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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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AT 230 PM...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS STATISTICAL  
GUIDANCE STILL SOLIDLY SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OVER  
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE  
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE  
VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH  
ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SC COAST BY 12Z THU.  
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL SORTS OF DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL  
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. NO NEED TO GO  
INTO DETAILS ON THAT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE  
MOST SIGNIFICANT BANDING WILL DEVELOP AND ALSO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW  
LINE WILL SET UP. STILL EXPECT THAT DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL BECOME  
SUFFICENT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS  
FOR SNOW PROFILES TO PREDOMINATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF  
PRECIP MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN  
AS RAIN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH  
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IS NOW TO SHOW THE MAXIMUM FROM THE EASTERN  
UPSTATE...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WHERE 8-10  
INCHES IS EXPECTED.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE FARTHER  
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH BRINGS A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF  
INTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. ALSO...MESO MODELS ARE HITTING THAT AREA  
WITH THE HIGHEST QPF. IT ALSO SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT SOME  
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS IN  
SOME AREAS.
THE FFC MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WARM NOSE  
BELOW 700 MB SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS LIKELY TO SET UP FROM  
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH GA...EASTWARD THROUGH ELBERT COUNTY  
GA...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES SC. THUS...SNOWFALL ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE FROM THE NORTH TO  
SOUTH. OF COURSE THE BIGGEST WILD CARD WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE  
SNOW/RAIN LINE ACROSS THE LOWER PIEDMONT COUNTIES.  
 
THE SNOW WILL END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND  
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z THU. THU SHOLD BE DRY OTHER THAN  
FOR SOME SCT SW- OVER THE ESCARPMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. USED  
PRIMARLILY A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR MOST FIELDS TONIGHT TRYING TO  
CAPTURE THE EXTENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING. ALSO SHADED MAX TEMPS ON THU  
TOWEARD THE COOLEST RAW GFS NUMBERS IN DEFERENCE TO SNOW...AND THAT  
MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH.  

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Nam is WET at 15! Pushes the .50 line to me and points west. Unreal how much this has trended today

Yeah, it's like 3"/hr rates here. I'm in. Sounds exciting.

 

 

I like our position here.  With the low strengthening as it makes the turn and therefore probably coming just a bit more west than modeled, we may end up with the jackpot.

 

Agreed.  Even the crazy amped NAM is all-snow here, though it's kind of cutting it close (gotta cut it close for those jackpot totals, though).  Hard to believe we could be jackpotting (or close to it) after it looked like the storm was going to go wide right a few days ago.  The NW trend is our friend for once...

 

If we get some of the snowfall rates the models are advertising, I am pretty sure that it will be the heaviest I have ever seen.  I'm pretty sure I've never seen 3"/hr rates and probably not even 2"/hr rates.

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Hour 15 on the 18z NAM.

 

RDU:

Date: 15 hour Eta valid 9Z THU 26 FEB 15
Station: 35.87,-78.78
Latitude: 35.87
Longitude: -78.78
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W
mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 1000 59
SFC 994 105 0.3 -0.2 97 0.5 0.1 47 11 273.9 274.5 273.5 284.1 3.78
2 950 468 -1.8 -2.4 95 0.6 -2.0 51 28 275.4 275.9 273.8 284.6 3.36
3 900 900 0.0 -0.2 98 0.2 -0.1 66 16 281.5 282.2 278.2 293.2 4.18
4 850 1358 0.0 -0.1 99 0.2 -0.0 163 6 286.2 286.9 280.8 298.8 4.45
5 800 1843 -0.9 -1.3 97 0.4 -1.1 219 7 290.2 291.0 282.5 302.7 4.34
6 750 2356 -3.0 -3.6 96 0.6 -3.3 155 22 293.3 294.0 283.3 304.8 3.90
7 700 2904 -1.9 -2.2 98 0.3 -2.1 185 47 300.4 301.2 286.8 314.3 4.64
8 650 3493 -3.4 -3.6 98 0.3 -3.5 209 65 305.2 306.0 288.4 319.0 4.50
9 600 4123 -6.4 -6.7 98 0.3 -6.5 225 71 308.8 309.5 289.0 320.8 3.86
10 550 4800 -10.1 -10.6 96 0.5 -10.3 234 76 312.1 312.6 289.3 322.0 3.10
11 500 5527 -15.0 -17.2 84 2.1 -15.7 230 87 314.7 315.1 289.1 321.3 1.99

 

GSO

Date: 15 hour Eta valid 9Z THU 26 FEB 15
Station: 36.08,-79.95
Latitude: 36.08
Longitude: -79.95
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W
mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 1000 66
SFC 977 252 -0.3 -0.9 96 0.6 -0.6 26 9 274.6 275.2 273.8 284.6 3.65
2 950 476 -2.1 -2.5 97 0.4 -2.3 39 18 275.1 275.6 273.6 284.2 3.34
3 900 903 -3.6 -4.4 94 0.8 -3.9 57 23 277.8 278.3 274.8 286.3 3.07
4 850 1356 -2.6 -3.1 96 0.5 -2.8 93 13 283.4 284.1 278.4 293.5 3.57
5 800 1838 -1.6 -2.1 96 0.5 -1.9 186 11 289.4 290.1 281.8 301.2 4.09
6 750 2352 -1.9 -2.5 96 0.6 -2.1 219 26 294.5 295.3 284.2 307.0 4.25
7 700 2900 -3.9 -4.6 95 0.7 -4.3 208 34 298.1 298.8 285.2 309.7 3.87
8 650 3481 -6.4 -7.7 90 1.4 -6.9 227 43 301.8 302.4 286.0 311.8 3.29
9 600 4105 -8.7 -10.6 86 1.9 -9.4 233 51 306.0 306.6 287.1 314.9 2.83
10 550 4774 -13.5 -14.8 90 1.3 -13.9 232 61 308.0 308.4 287.1 315.1 2.20
11 500 5492 -17.0 -28.5 36 11.6 -19.3 225 76 312.4 312.5 287.1 314.8 0.73

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