NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 UK dipped south a bit...and I feel a mental dip south coming on for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I dunno, I mean the NAM solution was never on the table realistically anyway. We're most likely going to get fringed again but its better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GEFS mean according to Instanwxmaps 0z 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 LOL Thought that was funny? Check out this puppy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Thought that was funny? Check out this puppy... Is that really the Mean for the GEFS?Nvm thats an individual member. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Is that really the Mean for the GEFS? No, that isnt the mean. That is 1 of 20 members. I posted the mean in the post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 EURO round 1: 18 - 0.01-0.1 for all, no temp issues 21 - 0.1-0.25 UNV North, then NE along 81, 850s cutting through UNV 24 - 0.1-0.25 all except around PA/MD border w/ 0.25-0.5 northern tier, 850s around Voyager-land on NW, 32 still W+S of all 27 - Same except drop the 0.25+, 850s north of PA, 32 UNV-MDT on east 30 - 0.1-0.25 in western half, 0.01-0.1 otherwise, 32 to far NEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Round 2 starts here. 42 0.01-0.1 all, 850 running I99 to my backyard, 32 way in NWPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 48 0.1-0.25 into SWPA, 850s MDT-Voyager on east, 32 UNV-IPT, still north of AVP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 51 0.1-0.25 for all except northern tier, 850s SE of MDT, 32 slightly E of UNV maybe a little SE of IPT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 54 0.25-0.5 MDT NE to Voyager-land, 0.1-0.25 everyone else, 850s clear, 32 pretty stubborn just east of MDT, running along 81 until probably around Schuylkill County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 57 0.1-0.25, Susky Valley hanging on to 0.25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 60 everyone 0.1-0.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 63 0.25+ creeping back into LSV. 0.1-0.25 running UNV-IPT-just N of AVP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 66 0.01-0.1 true central, 0.1-0.25 holding the 81 corridor SW, 0.25+ eastern half of PA/MD border 69 0.1-0.25 hanging on in southern areas, 0.01-0.1 still in parts of true central (UNV/IPT) 72 Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Overall a little further north and wetter than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Let's bump that 50 miles north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM has quite the sleet storm for parts of the LSV (2"-3") plus an insane snow gradient over Cumberland county (2"-12"). But no other model I believe is showing something that crazy. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 3Z SREF came in at 8.2" vs 5.65" @ 21z & 4.92" @ 15z. The 6z NAM is still stubborn setting up the sleet band of death through the LSV and having one go from 12" of snow to 3" of sleet & 2" snow in a manner of 10 miles Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Updated WPC snow/ice probability >4" >8" >12" > .10 ice > .25 ice >.50 ice Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 After looking at most of the 0z model runs, I think the LSV is in a good spot for near 6 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 After looking at most of the 0z model runs, I think the LSV is in a good spot for near 6 inches of snow. Looking like this could be our biggest event of the year. i'm thinking we could start as snow today for a brief period, Whats your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looking at the 700 mb wind field from the 06z NAM, you can see how there is a significant ageostrophic component to the flow over the southern portion of PA. That ageostrophic flow is essential to bringing moisture into the cold side of the front. It is also symptomatic of the large area of frontogenesis associated with the strengthening upper-level jet streak. There seems to be pretty good agreement among guidance that this feature will be present to provide mesoscale lifting and transport of moisture into the cold air. However, it remains to be seen how far this intense region of snowfall extends to the NW. At the moment it certainly looks most favorable for the southeast third of the state. We are still ~48-54 hours out so slight changes in the relative magnitudes of the midwest/great plains CAA and the southeast WAA could shift where the ageostrophic circulation associated with the jet streak sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy56 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looking at the 700 mb wind field from the 06z NAM, you can see how there is a significant ageostrophic component to the flow over the southern portion of PA. That ageostrophic flow is essential to bringing moisture into the cold side of the front. It is also symptomatic of the large area of frontogenesis associated with the strengthening upper-level jet streak. There seems to be pretty good agreement among guidance that this feature will be present to provide mesoscale lifting and transport of moisture into the cold air. However, it remains to be seen how far this intense region of snowfall extends to the NW. At the moment it certainly looks most favorable for the southeast third of the state. We are still ~48-54 hours out so slight changes in the relative magnitudes of the midwest/great plains CAA and the southeast WAA could shift where the ageostrophic circulation associated with the jet streak sets up. These are types of posts that justify my hours of continuous lurking here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looking like this could be our biggest event of the year. i'm thinking we could start as snow today for a brief period, Whats your thoughts? I think not likely... by the time the heavier precip arrives to get through the dry air and reach the ground we will already have the warmer air aloft in place. The leading nose of the warm air is moving in around 800-750 mb as was expected according to the 12z soundings to our south and west. I am thinking some sleet but changing to rain. Don't think we see much sleet accumulation here. Even with freezing rain the areas that get significantly warm aloft I just don't see much icing occurring (except for where the rain causes ponding) with the layer with temps below freezing likely ending up fairly thin. The NAM has stayed on the extreme side of the models with trying to drive the warm layer close to +10C which would be way too warm for good accretion if it actually occurred. below is the 12z sounding from Wilmington, OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think not likely... by the time the heavier precip arrives to get through the dry air and reach the ground we will already have the warmer air aloft in place. The leading nose of the warm air is moving in around 800-750 mb as was expected according to the 12z soundings to our south and west. I am thinking some sleet but changing to rain. Don't think we see much sleet accumulation here. Even with freezing rain the areas that get significantly warm aloft I just don't see much icing occurring (except for where the rain causes ponding) with the layer with temps below freezing likely ending up fairly thin. The NAM has stayed on the extreme side of the models with trying to drive the warm layer close to +10C which would be way too warm for good accretion if it actually occurred. good post, Thank you. When i looked earlier, i didn't honestly think we would have significant snow, i just thought it looked like we would have a little of everything, start as snow and quickly changing to sleet, frzn and then plain rain, with minimal impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Can it be Thursday morning yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Can it be Thursday morning yet? Patience grasshopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Whats up with this storm today, looked at obs even in OH and see no precip reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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