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Weekend Mixed Bag of WTF storm thread

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I dunno if we will really torch on Sunday with snowpack and NW winds

That's was my thinking as well. If we torch. I don't think it will last long. We could get one of those weird warm-up^ for a short time. Then the good ole NW winds bring back that crisp, clean, cold NW wind back in. The remaining snowpack should freeze up like concrete.

It least that's what I'm hoping for.

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Not sure either but we could clear out early on Sunday and have a good deal of sunshine by the afternoon. GFS is 8-10 colder during the day on Sunday. I would probably split the difference.

Temps get to 40-45 for 4-6 hours and then back down again.

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I just want to give a shout to all of you and say "Thank You All So Much!." I have learned so much lurking and following your posts over the last few years. You are an amazing group.

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High res RGEM continues to be the voice of reason.

 

H7CbW5i.gif

According to that map, if I am interpreting this correctly, an inch and a half of water in Maryland. I hope from the very bottom of my white snow-streaked soul, that it is ALL SNOW for Maryland. They definitely deserve every last dendrite after last Monday

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03z SREFs through 00z (7pm) tonight give DC a lil over 0.5" QPF.  I used 00z as the cutoff because thats when we lose the 850s even though we still have another few hours to go before the 2mT goes above 32 degrees at DC

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According to that map, if I am interpreting this correctly, an inch and a half of water in Maryland. I hope from the very bottom of my white snow-streaked soul, that it is ALL SNOW for Maryland. They definitely deserve every last dendrite after last Monday

00z Run:

 

3nWJmcd.png

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FINAL CALL for DC proper.

 

10am - Noon: Light snow starts during this window.  Could become steadier by Noon.  Temps in the low to mid 20s.

 

Noon to 6pm: Snow, moderate to heavy at times.  Sleet may mix in, especially toward the end of this window.  Temps rise from the mid 20s to around freezing.

 

6pm - 10pm: Snow mixes with and changes over to sleet.  Sleet then mixes with and changes over to freezing rain/rain.  Temps in the low 30s.

 

10pm - 6am: Freezing rain/rain becomes all rain.  Temps rise into the mid 30s. (Rain could potentially freeze on contact for a time at 33 or even 34)

 

Total snow/sleet accumulation: 3-6"

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00z Run:

 

3nWJmcd.png

I think a foot for parts of Maryland is reasonable. However, I'll take that 10 over my house, chop it in half, and expect about 4 (maybe). 4 is climo in one storm here. I'd say 2 to 4 here, but Maryland could pick up a foot, their climo is quite different, especially more north and more west. I hope they get it!  :snowing:

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https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow

FINAL CALL for DC proper.

10am - Noon: Light snow starts during this window. Could become steadier by Noon. Temps in the low to mid 20s.

Noon to 6pm: Snow, moderate to heavy at times. Sleet may mix in, especially toward the end of this window. Temps rise from the mid 20s to around freezing.

6pm - 10pm: Snow mixes with and changes over to sleet. Sleet then mixes with and changes over to freezing rain/rain. Temps in the low 30s.

10pm - 6am: Freezing rain/rain becomes all rain. Temps rise into the mid 30s. (Rain could potentially freeze on contact for a time at 33 or even 34)

Total snow/sleet accumulation: 3-6"

Your outlook looks good to me. Quite a turnaround from a few days ago when it appeared that a wall-to-wall rain event was on tap. Thanks for the Euro updates (especially the favorable 1 AM updates). :) Enjoy the snow!

MDstorm

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06z Nam looks nice at hour 15

 

I haven't really analyzed it...I think it is drier for many, but for me and you there is more of a push southeast with the thump..

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Not only did nam cave like the Washington wizards..it became snowiest solution. We never lose 850s lol

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lol...925 temps are like +40.....

I didon't check all the levels but it seemed to keep 850 near zero for entire storm and did trend south with qpf max

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I didon't check all the levels but it seemed to keep 850 near zero for entire storm and did trend south with qpf max

 

you could conceivably stay snow on the NAMS until 9pm or so...in which case you'd do really well....

 

ETA - looking at NAM soundings, you are probably mixing at 8pm unless you are ripping your way through the column

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