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Central PA & The Fringes - Early March 2015


MAG5035

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I'm intrigued with this system and it may the best storm of the season for parts of the forum, especially the SE. Guidance seems to be honed in, as you would expect now that the energy is being sampled. Still some wobbles to go, but those in the Mid-Atl forum may want to be leery about the cold air progressing south. They may have the best rates, but could waste it on garbage before the true cold air arrives. I've been burned numerous times on a front pressing south with a wave developing on it. It almost always ends up being slower than modeled with the southward progress...but every situation is different so I could be wrong!

Thanks, I appreciate your thoughts. I hope we all get in on this one.

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Looks to be a little slick for the next several hours up your way, but temps continuing to warm should improve conditions this evening/tonight as the warm layer gets thicker and the cold layer smaller.  With the warmer air continuing to surge northward and rainfall rates looking decent over the next few hours, not all will turn to ice so I am not sure .25" will manage to verify but could see trace to .10" occurring for a little bit before melting.  If anything, this will be our mildest night in a while.

 

Thanks, still holding at 21. Roads are really bad as the layer of snow was put down now sleet adding up on top of it. If we can stay under 29 with no sun, I'm thinking decent buildup is possible.

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Wow, 12z GEFS has 0.75"+ of liquid N-Central MD into lower York/Lancaster/Chester counties.  00z will be the last mid-range ensemble runs I will look at, going short term after that.

need another little tick North at go time

 

With this wind, I'm kinda getting stuff around in case. 

good idea, prepare now just in case.

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I'm thinking the LSV down to MD/NoVa are in the slam zone at the moment. I'm with Allweather, this almost seems too good to be true. The setup screams thump of snow, but where of course is the question. Looking at the upper level pattern, I think one thing that solidifies my feeling a warning criteria event is on the intense upper level divergence pattern located right over the area. 150+ knot jet max to our north and the LSV located smack in the right entrance region of such a powerful jet usually helps out. Throw in a large plume of tropical moisture over a fresh arctic airmass pushing south, and you have the recipe to make a strong blitz of snow. I'm interested where the best area of frontogenesis ends up. Seems like The area from Baltimore up to the lower counties of PA will be in the best spot. I'm pretty excited.

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Warning just put up for N. Lycoming county, for up to half an inch of ice.

 

I'm surprised they didn't go with watches in the first place in those counties, WPC guidance had been pretty bullish on >0.25" in north central. I personally think that 0.1-0.25" range they have should be extended down to include the area between Altoona - Mount Union-Bedford. Maybe the cold can hold a bit deeper longer and you can get more sleet.

 

Speaking of which, mainly pingers and some freezing rain mixed in down here with temps around 27-28ºF.

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UKMET dips south, GGEM stays south. I'm all in on today, Wed. Night and Thurs. are gone north of MDT.

 

I just saw this...what? I understand that things have kind of trended south, but that is an extreme thing to say.

 

I thought you would have learned after last year. There was a storm two days out that you proclaimed anyone west of 81 was out. I ended up with a couple inches in Pittsburgh, and I think State College was at like 6 or 8 inches.....

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Sidewalks are rough here with the sleet/ZR. Radar looks solid, with temps at 25/16 and the sun heading down it'll be fun to watch the p-types this evening.

 

CTP's latest map shows a decent advisory event from 80 S. I'd gladly take 3-4 even if the southern tier gets 6+.

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I'm intrigued with this system and it may the best storm of the season for parts of the forum, especially the SE. Guidance seems to be honed in, as you would expect now that the energy is being sampled. Still some wobbles to go, but those in the Mid-Atl forum may want to be leery about the cold air progressing south. They may have the best rates, but could waste it on garbage before the true cold air arrives. I've been burned numerous times on a front pressing south with a wave developing on it. It almost always ends up being slower than modeled with the southward progress...but every situation is different so I could be wrong!

 

I'm thinking the LSV down to MD/NoVa are in the slam zone at the moment. I'm with Allweather, this almost seems too good to be true. The setup screams thump of snow, but where of course is the question. Looking at the upper level pattern, I think one thing that solidifies my feeling a warning criteria event is on the intense upper level divergence pattern located right over the area. 150+ knot jet max to our north and the LSV located smack in the right entrance region of such a powerful jet usually helps out. Throw in a large plume of tropical moisture over a fresh arctic airmass pushing south, and you have the recipe to make a strong blitz of snow. I'm interested where the best area of frontogenesis ends up. Seems like The area from Baltimore up to the lower counties of PA will be in the best spot. I'm pretty excited.

 

Great analysis.... looking forward to this storm.

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