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Norlun Trough Discussion - Feb. 19


NorEastermass128

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Mesoanalysis looks well west with the convergence compared to the hires surface wind products forecasted by rap.

 

HRRR is catching on and would be west with the NAM.   RAP is east with the CMC.

 

Who knows, will be a nowcast.  But there should be a pretty intense, blossoming blob of moisture to our south mid evening tonight.

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Hit's me pretty hard too, not epic but with ratios it's advisory +

RAP/NAM/RGEM all agree, a blossoming area of moisture will move over eastern MA or the Cape tonight. Just looking at Ginxy's mid levels it looks like this may be more impressive than modeled even now.

You sure ratios will be good on cape

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Looks like the NEK may get into the tip of the finger of the heaviest QPF axis.

 

850mb & 925mb winds look to be South or at least ESE. This will help for areas along W-E barriers (Sheffield Heights). Newark, East Haven, Sutton area maybe up into Willoughby area. However the flow is very very light less than 10mph. Not a big orographic event for the NEK. Might have to watch for northern edge dry air sneaking in but I couldn't rule out 2-4" isolated 5" in enhanced areas. 

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All five of us .. lol! Gonna lean heavily on Jeff and Chris for updates

I guess this is the part of the threat where we speculate about when and where the warnings will be hoisted. My guess is that, as often seems to be the case, the Cumberland-York line will be the dividing line - with counties to the NE of that boundary getting warnings and to the SW getting advisories (I live less than a mile NE of the county line). Funny how, with all the model waffling over the last two days, this appears to be settling into a climo-typical setup with a midcoast bullseye. Still not a done deal, obviously.

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1250 PM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS E NEW ENG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOWER CLOUDS CONFINED TO MUCH OF E MA AND RI AND GUIDANCE IS
EXPANDING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...SO
EXPECT SUNSHINE TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE CT VALLEY
AND WESTERN NEW ENG.

HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS E MA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY REACHING INTO W NEW ENGLAND
LATE TODAY AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ASSOCD WITH AN
INVERTED TROF. ANY SNOWFALL TODAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO 850 MB TEMPS OF -15C
TO -18C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS ALONG THE EAST MASS COAST DURING
THE NIGHT. THE HIRES WRF-ARW KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS MORE SPECIFIC TO
THE MASS NORTH SHORE WHILE THE WRF-NMM SPREADS POPS TO ALL OF
EASTERN MASS. GEM REGIONAL FAVORS SNSH IN ESSEX COUNTY AND ALONG
THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST. UNCERTAINTY DUE TO SMALL SCALE EFFECTS
ON THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY ON OUTER CAPE COD AND ON
CAPE ANN/NORTH SHORE. IF WE GO WITH LIKELY POPS...WILL HOLD THEM
JUST OFF THE COAST OF CAPE ANN.

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I guess this is the part of the threat where we speculate about when and where the warnings will be hoisted. My guess is that, as often seems to be the case, the Cumberland-York line will be the dividing line - with counties to the NE of that boundary getting warnings and to the SW getting advisories (I live less than a mile NE of the county line). Funny how, with all the model waffling over the last two days, this appears to be settling into a climo-typical setup with a midcoast bullseye. Still not a done deal, obviously.

Yeah, no accumulation predictions from me other than I'd wager some town slant-weenies 2 feet

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