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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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There's still so much cold air all over SE US. 6Z GFS 2M's look too warm. Hard for me to believe that wintry precip won't dominate ATL -AHN though I do wonder if sleet sneaks in as at least part of it in some CAD areas like ATL-AHN. I do remember the great 2/1979 sleetstorm. It was predicted to be mainly snow. I'm not predicting sleet but am wondering about the possibility.

Any opinions?

As I was glancing through the bufkit outputs, most areas (including Atlanta) has trended a degree or so colder at 2m on both the Nam and GFS when comparing 0z to 6z runs.  It may be playing catch-up and will tick colder at the surface as the day progresses.

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I think we mix with sleet, not rain, we almost always do with big events.

Allan said this morning that taken literally we could see some sleet mixing. Something else I saw said maybe in the end. Idk. But anyway, I think Wake (warning area) will be good to avoid rain transition per what the NWS said. It's areas like Johnston and south etc that stand that chance more. That's my non-expert synopsis of what I'm reading. Lol

Looks like a big one. I'm in NW Raleigh myself.

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There's still so much cold air all over SE US. 6Z GFS 2M's look too warm. Hard for me to believe that wintry precip won't dominate ATL -AHN though I do wonder if sleet sneaks in as at least part of it in some CAD areas like ATL-AHN. I do remember the great 2/1979 sleetstorm. It was predicted to be mainly snow. I'm not predicting sleet but am wondering about the possibility.

Any opinions?

 

I didn't expect to see stars when I woke up early this morning.  As the sun began to rise, I noticed the a low could deck moving in.  If temps can hold to near 36 or so, I think we're in business.  I also totally missed the Freezing Fog Advisory this morning.

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Man, the RAP looks pretty damn awesome. 

 

Yea, We are definitely getting Rap'ed this morning... :lmao:

 

Soundings are pretty warm on it, but thats typical from the events I've followed in the past. They should start to come more in line with other modeling as we get closer to the event.

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Yea, We are definitely getting Rap'ed this morning... :lmao:

 

Soundings are pretty warm on it, but thats typical from the events I've followed in the past. They should start to come more in line with other modeling as we get closer to the event.

 

It's usually a dry model too, right? It's cranking out QPF totals near 1.5" in Newberry. 

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We have a thick cloud deck here already. Temp is around 30 degree's and we still have some snow cover left over. I see no way we get to our forecast high's of the low 40's...

Kinda what I was thinking. Sitting at 29 with thick clouds and looks to remain mostly cloudy. Hopefully cut down on the amount of rain to start with.
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I didn't expect to see stars when I woke up early this morning.  As the sun began to rise, I noticed the a low could deck moving in.  If temps can hold to near 36 or so, I think we're in business.  I also totally missed the Freezing Fog Advisory this morning.

It dropped a little while ago to 28.6 in Dunwoody with heavy frost (now 28.9). It looks like there may be an hour or so of partial sunshine per current skies here and satellite.

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For the foothills regions of Southwest Va.to Southwest NC don't be surprised if our snow  totals are higher than advertised. 

 

1.) Models tend to dry us out a little thinking there is some sort of downslope wind drying us out.

 

2.) Orographic lift 

 

3.) Models have tended to dry us out. only to be wetter in the last few weeks. Trend I have noticed

 

4.) NW trend on the models 

 

Of course we know all the reasons this could not happen but giving some reasoning  behind why we could see more snow .

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There's still so much cold air all over SE US. 6Z GFS 2M's look too warm. Hard for me to believe that wintry precip won't dominate ATL -AHN though I do wonder if sleet sneaks in as at least part of it in some CAD areas like ATL-AHN. I do remember the great 2/1979 sleetstorm. It was predicted to be mainly snow. I'm not predicting sleet but am wondering about the possibility.

Any opinions?

I remember that 1979 storm. We had moderate sleet for a good 20 hours. 2m temps were low '20's for the duration. Very strong CAD!

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It's usually a dry model too, right? It's cranking out QPF totals near 1.5" in Newberry. 

IMO, it tends to be a little to extreme on "maxima area's" and a little too dry in "minima area's", but it normally does a fairly good job of defining the maxima and minima area's overall... Especially inside of 12 hours. 

 

 

But yea, it's definitely encouraging to see what it's spitting out this morning... it's nice to not have to worry about gulf convection robbing moisture... it actually looks like the convection emanating from the gulf is only going to enhance our totals.

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RAH just updated by location with this:

  • Tonight Snow, mainly after 11pm. Low around 29. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 9 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
  • Thursday A chance of freezing rain before 10am, then a chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle between 10am and 11am, then a chance of drizzle after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Northeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
  • Thursday Night A chance of freezing drizzle before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. North wind 3 to 6 mph
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One thing is for sure... soil temperatures could not possibly be any better for this time of year. I know the soil temp arguement against accumulations is bogus, but soil temp does play a huge effect in how long the snow stays on the ground after it has fallen.

I was about to post the same thing. My yard looks like a tundra with patches of snow and rock hard ground. I'm currently 26 so stickage will not be an issue.
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I think I may see a good mix of rain.  I'm near Fuquay, right near the southern edge of Wake...

 

Northern Wake could be quite different than me.  

Barring another jog n'west, I think y'all,northern Harnett and Lee will see minimal mixing and some decent totals. The 850 temps will be tricky for a bit.

 

Meanwhile, 25 miles down the road, FAY stands a solid chance of watching the parade pass us by.

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Steve,

Look at the 6Z GFS progged 925's vs 850's for MGE, PDK, and AHN. They're generally colder and at -1 C most of the time while 850's are as warm as +1 C. So, 4K feet above ground 34 F while it is 30 F at 2K feet above ground?? That seems sleety if those levels were to be accurate. In the past, I've noticed 850's in the +1C to +2.5C range while there is decent wedging has resulted in sleet as the main precip type. Regardless, 2M temp's, which are a little warmer on this GFS run, are almost certainly quite a bit too warm and would likely be closer to 28-30 F.

Opinions Steve or others?

i've been thinking for a while that there could be a very narrow area of sleet since soundings have suggested it's possible but it's impossible to tell where that will be since a lot of that will depend on meso effects that simply are impossible to narrow down this far in advance imo

 

That said, the rap is throwing a big monkey wrench into things as it's showing major dynamical cooling on it's latest run with 850s dropping to 0 or below all the way into central ga. As a whole it's been colder than the nam/gfs anyway at 850s but  this would spell the possibility of snow accumulations south of where the transition is expected to be.  I'm not sure if it will be as far south as it's 850s would say since the low levels are probably not cold enough in central ga but  what is important is it's showing that cooling  its possible.

 

btw other panel is to show that the rap is quite a bit further south with the 0c 850 on some runs

 

 

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That said, the rap is throwing a big monkey wrench into things as it's showing major dynamical cooling on it's latest run with 850s dropping to 0 or below all the way into central ga. As a whole it's been colder than the nam/gfs anyway at 850s but this would spell the possibility of snow accumulations south of where the transition is expected to be. I'm not sure if it will be as far south as it's 850s would say since the low levels are probably not cold enough in central ga but what is important is it's showing that cooling its possible.

What did you get down to this morning? We were a little colder than progged, along with the freezing fog thing. Hope one or two little things will make all the difference in the world today. Seems as if most of he guidance was a little on the high side with temps, albeit not that much.

- Buck

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This is the Euro's 850 temps right at the height of the precip for central NC, verbatim, the Euro is no mixing for Wake.   I think I-95 will be the rain/snow line, maybe a little east of that.  The Euro was about 0.75" QPF for all of Wake Co with 0.5" reaching the triad.  That probably is the best QPF expectation, not buying the insane 1.5" QPF of the NAM's.  The RGEM/GFS are roughly around the Euro QPF wise.

 

 

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