Blizzard of 93 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Good old NAM shows 2-4 inches for the next wave on Tuesday for most of CTP, With higher amounts in western portions of the region. The last storm later this week looks juiced on the NAM as well ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Right at 5" as the precip is starting to shut off around here. Nice storm. Oh why must it be the 84-hour NAM.... Holy **** haha, with the -10 isotherm at 850mb cutting PA cleanly in half diagonally to boot. NAM'ed for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 3.5" should do it here. Another addition to the almost 2 month old snow cover. Gonna do a core tomorrow to see what's on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 6" total from the storm. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS way further southeast...only light snows for LSV. Flurries elsewhere. S NJ/DE/SE MD/VA the winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS way further southeast...only light snows for LSV. Flurries elsewhere. S NJ/DE/SE MD/VA the winners. for which storm? I vote the GFS off the island.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 for which storm? I vote the GFS off the island.... Thursday Good news is that the UK looks more like the NAM at hr72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Seasonal trends say thursday storm will come north,it's just the goofus being the goofus again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 European looks like a pretty big southern PA and I-70 corridor hit again. Pretty major thermal gradient as well... at hour 78 the 850mb -16ºC line is into NW PA while the +12ºC line is across North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 This week is certainly looking eventful... I'm becoming quite concerned about the ice potential with the Tuesday/Wed system. Can barely call it a cutter anymore, looks more like a piece of southern energy that ejects out and a more dominant northern stream low that resides all the way up in Ontario (as in the Canada Territory Ontario, not the lake). Once again, utter lack of a surface (or 850/700) low tells me that it won't be cut and dry to say the least with the p-types over the commonwealth with this particular system. Broad SW flow and rising heights in response to the digging out west will certainly ensure warm air comes in aloft, but no strong surface low running to the lakes indicates to me that low level temps are probably going to anchor themselves near the freezing mark or below for a good part of this in the eastern 2/3s of the state in general and the central third in particular. Could set up a significant sleet/zr period in the central counties. Bulk of precip looking to come thru during the evening Tuesday helps the case for freezing rain if the surface temps are there. The NAM/SREFs have had a lot of sleet as well. In fact CTP grids for my point and click location are indicating 1-2 inches of it during Tuesday changing to rain or freezing rain Tue night. WPC probs for >.25" ZR are def supportive of winter storm watches potentially being needed for at least some of the central counties as noted in the map here: So there's that, and then it is beginning to look like at least the southern third to half of the region is going to be decently impacted by the second wave that runs the frontal boundary on Thursday. GFS on its own just skirting the southern tier with snow, European has at least moderate snow for the southern third of the state and the NAM/GGEM are hitting the majority of the state pretty squarely. Euro ensemble mean is a bit more expansive getting at least the southern half to two thirds of the state in moderate snows and more notably the GFS ensemble mean actually looks at lot like the Euro's ensemble mean. So my current assessment of the situation would be that from I-80 southward (at the least) is looking at the increasing potential of a sizable snowfall. Positioning of the frontal boundary is going to be very important for this second wave, as the corridor of heavy snow is likely not going to be extremely wide. But given the big time thermal gradient, this could be a pretty big snowfall for the folks lucky/unlucky enough to get it. Here's WPC day 3 probs of >4", which probably aren't encompassing the whole storm yet for PA. But there's the initial take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Thanks for those thoughts, MAG. Looking like it could be a high-impact event here. So I took a snow core this morning and melted it down. I used the relatively undisturbed area on the north side of my apartment. Depth was 10-16" over the area, so I found a spot at 12.5-13" and cored there. Melted to 2.91" of liquid, which lines up pretty well with the precip totals for the area since January 6. If we add another 0.75-1"+ tomorrow into Wednesday we are really setting ourselves up for problems if/when we finally have a warm rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Holy wind. Roads are rough in spots with snow being blown right back on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Feeling an ice storm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Holy wind. Roads are rough in spots with snow being blown right back on them. My point & click says areas of blowing snow today as well but our snowpack down here is solidly encased with at least 1/4" of ice. It was tough to bust loose in spots on the driveway this morning. Sledding is fantastic though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Long range Nam tends to be to far NW and the gfs tends to be to far SE. UKmet looks interesting. Looks like it's going to be a busy week!!! WmsptWX Going to fire up my generator today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 You guys up north and west of the LSV might have some ice buildups, yikes. I hope that doesn't come to total fruition ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Feeling an ice storm tomorrow. Long range Nam tends to be to far NW and the gfs tends to be to far SE. UKmet looks interesting. Looks like it's going to be a busy week!!! WmsptWX Going to fire up my generator today. down here looks like a little frzn then goes to rain for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 BGM morning AFD on the pending snow/ice threat: MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXTSYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONGWAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIRIN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO AVERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BYTHE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IPAND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITINGTHE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDGCOOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILLBE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELSMAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OFI81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THENGT.AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINESHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOWSHWRS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 My point & click says areas of blowing snow today as well but our snowpack down here is solidly encased with at least 1/4" of ice. It was tough to bust loose in spots on the driveway this morning. Sledding is fantastic though. A glaze on top of snow is the best. I remember back in Atlanta we got 6" or so with a .2" ish glaze and we couldn't leave our driveway for 5 days since it was so persistent (even with sun angles probably equal to April up here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 That dip in the west coast is pretty impressive. Will that push things further south? http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12®ion=he Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 temps rising fast, melting has started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 That dip in the west coast is pretty impressive. Will that push things further south? http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12®ion=he I hope that rough persists for a few weeks out there. The west coast desperately needs snow and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The real fun begins with wed/Thursday event. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM generally remained north but came southeast a bit for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 What's NAM look like for event tmrw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 What's NAM look like for event tmrw? strongest warm air advection we have seen in quite some time... might be too warm to create significant icing in some of the far west and southeast PA... ponding in lower laying areas that will freeze over in the region with deep current snow/ice packs may be biggest threat. Likely sleet to rain for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z NAM says let it...ping? Ice numbers: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Dang, lots of sleet, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 strongest warm air advection we have seen in quite some time... might be too warm to create significant icing in some of the far west and southeast PA... ponding in lower laying areas that will freeze over in the region with deep current snow/ice packs may be biggest threat. Likely sleet to rain for many. I agree, especially in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z NAM says let it...ping? Ice numbers: Man...just glacial if that verifies. Nothing like ~4" of liquid in the pack heading deeper into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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