CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What in the sam hell is the LAM? 2.5Km RGEM. It's seems a bit too wet all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The LAM is a first generation version of the LAME which is the Limited Application Massive Error model developed by Canadian scientists in response to public demand in our country to have something that reflects our national culture. I wish I were kidding. On another subject, would say expect 5-10 inches of snow about where those models are showing it and mixed slop of all kinds south to the outer coast where it will be mostly rain and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The LAM is a first generation version of the LAME which is the Limited Application Massive Error model developed by Canadian scientists in response to public demand in our country to have something that reflects our national culture. I wish I were kidding. On another subject, would say expect 5-10 inches of snow about where those models are showing it and mixed slop of all kinds south to the outer coast where it will be mostly rain and drizzle. ... Just imagining some governmental think tank over at the Canadian Environmental complex ... brow raking over how to engineer the worst possible tool for the most possible tax-payer bucks... We have our own version of that mistake down this way. It's called the GFS; A.k.a., the Good For Sh!t model... Although actually, as of late there is a growing contingency of those that want to drop it's trou' and assume the knee position over it - but that's another saga ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I basically just moved the entire last 3 pages to the OT banter thread...trying to keep this thread storm specific only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nam gets colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 18z NAM not bad looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nam gets colder That would be a very, very cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Local met is calling for around 2-3 inches very wet sounds right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nam gets colderI think it's all about the mid levels away from extreme SE MA. If they're cold enough, we snow. 3-6" right into BOS on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Advisories being issued with the afternoon update for 1 PM tomorrow to 1 PM Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Def gonna be some 6-9 inch amounts in a few spots of SNE.. But are they widespread enough to go with warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The LAME...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Def gonna be some 6-9 inch amounts in a few spots of SNE.. But are they widespread enough to go with warnings?I could see your area over to southern ORH Co. verify those amounts. Even 4-8" would require a warning IMO - especially given the augmented impact with the 25-35" already OTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Going 1-3" far SECT, 3-6" for the rest of the state and am debating introducing a 4-8" zone in the NW hills depending on the 18z RGEM. Made up both maps and will decide which one to use after that run. For the region as a whole, I like 3-6" for just about everywhere except for SEMA and the immediate eastern coastline. Someone will see a localized 8" lolly either in NWCT or in the Berks/ORH hills, but not confident enough in where that will be to forecast it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 I could see your area over to southern ORH Co. verify those amounts. Even 4-8" would require a warning IMO - especially given the augmented impact with the 25-35" already OTG. A lot of the hi res stuff and even the 12z GFS had those areas you mentioned in the 6-8 inch range. If it stays all snow which seems to be the trend today..the higher end amounts will verify. Hopefully it's a paster. but I think it starts powdery and gets a bit more dense as the night goes on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 H92 0C on the 18Z NAM still gets up into SE NH with precip falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 H92 0C on the 18Z NAM still gets up into SE NH with precip falling.I call BS on those projections. It's all about the midlevels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Because precip is aggressive there and it's cold with light s winds. But, seems a bit high there. I think they're expecting advisory level (doesn't take much there) front end then rain. That's the forecast for south Jersey. GYX/CAR have advisory level snow for most of their CWAs, lots of 4-6" pixels, with some low-end warning in the Penobscot Bay area. Seems logical given models. GYX guesses the >32 temps Sunday stop about at Rt 2 - fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 4:30pm no advisories/warnings for SNE yet? I guess they will be out shortly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 4:30pm no advisories/warnings for SNE yet? I guess they will be out shortly? BOX has WWA's in the grids for the entire region except Cape/Islands per the discussion and they are showing up in the HWO, not sure why they aren't in the P&C yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 4:30pm no advisories/warnings for SNE yet? I guess they will be out shortly? Bam! And just like that advisories show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Rgem thumper the dumper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I call BS on those projections. It's all about the midlevels 925mb really isn't impacted by the sfc/snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 BOX going 3-5" for everyone except Cape/Islands per the advisory, updated map not out yet. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA427 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015CTZ002>004-MAZ002>021-026-RIZ001>007-210530-/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0017.150221T1800Z-150222T1800Z/HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...AYER...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT427 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PMEST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS INEFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY.* LOCATIONS...INCLUDE ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXCEPT CAPE CODAND THE ISLANDS.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICEACCUMULATION.* TIMING...LATE SATURDAY BEGINNING AS SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO ASNOW - FREEZING RAIN MIX...PERHAPS EVEN PLAIN RAIN...SATURDAYNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.* IMPACTS...ANY SNOW / ICE WILL MAKE FOR SLICK SURFACES ANDHAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. WITH THE THREAT OF A WET SNOWAND/OR RAIN...STRUCTURAL COLLAPSES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THOSEROOFS THAT HAVE A REMNANT SNOWPACK. RAIN ALONE PRESENTS THETHREAT OF URBAN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS DRAINS ARE SNOW-CLOGGED.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE ISFORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS...BUT ACCUMULATIONS AREEXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANY SNOW OR ICE WOULD RESULT IN SLIPPERYCONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WHEN TEMPERATURESARE BELOW FREEZING...MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ONBRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP.&&$FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE ATWWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTONYOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK ATWWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTONYOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT@NWSBOSTON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I call BS on those projections. It's all about the midlevels It's deep layer SWrly flow. Yes, the antecedent airmass is cold, but there's no CAD to lock the low level cold in place. Date: 36 hour Eta valid 6Z SUN 22 FEB 15 Station: KORH Latitude: 42.27 Longitude: -71.88 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 137 SFC 991 213 2.2 2.0 99 0.2 2.1 196 7 276.1 276.8 275.7 288.2 4.45 2 950 551 2.6 2.4 98 0.3 2.5 200 35 279.8 280.7 278.2 293.0 4.77 3 900 989 2.5 2.3 99 0.2 2.4 206 61 284.1 285.0 280.5 298.2 5.03 4 850 1449 -0.6 -0.7 99 0.2 -0.6 209 71 285.6 286.3 280.3 297.7 4.26 5 800 1931 -3.4 -3.7 98 0.2 -3.6 216 76 287.5 288.1 280.4 298.0 3.64 6 750 2438 -6.3 -6.6 97 0.3 -6.4 221 79 289.8 290.3 280.8 298.8 3.10 7 700 2975 -9.3 -9.8 96 0.5 -9.5 226 74 292.2 292.7 281.3 300.0 2.59 8 650 3544 -12.5 -13.5 93 0.9 -12.8 225 75 294.8 295.2 281.8 301.1 2.08 9 600 4153 -13.4 -14.8 89 1.5 -13.8 226 78 300.6 301.0 284.1 306.9 2.01 10 550 4814 -15.5 -17.3 86 1.8 -16.0 233 73 305.7 306.0 285.8 311.4 1.78 11 500 5525 -20.7 -23.4 79 2.7 -21.3 240 70 307.8 308.0 285.9 311.6 1.16 Everyone will get some snow, but those in denial about some rain need to mentally prepare themselves for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM really cranks up the WAA 850 inflow ramped up this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Same BOX map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Same BOX map? No update yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nam is still a bit warmer than i think it will play out. Gonna be a fun one to watch. I think 3-6 for bos. 4-8 for ORH.Mixed bag will show itself from PWM-BOS-PVD-NYC southeast of this line give or take some mileage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Based on my limited, non-existent, high level of no meteorological knowledge (i.e. flipping a coin) I say that this one does not over perform as far as snow goes, and lays down, exactly, almost approixmately 3.75” in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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