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Central PA & The Fringes - Early March 2015


MAG5035

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For NEPA...

 


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AMEST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS INEFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY.* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.* HAZARDS...SNOW... FREEZING RAIN... AND SLEET.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW... FOLLOWED BY UP TO A  QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.* TIMING...SNOW STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRANSITIONING OVER  TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET DURING THE EARLY  EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS. ISOLATED POWER  OUTAGES MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF ICE AND GUSTY WINDS.
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Binghamton's CWA is colossal. Can't they put an office in Utica or Syracuse or something?

 

Or at least have a doppler near Scranton so that whole part of eastern PA would be easier to monitor these winter storms coming into that area (or severe weather in the summer). Actually, one in Reading would ideally fill that radar hole. 

 

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That's true, but the operational GFS has budged... The past two runs have made quite a decent shift northward, actually.

 

I still think that frontal boundary will be sluggish to press southeast especially with that second wave right on the heels of the first one. 

 

Probably won't be to the point of full NAM, but that solution isn't particularly outlandish either. The cold air that is pressing will be pretty legit too and certainly nothing marginal, so we could be talking more ice again in the southern tier to start (or transition back from rain if precip never really ends from wave #1) with the cold air bleeding in at the surface and low levels first if the more northern solutions come to fruition. Either way, I know I'd rather watch this whole mess evolve from this region instead of the DC tropics. 

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With a robust +AO/NAO and a southeast ridge, I think I'd rather be in central PA than DC or even northern MD. I know many of you think I-95 is always the sweet spot, but we've got all kinds of issues with timing of the front, temps above the 850 level, and possible prolonged sleet. If I had to put my money on any of the recent runs, I'd go with the UKMET (though its QPF may be overdone). This has time to nudge north.

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