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Snow/ice storm disco Feb 21-22


Damage In Tolland

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Rap indicates snow breaking out early- mid afternoon with a decent burst perhaps followed by some lighter returns or a brief lull , especially in western areas between about 6 and 8 pm, with the heaviest action between about 8 pm and midnight while the mixing line is penetrating northward in southeastern and southern portions by the end of the run.

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2015 meet 1936 if we get a quick melt out and alot of rain nam trended even colder all snow here

1936 featured very heavy snow in NNE. This year is closer to average.

I am less concerned with a 1936 scenario barring big March snows up north which certainly cannot be ruled out. Right now though the primary concern is for smaller basins in E MA, E CT, and RI. Also the potential for local flooding due to blocked storm drains in those areas.

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massive flooding on the ct river was the result of an ice jam at the holyoke dam i thought? when it let go caused massive flooding in springfield this year ice is just as thick so i could see that happening if we warm quickly with rain 

1936 featured very heavy snow in NNE. This year is closer to average.

I am less concerned with a 1936 scenario barring big March snows up north which certainly cannot be ruled out. Right now though the primary concern is for smaller basins in E MA, E CT, and RI. Also the potential for local flooding due to blocked storm drains in those areas.

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1936 featured very heavy snow in NNE. This year is closer to average.

I am less concerned with a 1936 scenario barring big March snows up north which certainly cannot be ruled out. Right now though the primary concern is for smaller basins in E MA, E CT, and RI. Also the potential for local flooding due to blocked storm drains in those areas.

 

Yeah exactly. 1936 was epic for snow pack across NNE... this winter it's average to above average. The issue will be more flash flooding on the smaller basins in eastern areas of SNE. 

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massive flooding on the ct river was the result of an ice jam at the holyoke dam i thought? when it let go caused massive flooding in springfield this year ice is just as thick so i could see that happening if we warm quickly with rain

Not sure of the specifics below the dam but flooding extended well north into CNE and beyond just the CT River Basin. And IIRC the CT river hit its highest levels all time in many places so beyond just the ice the water was insanely high.

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so far...March is the big NNE month and with this years cold should produce, we are the Midwest last year

 

Possibly - though there have been huge flood control measures put in along the Connecticut River and its tributaries since 1936 plus snow pack in NNE is running at or a bit above normal. Nothing too concerning IMO. 

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Possibly - though there have been huge flood control measures put in along the Connecticut River and its tributaries since 1936 plus snow pack in NNE is running at or a bit above normal. Nothing too concerning IMO. 

Think the ice jam issue would be the problem, 1936 ain't happening again with the flood control, hopefully we have a gentle melt out. Discussion here

http://w1.weather.gov/data/BOX/ESFBOX

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1936 featured very heavy snow in NNE. This year is closer to average.

I am less concerned with a 1936 scenario barring big March snows up north which certainly cannot be ruled out. Right now though the primary concern is for smaller basins in E MA, E CT, and RI. Also the potential for local flooding due to blocked storm drains in those areas.

Snowmelt alone may cause flooding in limited areas, but for widespread severe flooding, a significant rain event would be needed. I've yet to observe major flooding from just snowmelt. 1936 (before my time) included some rains, 1987 (which eclipsed 1936 on central Maine rivers) was caused by 4-7" of rain after a week of 50s/60s in late March, and the 2008 record floods on the St.John came from 3-4" rain at peak melting of that winter's record snows.

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Snowmelt alone may cause flooding in limited areas, but for widespread severe flooding, a significant rain event would be needed. I've yet to observe major flooding from just snowmelt. 1936 (before my time) included some rains, 1987 (which eclipsed 1936 on central Maine rivers) was caused by 4-7" of rain after a week of 50s/60s in late March, and the 2008 record floods on the St.John came from 3-4" rain at peak melting of that winter's record snows.

 

I could see where a quick melt might present some localized problems along smaller rivers in eastern areas given the depth there.  Given the not-so-extraordinary amounts in the CT river watershed, I think it would need to be accompanied by a heavy rain.

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Come on--you're the best teacher for doing so. Where are your obscure model and observations pointing to why this will continue SE?

I've been entirely optimistic for both the trough and this event. Nobody notices when I'm being hopelessly optimistic like the reverend.

It'll continue south because it's getting shredded, it's the overall multi day trend and its butt cold over here.

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