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February 21-22 Storm Observations


Rtd208

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If all of the "coulda been" events over all the decades were added up, NYC's snow average would be 50". But alas, "coulda/shoulda" happens when the preceding events are against big snow around NYC.

Absolutely right. That is a general life rule. You can't live thinking woulda coulda.did it a long time after losing someone to a tragic accident. Anyway back to the weather.

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This is the most beautiful thing I've read. Wow. 

 

well said

 

You guys get what I'm saying though, that weather is about trying to predict and analyze something sort of predictable, but ultimately out of reach.  That's why we love it.  No matter how knowledgable we are (and obviously the field has some incredibly gifted talent), at a certain point, chaos takes over and something incredible happens.  Weather is so beautiful for that reason.  And for that reason, I can never take it for granted.  Every day has the potential to bring something new, ridiculous, incredible.  I have a habit of photographing sunrises and sunsets just for this reason.  We'll never be able to be comfortable.  We're always no more than a week away from something unbelievable happening that we had no idea could happen.

 

Thank you I am mainly interested in the social aspects of weather and you just encapsulated why in a most articulate fashion. I think many people here are hard science types and do not get the social importance of the weather, without which we would not have these boards. I'm sure there is some fascinating weather in the rain forests of New Guinea or a blizzard in remote parts of Canada, or even northern ME, but honestly, who really cares?  Just the experts and academics. Which is fine and great.

 

I really admire the people who built our weather models.  Even the NAM, which has a popular opinion of being shoddy, I think... how the HELL did people condense weather into a relatively neat set of equations?

 

When I look at human progress I think of a few things: the moon landing, and numerical weather prediction, and medicine.  But mostly the former.  It's just amazing to me that we have come such a long way that we are not arguing whether or not we'll get snow, but which computer correctly predicted WHERE that snow will be.  In 100 mile (or less) increments.

 

I know that sounds mushy and ridiculous but I really think people on this forum can take this kind of thing for granted... it's incredible.  It's truly incredible the wealth of knowledge we get to experience.

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Absolutely right. That is a general life rule. You can't live thinking woulda coulda.did it a long time after losing someone to a tragic accident. Anyway back to the weather.

I still think the long range euro snow totals for our area beat most of our "could have been's" ;).....We're between 100-150" so far

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You guys get what I'm saying though, that weather is about trying to predict and analyze something sort of predictable, but ultimately out of reach.  That's why we love it.  No matter how knowledgable we are (and obviously the field has some incredibly gifted talent), at a certain point, chaos takes over and something incredible happens.  Weather is so beautiful for that reason.  And for that reason, I can never take it for granted.  Every day has the potential to bring something new, ridiculous, incredible.  I have a habit of photographing sunrises and sunsets just for this reason.  We'll never be able to be comfortable.  We're always no more than a week away from something unbelievable happening that we had no idea could happen.

 

 

I really admire the people who built our weather models.  Even the NAM, which has a popular opinion of being shoddy, I think... how the HELL did people condense weather into a relatively neat set of equations?

 

When I look at human progress I think of a few things: the moon landing, and numerical weather prediction, and medicine.  But mostly the former.  It's just amazing to me that we have come such a long way that we are not arguing whether or not we'll get snow, but which computer correctly predicted WHERE that snow will be.  In 100 mile (or less) increments.

 

I know that sounds mushy and ridiculous but I really think people on this forum can take this kind of thing for granted... it's incredible.  It's truly incredible the wealth of knowledge we get to experience.

I totally get you man, more than you can understand right now reading this. Glad I'm not the only one. Your use of language to describe the mind of a weather weenie is top notch. 

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You guys get what I'm saying though, that weather is about trying to predict and analyze something sort of predictable, but ultimately out of reach.  That's why we love it.  No matter how knowledgable we are (and obviously the field has some incredibly gifted talent), at a certain point, chaos takes over and something incredible happens.  Weather is so beautiful for that reason.  And for that reason, I can never take it for granted.  Every day has the potential to bring something new, ridiculous, incredible.  I have a habit of photographing sunrises and sunsets just for this reason.  We'll never be able to be comfortable.  We're always no more than a week away from something unbelievable happening that we had no idea could happen.

 

 

I really admire the people who built our weather models.  Even the NAM, which has a popular opinion of being shoddy, I think... how the HELL did people condense weather into a relatively neat set of equations?

 

When I look at human progress I think of a few things: the moon landing, and numerical weather prediction, and medicine.  But mostly the former.  It's just amazing to me that we have come such a long way that we are not arguing whether or not we'll get snow, but which computer correctly predicted WHERE that snow will be.  In 100 mile (or less) increments.

 

I know that sounds mushy and ridiculous but I really think people on this forum can take this kind of thing for granted... it's incredible.  It's truly incredible the wealth of knowledge we get to experience.

Well said and I agree. These models are a wonder. Who are the math geniuses behind the software in these things? To translate weather that is so fluid and chaotic into math then used to predict based on data consumption is to me mind boggling!

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You guys get what I'm saying though, that weather is about trying to predict and analyze something sort of predictable, but ultimately out of reach.  That's why we love it.  No matter how knowledgable we are (and obviously the field has some incredibly gifted talent), at a certain point, chaos takes over and something incredible happens.  Weather is so beautiful for that reason.  And for that reason, I can never take it for granted.  Every day has the potential to bring something new, ridiculous, incredible.  I have a habit of photographing sunrises and sunsets just for this reason.  We'll never be able to be comfortable.  We're always no more than a week away from something unbelievable happening that we had no idea could happen.

 

 

I really admire the people who built our weather models.  Even the NAM, which has a popular opinion of being shoddy, I think... how the HELL did people condense weather into a relatively neat set of equations?

 

When I look at human progress I think of a few things: the moon landing, and numerical weather prediction, and medicine.  But mostly the former.  It's just amazing to me that we have come such a long way that we are not arguing whether or not we'll get snow, but which computer correctly predicted WHERE that snow will be.  In 100 mile (or less) increments.

 

I know that sounds mushy and ridiculous but I really think people on this forum can take this kind of thing for granted... it's incredible.  It's truly incredible the wealth of knowledge we get to experience.

I agree with it all. I also like the everything stopping aspect of the big snowstorms. To me...there is nothing like going outside late at night in a heavy snow, and hearing nothing at all except the footsteps I take, and the snowfall in the air/ hitting the ground and trees. It's truly awesome! 

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Now that this obs thread is a mix of random banter, obs, and fighting im going to bed, final obs 2.8" moderate snow expecting to wake up with about 4"... Night All

Going to bed before the 00z gfs comes out? Come on....lets see if it's giving us a shot for midweek...haha...gnite

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Whoever through out 5 or 7 to 1 ratios may be right, NYC reported 3.0 officially, they had 2.0 at 7pm with .19 liquid after that, so you'd have expected they got 4 but ended up with 3.

 

What about EWR:  I don't doubt the lousy ratios but Central park readings are a it suspect.

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Still mostly snow in Rockland but sleet pellets are starting to slowly mix in from time to time, seems a mid level warm tongue is sneaking in, even up here

Yea....transition line seems to be splitting rockland right now. Sleet/ frz rain in Nyack, but still all snow in Suffern and up in Stony Point

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