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Weekend Mixed Bag of WTF storm thread


Ji

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I love that map because the reporting sites to my SW and NE are always an inch more than me (BWI) in every storm even though I am halfway between them     lol

It's a good bit better than 12z.. I honestly didn't look super close otherwise.. I think I lean wintry at this pt either way.

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We torch to 50 Sunday on the Euro.

Enjoy the snow to the full later today. ouch.

well thats life in the tropical mid atlantic I guess.

there's a reason so many are flocking to eastern Prince William, remarkably mild weather.

west Loudoun will never develop for 100 years. Too damn cold.

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Enjoy the snow to the full later today. ouch.

well thats life in the tropical mid atlantic I guess.

there's a reason so many are flocking to eastern Prince William, remarkably mild weather.

west Loudoun will never develop for 100 years. Too damn cold.

Hope you guys get pounded tomorrow, looks like many will exceed your annual avg snow totals.
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For DC, these are rough estimates, using 10:1 ratios...I could see the case for higher (cold/fatties) and lower (sleet mixing in). Flip doesn't mean to rain. Could be to sleet. This is model interpretation. Not my personal forecast. For purposes of this analysis I didn't make any assumptions about heavy snow overcoming the column. The flip times are estimates of when I think the column is no longer at or below 0.

0z NAM - flip time - 6pm, Snow - 3"

0z GFS - flip time - 6:30 pm, Snow - 5.5"

0z GGEM - flip time - 9pm - Snow - 6.5"

0z UKMET - flip time - 7pm - Snow - 3.5"

0z 4kNAM - flip time - 6pm - Snow - 2"

0z RGEM - flip time - 7pm - Snow - 5.5"

0z Euro - flip time - 7pm - Snow - 5"

These are the posts that I lurk here for. Thanks for this, great info.

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Haha, I wish I lived in Western Loudoun.

Western Loudoun/east Jefferson is heaven in the mid atlantic second only to Western Maryland. They got a whole new climatic zone! Meteorologists have to desperately scramble every winter just to keep up! They got massive altitude. I have seen those guys get 8 inches of snow and frigid while I have brown grass and 40 with wall to wall sunshine. I wish I could spend a winter there, I'd show those folks how to clear snow with a shovel lol

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I dunno if we will really torch on Sunday with snowpack and NW winds

That's was my thinking as well. If we torch. I don't think it will last long. We could get one of those weird warm-up^ for a short time. Then the good ole NW winds bring back that crisp, clean, cold NW wind back in. The remaining snowpack should freeze up like concrete.

It least that's what I'm hoping for.

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High res RGEM continues to be the voice of reason.

 

H7CbW5i.gif

According to that map, if I am interpreting this correctly, an inch and a half of water in Maryland. I hope from the very bottom of my white snow-streaked soul, that it is ALL SNOW for Maryland. They definitely deserve every last dendrite after last Monday

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FINAL CALL for DC proper.

 

10am - Noon: Light snow starts during this window.  Could become steadier by Noon.  Temps in the low to mid 20s.

 

Noon to 6pm: Snow, moderate to heavy at times.  Sleet may mix in, especially toward the end of this window.  Temps rise from the mid 20s to around freezing.

 

6pm - 10pm: Snow mixes with and changes over to sleet.  Sleet then mixes with and changes over to freezing rain/rain.  Temps in the low 30s.

 

10pm - 6am: Freezing rain/rain becomes all rain.  Temps rise into the mid 30s. (Rain could potentially freeze on contact for a time at 33 or even 34)

 

Total snow/sleet accumulation: 3-6"

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00z Run:

 

3nWJmcd.png

I think a foot for parts of Maryland is reasonable. However, I'll take that 10 over my house, chop it in half, and expect about 4 (maybe). 4 is climo in one storm here. I'd say 2 to 4 here, but Maryland could pick up a foot, their climo is quite different, especially more north and more west. I hope they get it!  :snowing:

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https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow

FINAL CALL for DC proper.

10am - Noon: Light snow starts during this window. Could become steadier by Noon. Temps in the low to mid 20s.

Noon to 6pm: Snow, moderate to heavy at times. Sleet may mix in, especially toward the end of this window. Temps rise from the mid 20s to around freezing.

6pm - 10pm: Snow mixes with and changes over to sleet. Sleet then mixes with and changes over to freezing rain/rain. Temps in the low 30s.

10pm - 6am: Freezing rain/rain becomes all rain. Temps rise into the mid 30s. (Rain could potentially freeze on contact for a time at 33 or even 34)

Total snow/sleet accumulation: 3-6"

Your outlook looks good to me. Quite a turnaround from a few days ago when it appeared that a wall-to-wall rain event was on tap. Thanks for the Euro updates (especially the favorable 1 AM updates). :) Enjoy the snow!

MDstorm

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