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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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You are the only one saying rain.

I think it will have some rain mixed in for sure at RDU.  Not all rain...  but some rain to cut down accumulation totals.  This is very similar to situations I've experienced in the past...  That rain/snow line is gonna creep up toward Wake Co. for sure...    

Forecasters intuition based on what i've seen.  

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HUH?  You were worried enough about RDU's mid-level temps is that your first post is that the NAM sucked for RDU and now your saying your not worried about your own temps...good luck with that.

 

Yes I was worried that thickness wasn't good for RDU...then I looked at output and saw it was fine. CLT looks better WRT thickness than RDU so no I'm not worried about it. Whats always been your problem with me? 

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Yes I was worried that thickness wasn't good for RDU...then I looked at output and saw it was fine. CLT looks better WRT thickness than RDU so no I'm not worried about it. What's always been your problem with me? 

 

How does it look better?  I just showed it wasn't, not even close.

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I think sleet could mix in for a period in Raleigh if the nam is a perfect prog, but it's likely a little too wound up which is normal for it. Generally anytim the slp is a solid 50 miles offshore like it's showing, snow is the primary precip type from raleigh west. Just relax people.

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I think sleet could mix in for a period in Raleigh if the nam is a perfect prog, but it's likely a little too wound up which is normal for it. Generally anytim the slp is a solid 50 miles offshore like it's showing, snow is the primary precip type from raleigh west. Just relax people.

this is the normal 36hrs out panic, people wont settle down until it is on top of them.  

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This is when meteorology outweighs modelology...

 

Having experience in this area gives you a lot of insider knowledge into what is actually going to happen..

 

That's why I'm going with more rain than snow for RDU.  Rain to begin with, changing to some snow...1-2 inches.

That's not meteorology. That's just stupid.
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I wish for once I could count on a solid big one. Maybe I am fretting over nothing but It would break my weenie heart to have a cold rain while 10 miles away gets plastered.

I've been watching WSB all morning and they seem to be doing a decent job while being vague. They show a quick hitting mix tomorrow afternoon and then regurgitate the NWS a bit.

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Let it go....let it go....let it go.  I don't think you know where RDU is, LOL.

 

The X was just a spot I picked on the map. I know RDU is west of there. When you're quickly looking at a map that isn't zoomed into an area you can't pinpoint things exactly. Again you do this every year and I've never understood what your problem is with me. Instead of being passive aggressive about it just come out and say it. 

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The X was just a spot I picked on the map. I know RDU is west of there. When you're quickly looking at a map that isn't zoomed into an area you can't pinpoint things exactly. Again you do this every year and I've never understood what your problem is with me. Instead of being passive aggressive about it just come out and say it. 

 

Dude your right, my bad, it was a slot of sleet for us and all snow for CLT.

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I don't know what to believe. 00z Euro with 1-2" and NAM with piles of sleet. WTF?

At least the 06z GFS was beefier.

Looking at Bufkit for RDU - the nose just barely hits 0C around 8K at 08Z, onto +2 at 09Z, back to -1 at 10Z.  So even though it indicates IP from 4 - 7 a.m. Thursday, sounding is most likely mainly snow except for an hour.

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No worries, Chris. Glenn Burns said there would be a pop-up snow storm in your neck of the woods at exactly 4:43PM Wednesday. ;)

lol..yeah boy. I always depend on glenn f'n burns to keep us up to speed....the only problem is he normally is going backwards :arrowhead:

 

a word about the nam. it's is a good bit further north than the rest of the guidance, excluding the sref of course. at the same time the nam has the surface low along the florida panhandle or even extreme se alabama, the gfs and euro has it well down in the gulf..with the canadian and uk probably a good 75 to 100 miles further south.

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