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February 20th-21st Winter Storm OBS/Discussion


LithiaWx

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The best I can do is my "Point Forecast" box that I have over my road on NWS website, which says 1214'. I'm right on the Patrick Co/Henry Co border, highest elevation in Henry Co. I live in a community called Sanville. Bassett itself is about 900'.

 

 

 

Some of the highest elevations of Henry County are found in the Southwest corner. Most of the Ridgeway and Horsepasture districts are above 1,000ft with a few higher points above 1,200. Chestnut Knob in Ridgeway is the highest point which is a little over 1,520ft. 

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Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1111 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER LIKELY BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY COMBINED WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 15 BELOW ZERO WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
WEEKEND WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND EVEN
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE APPEAR
LIKELY FOR FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.

SURRY-WILKES-YADKIN-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOBSON...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...
ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA
1111 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...ALONG
  WITH 0.10 TO 0.20 INCH ICE ACCUMULATION. SLEET ACCUMULATION ALSO
  LIKELY.


* LOCATIONS...PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING THE ROANOKE AND
  SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS.

* HAZARD TYPES...VERY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS THROUGH FRIDAY
  MORNING...THEN SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
  THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO THROUGH
  FRIDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...LOW WIND CHILLS INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WINTRY
  WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...VERY LOW WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND
  HYPOTHERMIA IF LEFT EXPOSED TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES.
  SNOW AND ICE COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND POWER OUTAGES
  BY LATER SATURDAY.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH...DECREASING
  TOWARD DAYBREAK.

* TEMPERATURES...5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

 

 

 

After seeing the 0z models, I'm puzzled?  :huh:

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Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

1111 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

...ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER LIKELY BEGINNING

FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY COMBINED WITH BITTERLY

COLD TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 15 BELOW ZERO WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO

AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS

20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE

WEEKEND WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST

AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND EVEN

FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO

SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE APPEAR

LIKELY FOR FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.

SURRY-WILKES-YADKIN-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOBSON...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...

ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA

1111 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT

THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...ALONG

  WITH 0.10 TO 0.20 INCH ICE ACCUMULATION. SLEET ACCUMULATION ALSO

  LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS...PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING THE ROANOKE AND

  SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS.

* HAZARD TYPES...VERY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS THROUGH FRIDAY

  MORNING...THEN SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT

  THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO THROUGH

  FRIDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...LOW WIND CHILLS INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WINTRY

  WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...VERY LOW WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND

  HYPOTHERMIA IF LEFT EXPOSED TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES.

  SNOW AND ICE COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND POWER OUTAGES

  BY LATER SATURDAY.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH...DECREASING

  TOWARD DAYBREAK.

* TEMPERATURES...5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

 

 

 

After seeing the 0z models, I'm puzzled?  :huh:

Me to, I seen the post on FB somewhere around 11:00 I ask them was they still thinking that way after the big shift in the NAM and RGEM? They haven't responded back to me yet... They usually respond back to me on FB so IDK maybe they not buying the 00z NAM and RGEM? But I'm like you puzzled!!!

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I was wondering when you were going to chime in lol. This will be interesting to follow tomorrow no doubt.

 

Still out of the country- but some folks traveling back Saturday were wondering if their flight would be affected. I told than unless the airlines freak out and cancel flights they should be OK. I am not back until Mon.

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Well... Kind of scratching my head this morning as winter storm warning products are issued for the area. 4-7 inches and .2 of ice accretion? I've seen the nam and it looks as ugly as no tomorrow, however the GFS looks a tad better from 0z. 850s are precariously close almost too close for comfort, but it's almost short range model time so cheers to a better looking forecast because Blacksburg have pushed there poker chips all in on a highly sketchy setup for sure.

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Well... Kind of scratching my head this morning as winter storm warning products are issued for the area. 4-7 inches and .2 of ice accretion? I've seen the nam and it looks as ugly as no tomorrow, however the GFS looks a tad better from 0z. 850s are precariously close almost too close for comfort, but it's almost short range model time so cheers to a better looking forecast because Blacksburg have pushed there poker chips all in on a highly sketchy setup for sure.

Well they downgraded me to a WWA which I'm not surprised at!  up to 1 inch of snow. I figure they don't want to drop it all at once just in case models bring it back a little? Then they can always upgrade if need be.. JMO

 

 

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE

OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NOT AS COLD. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE

AROUND 19. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN...SNOW LIKELY

WITH FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN

INCH. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NOT AS COOL

WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS

10 ABOVE IN THE MORNING.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

TEMPERATURE RISING TO AROUND 40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS

AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. NOT

AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...

BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN

70 PERCENT.

 

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can you believe models are coming in dryer now, what a winter.  why can't we get a ramped up winter storm that has some bite to it?  these things start out looking good then always trend worse.  why can't we ever for once trend better, not asking much just for once.  :axe:

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And, here's the recent thoughts from GSP:

 

 

WHICH BRINGS US TO TONIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES A
RECENT TREND OF LIMITING THE EASTERN EXTENT OF ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH ACTIVATING A WARM
FRONTAL-LIKE FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST...AND IN FACT RADARS
TO THE WEST ARE ALREADY PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL RETURNS. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH SCRAPING THAT WARM FRONTAL FEATURE ALONG
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MTNS TONIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP E OF THE MTNS. WILL BACK OFF A BIT MORE ON THE
PRECIP CHANCES E OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND S OF I-40 IN RESPONSE
...AND
WILL ALSO BACK OFF WITH THE POP ACROSS THE MTNS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...OWING TO UNCERTAINTY SEEN IN THE MODEL TREND. THE DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO QPF LEAVES US WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL
EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE MTNS. AM INCLINED TO
ISSUE AN ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF ONSET.
PRECIP TYPES ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A CLASSIC TRANSITION OF SNOW-
SLEET-FREEZING RAIN AS THE WARMER AIR INVADES FROM THE SW THRU
DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER THE MTNS. THIS STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO
REACH WARNING CRITERIA OVER PARTS OF THE MTNS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
QPF IS TOO LOW RIGHT NOW.

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 Interesting. Check this change for Jackson, MS. It clearly is further south than models anticipated and that obviously COULD have further south vs expected implications later today. Here was the 4:23 AM CST fcast:MSZ048-210315-  HINDS-  INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON  423 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015     TODAY  CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGHS IN  THE MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.    

 Now, here's the  6:42 AM CDT update as there's currently ZR there:

MSZ048-210330-  HINDS-  INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON  642 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015     ..FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING       REST OF TODAY  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN  THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE  AFTERNOON. CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO  15 MPH. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.    
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Just watch the radar, it'll clue you in better than model guidance

 

Just took a look and there are plenty of echoes in Mississippi and central Alabama moving due east.  Looks like some returns coming SE from up in Tennessee as well.  Guess we'll have to see it play out.  Good news is we already have a pretty thick cloud deck this morning, so won't have a chance to really get the sun out and warm up.

 

- Buck

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  OK, now look what has happened in the northern portion of south AL, where they had earlier not forecasted
any precip today! Earlier fcast was this: 

MSZ067-210030-  WAYNE-  INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESBORO  317 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015     TODAY  PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

And then this comes:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL   741 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015       UPDATE   WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN   ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE   MORNING. RADAR SHOWS PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MOVING EAST   ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION NOTED UPSTREAM OVER   CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING   RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER BUTLER COUNTY...AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE   TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ARE IN THE 20S. VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION   IS EXPECTED...BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A   FEW SLICK SPOTS ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. TEMPERATURES   ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING...AND BE ABOVE FREEZING BY   MID TO LATE MORNING. ALSO UPDATED POPS...WEATHER AND SKY COVER IN   GRIDS. UPDATED ZONES ALREADY ISSUED. 12/DS  

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 Looking back at even the newest GFS run (6Z), cloudiness is way ahead of progged in MS/AL/GA. That also tells me that the model consensus is way off and we'll need to look at the radars very carefully today.

How many busted forecasts are there going to be just this week? This is getting to a point to where it is beyond ridiculous with these models. The folks in the jackson miss. area did not have a clue there was going to be ice on some of the roads on there way to work this morning. We can hit a target the size of a dime from thousands a miles a way with precision with a 2 ton missle but, our technology with weather forecasts is having a hard time in 24 hours of forecasting getting it right and seems to be getting even worse??

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 Interesting. Check this change for Jackson, MS. It clearly is further south than models anticipated and that obviously COULD have further south vs expected implications later today. Here was the 4:23 AM CST fcast:MSZ048-210315-  HINDS-  INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON  423 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015     TODAY  CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGHS IN  THE MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.    

 Now, here's the  6:42 AM CDT update as there's currently ZR there:

MSZ048-210330-  HINDS-  INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON  642 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015     ..FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING       REST OF TODAY  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN  THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE  AFTERNOON. CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO  15 MPH. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.    

yep saw that, sure wish the gulf would open up.  must be closed tight.

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