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Snow/ice storm disco Feb 21-22


Damage In Tolland

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12z Euro ticked colder at 925/850Ts, good consensus we break 100

 

I think there's good reason to believe BOS stays at or below freezing at 850 for the majority of the event... guidance reached its warmest point a day or two ago and has ticked colder run by run since, with most now indicating the line gets there or just south of there at the height of the push.

 

925's are another story... looks pretty weird to me. But yeah, this should help the push to 100" now that 2014-2015 has ground up Leon's bones to make his bread and has begun the boss battle with 1995-1996.

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I think there's good reason to believe BOS stays at or below freezing at 850 for the majority of the event... guidance reached its warmest point a day or two ago and has ticked colder run by run since, with most now indicating the line gets there or just south of there at the height of the push.

 

925's are another story... looks pretty weird to me. But yeah, this should help the push to 100" now that 2014-2015 has ground up Leon's bones to make his bread and has begun the boss battle with 1995-1996.

 

and re: the boss battle, would be nice to get a KO punch rather than a TKO nickle-dime our way to the top... a KO KU storm to seal it

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My only interest in this sloppy system is the 100" mark for Boston... need 1.3" and I think we break it

Yep. We won't get there this weekend, but the closer we get to 107.6" the better. Certainly possible we could crack that in the next 7 days.

 

And yeah, let's blow it out of the water. One of those records where the #2 doesn't even come close to #1. 

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@ericfisher: Vast majority of what falls this weekend is *snow* according to the 12z ECMWF. Diving into the new stuff now, updates shortly.

Fisher is a snow weenie.  Kind of refreshing.  Bouchard will probably be calling for rain all the way past 495 b/c of the warm Atlantic :lol:

 

I think 2-4" of high water content snow is likely from a line of PVD-BOS N&W; 3-5" (spot 6") BDL-TOL-LWN N&W. 

 

C-2" (spot 3") SE of PVD-BOS. 

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Because precip is aggressive there and it's cold with light s winds. 

 

But, seems a bit high there.

Yeah I don't buy the 12" in DCA, I've noticed that the model likes to be very aggressive in the "jackpot" areas and almost always busts high with amounts there(For example 1/24, the IVT, the clippers earlier in the winter, etc.). It's pretty good at pinning down where the best precip will be, but then goes crazy there and you have to cut it back. (Maybe as a result of it's super high resolution? I've noticed NAM/4km NAM do the same thing). 

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