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Snow/ice storm disco Feb 21-22


Damage In Tolland

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Based on my limited, non-existent, high level of no meteorological knowledge (i.e. flipping a coin) I say that this one does not over perform as far as snow goes, and lays down, exactly, almost approixmately 3.75” in my area.

yep, 3-6  has been my number for us, hoping the lower layers stay colder than progged, seen these over preform before or quickly wash out, nowcast sit

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My forecast is somewhat bullish.  I'd shave an inch off each end of that range and that's where we'll end up.

 

Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning...then cloudy with snow likely in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Not as cold with highs in the lower 20s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Saturday Night: Snow...mainly in the evening. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Not as cool with lows in the lower 20s. Temperature rising into the lower 30s after midnight. South winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

 

7.9/-6

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I just watched the local news stations, Ryans map on nbc30 is by far the most reasonable. Most stations have 1-3 for all the shore including the sw corner where it is likely to bust. Even Fox61 has 1-3 up to the 84 corridor and 3-6 NW of there.

WTNH has 2-4 for the majority of the state with 1-2 SE, and 4-6 extreme NW hills.

Those forecasts are gonna fall flat on their face, ryans and spencers maps fit the situation almost perfectly, no way SWCT gets 1-3 unless some major shift in the models happen imo.

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I just watched the local news stations, Ryans map on nbc30 is by far the most reasonable. Most stations have 1-3 for all the shore including the sw corner where it is likely to bust. Even Fox61 has 1-3 up to the 84 corridor and 3-6 NW of there.

WTNH has 2-4 for the majority of the state with 1-2 SE, and 4-6 extreme NW hills.

Those forecasts are gonna fall flat on their face, ryans and spencers maps fit the situation almost perfectly, no way SWCT gets 1-3 unless some major shift in the models happen imo.

I posted my map on FB...which is very close to Ryan's. But honestly, I could see most SE CT verifying closer to 3". The Bufkit for NAM and GFS has 0.3" QPF falling as snow right down to GON...and they are on the warmer side of guidance. I still think 1-3" is a good call in the SE given how easily they torch, but wouldn't be shocked to see even some 4" amounts close to the shoreline.

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I posted my map on FB...which is very close to Ryan's. But honestly, I could see most SE CT verifying closer to 3". The Bufkit for NAM and GFS has 0.3" QPF falling as snow right down to GON...and they are on the warmer side of guidance. I still think 1-3" is a good call in the SE given how easily they torch, but wouldn't be shocked to see even some 4" amounts close to the shoreline.

I agree. I was tempted to go 2-4" for sect but my experience in these things is take the over in swct and the under in sect so we stuck with 1-3. Definitely bust potential there though I think.
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