ice really accumulating on trees and power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 22.2 sleet frz rain mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 still holding the temp at 28 with a few heavy rounds of sleet and ice. The roads arent terrible but definitely gotta take it easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 this cold air coming in thursday means business. Thurs high 19 and Fri morning 0 in my area. Winters hangin on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 " " Now, lets take a look at the new 18z GFS. First thing I noticed, the model is really cold. It's still pushing the 850 line south the fastest, and now it dries out the northern edge crazily. I'm not saying the model is incorrect by any means (knowing the luck for the southern tier this year, watch it be right lol), but looking at the upper level depiction and the 850-700mb layer, I would feel there would be a good swath of snow still located in the LSV and MD/PA line. Instead it shows a brutal cutoff, which is what Allweather brought up beforehand. Until other models show the cutoff of the main precip shield that far south, I'm still skeptical, which is why as excited as I am, I'm still weary that something will find a way to go wrong. It can never be easy can it? I dunno what to think of the GFS op, the GFS ensemble mean has been consistently more bullish than the op.. and actually more in line the Euros ensemble mean (which has also been better than that op). The combination of both extremes might come to fruition here, like say above I-80 sees like T-2 while the turnpike sees 10+. I agree about the moisture, just a tremendous fetch from the Gulf of Mexico ( and beyond).. this is the kind of setup where ridiculous NAM like numbers can be a bit closer to reality haha. I'll be interested to see what ends up happening upstream as well.. this is yet another setup that is poised to hammer the nearly entire state of Kentucky with a heavy snowfall. My uncle in Paducah, KY had over 10" from that last one that was around Presidents day and is looking at nearly the same with this one. Pretty unusual for that area to see one storm that big in any given winter much less two. Anyways, that last big storm translated to a fringe job for most except for the southern tier. Bit of a different scenario with this one, way more moisture available and the boundary should be a bit north. But i'll be testing that connection again, I don't often see big snows if my uncle gets one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z Hi-res NAM delivers 8-9 inches in Harrisburg area and 10-12 to Lancaster and York. Meanwhile, things are getting nasty out as sleet continues in Marysville. Side roads and sidewalk are sheet of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Up to 31. Hope it warms up soon. Ice really accumulating on trees and power lines. Still primarily sleet down here and 27ºF, theres been some ZR and a light glaze but nothing notable on the trees yet. CTP mentioned in disco about possibly needing to upgrade more central counties and I feel like that's probably going to happen.. precip looks pretty solid for awhile and we'll probably maintain light freezing and/or regular rain when precip does break up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Can see a nice glaze on the tree next to my security light, this mist has been accumulating ice very well. When are these winds supposed to die down, we are easily gusting to 30 with the sleet and frz rain mix. Temp 22.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Sleeting like crazy fir the past 20 mins, was zr before. Downtown sidewalks were iiiiicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I honestly didn't expect this,I really thought we'd warm up much quicker and be plain ole rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I honestly didn't expect this,I really thought we'd warm up much quicker and be plain ole rain. I had similar thoughts earlier after the snow failed to materialize and we were approaching 30 degrees. Temps have dropped from earlier and we're sitting at 26 right now in Lemoyne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looks like some of us will be getting our first BIG snowstorm in March. Models seem to be fairly well in agreement. Currently sleet with temp @ 22 degrees Enjoy your storm!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looks like some of us will be getting our first BIG snowstorm in March. Models seem to be fairly well in agreement. Currently sleet with temp @ 22 degrees Enjoy your storm!!! Have you been out in it yet pawatch? Weird mist coming down in between sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 All freezing rain here now, coming down light to moderate.. still around 28ºF. I've been reporting p-types on that mPing app pretty regularly with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 MAG you think they extend the Warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 All freezing rain here now, coming down light to moderate.. still around 28ºF. I've been reporting p-types on that mPing app pretty regularly with this event. Up to 32.5 now. Did you see this? BASED ON ASOS ICE ACCRETIONS THRU 23Z AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...CONFIDENCE IN WARNING TYPE ICE ACCUMS ACROSS THE N MTNS IS WANING. ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...KJST ALREADY REPORTED 0.36 INCHES OF ICE ACCRETION THRU 23Z...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN UNDERWAY WITH TEMP AT 32F. WILL LET THE CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES RIDE FOR NOW...BUT WILL LKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING. This was also from the discussion. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Up to 32.7 now. Did you see this? BASED ON ASOS ICE ACCRETIONS THRU 23Z AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...CONFIDENCE IN WARNING TYPE ICE ACCUMS ACROSS THE N MTNS IS WANING. ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...KJST ALREADY REPORTED 0.36 INCHES OF ICE ACCRETION THRU 23Z...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN UNDERWAY WITH TEMP AT 32F. WILL LET THE CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES RIDE FOR NOW...BUT WILL LKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING. This was also from the discussion. Pretty impressive. I just saw that haha, I was getting ready to quote it for wsptwx. I guess they're not going to upgrade...That's a pretty sizable ice accumulation at JST and they were in their 0.01-0.1" zone by the skin of their teeth. Rough guesstimate is I have about a tenth of ice. For IPT area I would expect at least near warning levels of ice whether they upgrade it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I just saw that haha, I was getting ready to quote it for wsptwx. I guess they're not going to upgrade...That's a pretty sizable ice accumulation at JST and they were in their 0.01-0.1" zone by the skin of their teeth. Rough guesstimate is I have about a tenth of ice. For IPT area I would expect at least near warning levels of ice whether they upgrade it or not. I guess based on rough estimates here would be two tenths or maybe a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Have you been out in it yet pawatch? Weird mist coming down in between sleet. Yes I was...one time it appeared there was some snow mixed in. Just a good night not to venture out on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Lightening up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yea, turning into more of a mist light rain/sleet pellets now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Bernie Rayno stated in his last video that he believes the Wed night Thurs storm is gonna trend south because of the low level cold air and the positively tilted trough. He thinks the bullseye zone is M/D line south with Balt DC Kentucky WVA NVA in the 6-12 zone. He thinks Philly could sneak in with 6 but everyone north is 1-3". Hes been pretty much on the money this winter. I hope hes wrong this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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