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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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NAM even warms up a lot of NC. I don't love seeing this look after the SREF came in with a lot of warm members.

 

What a nightmare to forecast so close to the event.  If a forecast busts in either direction for ATL, it's going to be quite chaotic around there.  That's the biggest problem area I see now of course.  Areas of NC do try to warm..

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Not worried about thickness on this run? Looked like a lot of sleet...but I guess that will be overcome with cooling.

The verbatim skew-Ts look okay there, though the warm nose around 750 mb will have to be monitored. Not far from disaster for them, but that's where you have to be to score the jackpot.

Of course, our warm noses are always served piping hot, so it would not be surprising to see the warm nose underdone.

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I think the upstate of sc has a good chance of seeing thunder snow Wednesday night.

I've wondered myself if someone could, especially if you look at the nam. It pretty much brings an axis of convection through ga/sc. probably over done though

 

NAM is warm for north GA

the nam and it's sref are sort of by themselves right now with the rest of the guidance. euro and gfs ensembles, canadian, uk, etc all are south of the nam/sref and much more reasonable with it's waa pattern as the nam is probably overdoing it. If there was other model support besides the nam and it's ensembles/sref then it would be a cause for concern for sure for north ga/sc and parts of nc..but if the rest of the 12z models come in similar to last night, i'm not taking anything it's showing seriously.

 

I just turned on the tv to see what WSB was saying.  Minton showed a series of rough maps for tomorrow afternoon that clearly showed a frozen mix falling in the north ATL metro counties (Cobb, North Fulton, Gwinnett, etc.) by 5pm.   I'm not sure where you got the impression she was calling it a rain only event for ATL.  I mean her map did show rain, but that rain was generally south of I-20 at 5pm, which I don't think anyone here would argue vehemently against right now.

 

Anyway.  Smart people need to get off the roads in N ATL tomorrow by midafternoon.  Hopefully that gets communicated really well as today and tomorrow progress.

I didn't say she did, i was talking about the dude on nbc/channel 11. He flat out said he thought atlanta would see mainly rain with it being dry north and west of town. 

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Not worried about thickness on this run? Looked like a lot of sleet...but I guess that will be overcome with cooling. 

 

You always worry about something with winter weather  down here :) I looked at soundings for my house in Youngsvile, and we stay all snow. The 850/925 lines hang just south/east of RDU, so i assume they are mostly snow, maybe some sleet at height of storm.

 

Of course any more NW trend we would worry about sleet.

 

But I do think the NAM/SREF members are too amped so probably overdoing it,, therefore this is the warmest/most NW outlier at the moment in my opinion.

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I don't know what to believe. 00z Euro with 1-2" and NAM with piles of sleet. WTF?

At least the 06z GFS was beefier.

 

Doubt it is piles of sleet. The warmest mid-level NAM sounding at RDU it gets to 0.2C at 800mb at FHOUR 45. Now perhaps it is greater in between hours, but I think heavy snow rates would overcome that

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You always worry about something with winter weather  down here :) I looked at soundings for my house in Youngsvile, and we stay all snow. The 850/925 lines hang just south/east of RDU, so i assume they are mostly snow, maybe some sleet at height of storm.

 

Of course any more NW trend we would worry about sleet.

 

But I do think the NAM/SREF members are too amped so probably overdoing it,, therefore this is the warmest/most NW outlier at the moment in my opinion.

 

Yea just looked at the output and it looks like RDU is gonna jackpot this one. That will be a raging heavy snow...hell CLT can probably pull out 8-10. 

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I've wondered myself if someone could, especially if you look at the nam. It pretty much brings an axis of convection through ga/sc. probably over done though

 

the nam and it's sref are sort of by themselves right now with the rest of the guidance. euro and gfs ensembles, canadian, uk, etc all are south of the nam/sref and much more reasonable with it's waa pattern as the nam is probably overdoing it. If there was other model support besides the nam and it's ensembles/sref then it would be a cause for concern for sure for north ga/sc and parts of nc..but if the rest of the 12z models come in similar to last night, i'm not taking anything it's showing seriously.

 

I didn't say she did, i was talking about the dude on nbc/channel 11. He flat out said he thought atlanta would see mainly rain with it being dry north and west of town. 

 

No worries, Chris. Glenn Burns said there would be a pop-up snow storm in your neck of the woods at exactly 4:43PM Wednesday. ;)

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