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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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Come on Brick--January 2000? I lived through that one in Cary. Nope, not buying it. However unsettled week coming up for sure. We pop a closed off storm and things could be very different from what is being modeled.

Yeah, not saying that is happening. Just saying like others have that we had some small events before the big one in a short amount of time, and next week could be similar.

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Weekend storm looks suppressed on the 00z GFS...

Weekend storm or Thursday storm?

 

"Weekend storm" big hit for eastern NC...it's actually a Friday storm...not like it matters...all attention should be on the Thursday system as it's likely the weekend system will change a billion times.

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The ukie will be out In a few. Hopefully someone with a PhD can interpret it for us , since we'll all be snoring when the finer details come out. Interested to see if it puts down the 6 inch white carpet from charlotte to Durham and points nw again.

I think most are more concerned with what happens south and east of that line! :D

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The NAVGEM looks a little warm for most, but it's still there, so that's good.

 

I'm not sure about the UKMET.  It's out on Meteocentre, but hr 96 and hr 120 are the only panels out and it's hard to see what happens in between (would be nice to have the hr 108 panel).

 

It would be nice if the GFS would jump onboard...

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The NAVGEM looks a little warm for most, but it's still there, so that's good.

 

I'm not sure about the UKMET.  It's out on Meteocentre, but hr 96 and hr 120 are the only panels out and it's hard to see what happens in between (would be nice to have the hr 108 panel).

 

It would be nice if the GFS would jump onboard...

I would be far more worried at this range if the GFS was showing a nice tracking coastal. Not a single event all winter for anyone in the east had been correct at 96-108 hours out. If it does catch on would want it to start inside 72 hours.

I may be embellishing a little...but just a little.

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The upcoming week feels a lot like Jan 2000.  We had a period of a couple weeks where we had multiple threats but tough to nail down the timing of the SW's.  It was not a question of if but when we were going to get the big dog here in upstate SC.  Instead we only ended up with a couple of weenie dogs while those south of 85 got Great Daned.  As I recall,  the Carolina Crusher really only crystalized about 12 hours before it hit.  Hope we see a widespread SE event this week but if not I feel someone is in for a surprise before next Saturday.  Should be a fun week.... 

Yeah you are right about that. I was living in Greenwood then and we got a good foot of snow beginning early that morning after getting heavy rain all night. It was a complete surprise for our area. It was a now casting event up until about lunch time and by then we had about 4 inches and they were calling for 4 to 6 more from then on. About one foot I measured in my yard right before nightfall. The only thing I didn't like about it was that we didn't have two or three days before it to get excited about it, but it was great anyway.

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I would be far more worried at this range if the GFS was showing a nice tracking coastal. Not a single event all winter for anyone in the east had been correct at 96-108 hours out. If it does catch on would want it to start inside 72 hours.

I may be embellishing a little...but just a little.

 

Agree pack...Look at Monday for example.

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The NAVGEM looks a little warm for most, but it's still there, so that's good.

 

I'm not sure about the UKMET.  It's out on Meteocentre, but hr 96 and hr 120 are the only panels out and it's hard to see what happens in between (would be nice to have the hr 108 panel).

 

It would be nice if the GFS would jump onboard...

 

The UKMET has something from 60-72 in AL/GA similar to the NAM....the GFS/NavGEM have nothing in that window while the GGEM sort of hints at it but is more south

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I would be far more worried at this range if the GFS was showing a nice tracking coastal. Not a single event all winter for anyone in the east had been correct at 96-108 hours out. If it does catch on would want it to start inside 72 hours.

I may be embellishing a little...but just a little.

 

Looks like the Canadian is south again, too, though different than last run in its timing.

 

EDIT: Well, it tries to get things together late and throws some of NC a flizzard party.

 

The UKMET has something from 60-72 in AL/GA similar to the NAM....the GFS/NavGEM have nothing in that window while the GGEM sort of hints at it but is more south

 

Ah, yes...  I can't believe all the uncertainty with events just a few days out.  It's crazy to have one model showing 6"+ within 4 days while another model shows hardly any storm at all.

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