Windspeed Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 One thought I have is the initial thump of precipitation for east TN being mostly frozen, and then going to light rain or drizzle until the main low comes through. Might help parts of northeast TN hold onto snow on the ground if it happens that way. If the earlier NAM were to verify and the region around KTRI received around 5-7 inches of additional snow before the transition, would it not take a tremendous amount of rain to melt 11 inches of sitting accumulation? Even with all the sunshine today, it was so cold that I still have 5 inches of snow sitting in my front yard. I don't expect much melting tomorrow during the day due to cloud cover. On the other hand, the incoming system shows backside frozen precipitation and subfreezing temperatures resettling into the region as well. In other words, the snow cover for KTRI and points north may still be sitting in place for next week's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NWS Morristown Graphic Virtually every piece of data that I've seen today says that graphic is out to lunch for NE TN. I'm sure they are using common sense meteorology and are much more enlightened on the subject than I am. Glad it's not my job lol. Edit: Guess they are hugging the Euro/SREF combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Virtually every piece of data that I've seen today says that graphic is out to lunch for NE TN. I'm sure they are using common sense meteorology and are much more enlightened on the subject than I am. Glad it's not my job lol. Edit: Guess they are hugging the Euro/SREF combo. RGEM too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM too. RGEM drops a pretty stout swath of 6-8 inches across SWVA, I think Euro drops 4-6 in spots. Normally it's a high country type of thing but these models have been favoring Lee-Scott-Washington for some of the snow amounts, as well as the usual suspects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM drops a pretty stout swath of 6-8 inches across SWVA, I think Euro drops 4-6 in spots. Normally it's a high country type of thing but these models have been favoring Lee-Scott-Washington for some of the snow amounts, as well as the usual suspects RGEM has a fair amount of ice up that way too. It'll likely be a mess any way you slice it. I was just surprised they played low on it. Especially given the NAM/GFS/Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 lot more ice by the looks on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Shifted W some,less sn more ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks like the HP by Carolina is more stronger,keeping it more W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Short term models shouldn't shift that much in a 6 hour period. Wonder what the NAM ate for supper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Short term models shouldn't shift that much in a 6 hour period. Wonder what the NAM ate for supper? Yeah, That seems a little extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 At hr 33...is that symmetrical qpf? Am I supposed to believe that? 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The shift is even funnier in light of DT's first snow map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 4" down to north AL? Are we suppose to take him seriously...? lol The NWS following the Euro might have been a great call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The NAM at 0z looks quite a bit like the SREF and RGEM at this point in shifting the bulk of the wintry chances north. Might be a legitimate solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nam has the 850mb winds 80kts coming through the Valley,plus there is more convection in the western parts of the Valley...k index is 35, even at the reflective map you can see a linear line,total rip off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS joins the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN946 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015 .UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... HIGH CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING. THISIS AFFECTING TEMPERATURES...KEEPING THEM FROM FALLING TOO QUICKLYACROSS THE WEST WHILE THE MERCURY PLUMMETS ACROSS THE EAST...ANDIT IS RAISING THE CONCERN FOR SNOWS STARTING A LITTLE EARLIER THANPLANNED. I DON`T THINK THIS IS THE CASE HOWEVER. NO OB SITE ISSHOWING SNOW AND LAPS SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION ARE VERY DRY IN THEBOUNDARY LAYER. I WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR LIGHT SNOWFOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...BUT AS DRY AS IT IS...IT`S GOINGTO BE AWHILE BEFORE WE SEE ANY REAL SNOWFALL. ACCUMULATIONS AREN`TLIKELY UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 No Bueno on the 0z RGEM. Impressive shift north tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Some weak sauce...i'll hand it to the mets on this one, they saw something on the NAM/GFS that made them think otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 And yet another huge jump in the models with less than 24 hours to go on a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The RGEM is a crippling ice event for my area and most of the Plateau. It has something like .8 qpf falling as freezing rain over this area. The GFS seems to have maintained the 2 inches of snow, 2 of sleet, .15 ice look over a good portion of the area with some higher or lower amounts of each depending on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Again, looking just at PSU Euro maps...looks like an awful lot of that is frozen....Can anyone confirm this with better map products? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The RGEM is a crippling ice event for my area and most of the Plateau. It has something like .8 qpf falling as freezing rain over this area. The GFS seems to have maintained the 2 inches of snow, 2 of sleet, .15 ice look over a good portion of the area with some higher or lower amounts of each depending on location. John what does it show for KTRI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM freezing rain qpf. The 15-20mm is ,6 to .8 and the brighter yellow is .8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM freezing rain qpf. The 15-20mm is ,6 to .8 and the brighter yellow is .8+ Any ides on the 0z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM sleet is more focused towards Tri. It shows up to 10mm of sleet, which is .4 qpf, or about 1.3 inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM sleet is more focused towards Tri. It shows up to 10mm of sleet, which is .4 qpf, or about 1.3 inches of sleet. I am thinking more and more this is a dangerous ice storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Snow on the RGEM is more towards SW VA with very little in East Tennessee, maybe 1/2 inch or so, with only around .02 qpf as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The Euro keeps subfreezing surface temps over East Tennessee until hour 45 and over far NE Tn until 48 hours out. Which would be 4 pm and 7 pm respectively. It appears to have several periods of .10-.20 precip, over the course from 30-48hours. Most of which falls with 850s above freezing. I can't tell exactly how much falls, but I'd say ,5-.6 falls as zr over a good portion of Eastern Tennessee. Not completely positive though, as the precip maps aren't the easiest to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The Euro does appear to have several inches of snow in Eastern Tennessee from hour 108-120. Especially towards Tri. I don't have clown maps but it loops like maybe .4ish qpf falls with the 540 on the Tennessee/Georgia border. There appears to be multiple light overunning events all the way out to 180. The ice on the Euro looks like it's going be the particularly insidious kind, as it appears to accrue at around .02-.05 or so per hour for a lot of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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